Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Very high correlations between fresh weight and lipid-adjusted PCB-153 serum concentrations: irrespective of fasting status, age, body mass index, gender, or exposure distributions

Background and aim

Persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) have in epidemiological studies been associated with health hazards. The exposure window might be crucial and it is, accordingly, important to analyze exposure concentrations in samples collected at the window of interest. This makes the use of stored blood samples extremely interesting. However, small blood volumes from stored samples in biobanks means that the researchers in epidemiological studies most often have to select a limited number of biomarkers representing the POP exposure and abstain from analyses of lipid concentrations. This raises the question of the necessity of lipid adjustment. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the correlation between fresh weight and lipid adjusted concentrations.

Methods

We included data from studies were we have used the PCB congener 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153) as a biomarker for POP exposure and where fresh weight as well as lipid adjusted PCB-153 concentrations are known (n = 1628). The variety of the cohort members in the different studies gave us the possibility to better understand how well these measures correlate.

Results

When all individuals were included in the analyses a correlation coefficient of 0.95 between fresh weight and lipid adjusted serum concentrations was obtained. Restricting the analyses to specific subgroups (based on gender, fasting status, age and BMI) gave correlation coefficients between 0.85 and 0.97.

Conclusions

This study does strongly support the use of samples from biobanks in epidemiological studies for analyzing PCBs, at least regarding PCB-153, even though it is not possible to lipid adjust the results.     

How researchers frame scientific contributions to sustainable development: a typology based on grounded theory

Given that research on sustainable development usually relates to real-world challenges, it requires researchers to align scientific knowledge production with concrete societal problem situations. To empirically explore how researchers frame scientific contributions when designing and planning projects, we conducted a qualitative study on land use–related projects based on the methodology of grounded theory. We identified major influence factors and various types of research design. Among the factors that influence project framing, scientific considerations were found to be more important than expected. Core characteristics of project framings concerned (a) type of scientific contributions envisaged; (b) real-world sustainability challenges addressed, and (c) researchers’ conceptions of how knowledge would reach its addressees. Three different types of project framing were found, suggesting that framing strongly depends on (the researchers’ perception of) how well a real-world problem situation is understood scientifically and how strongly are societal actors aware of the problem and act upon it. The spectrum of how researchers planned that knowledge would reach its addressees comprised communicating results to interactive conceptions allowing for mutual learning throughout the research process. The typology reveals a variety of useful and promising project framings for sustainable development research. The typology may serve to reconcile conceptual ideals and expectations with researchers’ realities.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

A new device for formaldehyde and total aldehydes real-time monitoring

A new sensitive technique for the quantification of formaldehyde (HCHO) and total aldehydes has been developed in order to monitor these compounds, which are known to be involved in air quality issues and to have health impacts. Our approach is based on a colorimetric method where aldehydes are initially stripped from the air into a scrubbing solution by means of a turning coil sampler tube and then derivatised with 3-methylbenzothiazolinone-2-hydrazone in acid media (pH?=??0.5). Hence, colourless aldehydes are transformed into blue dyes that are detected by UV–visible spectroscopy at 630 nm. Liquid core waveguide LCW