Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.     

Biogeochemical patterns in a river network along a land use gradient

The Bode catchment (Germany) shows strong land use gradients from forested parts of the National Park (23 % of total land cover) to agricultural (70 %) and urbanised areas (7 %). It is part of the Terrestrial Environmental Observatories of the German Helmholtz association. We performed a biogeochemical analysis of the entire river network. Surface water was sampled at 21 headwaters and at ten downstream sites, before (in early spring) and during the growing season (in late summer). Many parameters showed lower concentrations in headwaters than in downstream reaches, among them nutrients (ammonium, nitrate and phosphorus), dissolved copper and seston dry mass. Nitrate and phosphorus concentrations were positively related to the proportion of agricultural area within the catchment. Punctual anthropogenic loads affected some parameters such as chloride and arsenic. Chlorophyll a concentration and total phosphorus in surface waters were positively related. The concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was higher in summer than in spring, whereas the molecular size of DOC was lower in summer. The specific UV absorption at 254 nm, indicating the content of humic substances, was higher in headwaters than in downstream reaches and was positively related to the proportion of forest within the catchment. CO₂ oversaturation of the water was higher downstream compared with headwaters and was higher in summer than in spring. It was correlated negatively with oxygen saturation and positively with DOC concentration but negatively with DOC quality (molecular size and humic content). A principle component analysis clearly separated the effects of site (44 %) and season (15 %), demonstrating the strong effect of land use on biogeochemical parameters.     

Environmental Modeling and Methods for Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. A methodological framework for evaluating the global health-related outcomes of outdoor and indoor (household) air pollution is presented and validated for the year 2005. Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 are estimated with a combination of energy and atmospheric models, with detailed representation of urban and rural spatial exposures. Populations dependent on solid fuels are established with household survey data. Health impacts for outdoor and household air pollution are independently calculated using the fractions of disease that can be attributed to ambient air pollution exposure and solid fuel use. Estimated ambient pollution concentrations indicate that more than 80% of the population exceeds the WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 2005. In addition, 3.26?billion people were found to use solid fuel for cooking in three regions of Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific Asia in 2005. Outdoor air pollution results in 2.7?million deaths or 23?million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) while household air pollution from solid fuel use and related indoor smoke results in 2.1?million deaths or 41.6?million DALYs. The higher morbidity from household air pollution can be attributed to children below the age of 5 in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia. The burden of disease from air pollution is found to be significant, thus indicating the importance of policy interventions.     

Work values: Development of a new three-dimensional structure based on confirmatory smallest space analysis

We tested the psychological structure of the work values ratings of 119,167 Canadian workers using confirmatory smallest space analysis (SSA). Contrary to our hypotheses, the SSA did not support a two-dimensional radex structure, but suggested a three-dimensional cylindrex structure composed of three facets: (a) A modality facet comprised of four types of work values (cognitive, instrumental, social, and prestige) forming angular sectors of a circle; (b) a growth-orientation facet with growth-related work aspects located closest to the center of the circle and context-related work aspects located in the peripheral ring; and (c) a level of focus facet that divided the overall cylindrical structure into three separate vertical levels (individual, job/organizational, and societal). The findings extend the theory of work values by providing a richer typology of work values and a more complete picture of the complex structure of their inter-relations. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin,Nevada1

Carroll, Rosemary W.H., Greg Pohll, David McGraw, Chris Garner, Anna Knust, Doug Boyle, Tim Minor, Scott Bassett, and Karl Pohlmann, 2010. Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin, Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):554-573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00434.x Abstract: An integrated surface water and groundwater model of Mason Valley, Nevada is constructed to replicate the movement of water throughout the different components of the demand side of water resources in the Walker River system. The Mason Valley groundwater surface water model (MVGSM) couples the river/drain network with agricultural demand areas and the groundwater system using MODFLOW, MODFLOW’s streamflow routing package, as well as a surface water linking algorithm developed for the project. The MVGSM is capable of simulating complex feedback mechanisms between the groundwater and surface water system that is not dependent on linearity among the related variables. The spatial scale captures important hydrologic components while the monthly stress periods allow for seasonal evaluation. A simulation spanning an 11-year record shows the methodology is robust under diverse climatic conditions. The basin-wide modeling approach predicts a river system generally gaining during the summer irrigation period but losing during winter months and extended periods of drought. River losses to the groundwater system approach 25% of the river’s annual budget. Reducing diversions to hydrologic response units will increase river flows exiting the model domain, but also has the potential to increase losses from the river to groundwater storage.     

Phosphorus recovery from wastewater--expert survey on present use and future potential

Today, a variety of different approaches to the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater, sludge, and sludge ash exist. These approaches differ basically by the origin of the used matter (wastewater, sludge liquor, fermented or nonfermented sludge ash) and the process (precipitation, wet-chemical extraction, and thermal treatment). To rate them according to their characteristics, the latter were phrased as hypotheses and subjected to an international expert survey. The survey showed that phosphorus recovery is expected to become an established process over the next 20 years in industrialized countries for economic reasons. A decisive aspect in this regard will be the quality of the produced fertilizer. Simple technologies such as the recovery from sludge liquor seem to be preferred. If sludge is incinerated, phosphorus recycling from ash then becomes more interesting and has to be considered. Phosphorus recovery and source-separating sanitation technologies are more appropriate for industrialized countries than for developing countries. Because the growing awareness of environmental issues will prevent sludge from being used agriculturally in an increasing number of countries in the next decade, the market potential for nutrient recovery technologies will increase in the immediate future.     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.     

On the limits of the air pollution predictability: the case of the surface ozone at Athens, Greece

Purpose  

The aim of this study is to investigate the potential effects of increased urbanization in the Athens city, Greece on the intrinsic features of the temporal fluctuations of the surface ozone concentration (SOC).     

Chlorinated vapor intrusion indicators,tracers, and surrogates (ITS): Supplemental measurements for minimizing the number of chemical indoor air samples—Part 1: Vapor intrusion driving forces and related environmental factors

Vapor intrusion (VI) assessment is complicated by spatial and temporal variability, largely due to compounded interactions among the many individual factors that influence the vapor migration pathway from subsurface sources to indoor air. Past research on highly variable indoor air datasets demonstrates that conventional sampling schemes can result in false negative determinations of potential risk corresponding to reasonable maximum exposures (RME). While high‐frequency chemical analysis of individual chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) in indoor air is conceptually appealing, it remains largely impractical when numerous buildings are involved and particularly for long‐term monitoring. As more is learned about the challenges with indoor air sampling for VI assessment, it has become clear that alternative approaches are needed to help guide discrete sampling efforts and reduce sampling requirements while maintaining acceptable confidence in exposure characterization. Indicators, tracers, and surrogates (ITS), which include a collection of quantifiable metrics and tools, have been suggested as a potential solution for making VI pathway assessment and long‐term monitoring more informative, efficient, and cost‐effective. This review, compilation, and evaluation of ITS demonstrates how even low numbers of indoor air CVOC samples can provide high levels of confidence for representing the RME levels (e.g., 95th percentile) often sought by regulatory agencies for less than chronic effects. A two‐part compilation of available evidence for select low‐cost ITS is presented, with Part 1 focused on introducing the concepts of ITS, meteorologically based ITS, and the evidence from data‐rich studies to support lower cost CVOC VI assessments. Part 1 includes the results of quantitative analyses on two robust residential building VI datasets, where numerous supplemental metrics were collected concurrently with indoor air concentration data. These are supplemented with additional less‐intensive studies in different circumstances. These analyses show that certain ITS metrics and tools, including differential temperature, differential pressure, and radon (in Part 2), can provide benefits to VI assessment and long‐term monitoring. This includes indicators that narrow the assessment period needed to capture RME conditions, tracers that enhance understanding of the conceptual site model, and aid in the identification of preferential pathways and surrogates that support or substitute for CVOC sampling results. The results of this review provide insight into the scientifically supportable uses of ITS.     

Re-evaluation of the yield response to phosphorus fertilization based on meta-analyses of long-term field experiments

Phosphorus (P) fertilizer recommendations in most European countries are based on plant-available soil P contents and long-term field experiments. Site-specific conditions are often neglected, resulting in excessive P fertilizer applications. P fertilization experiments including relevant site and soil parameters were evaluated in order to analyze the yield response. The database comprises about 2000 datasets from 30 field experiments from Germany and Austria. Statistical evaluations using a classification and regression tree approach, and multiple linear regression analysis indicate that besides plant-available soil P content, soil texture and soil organic matter content have a large influence on the effectiveness of P fertilization. This study methodology can be a basis for modification and specification of existing P fertilization recommendations and thus contribute to mitigate environmental impacts of P fertilization.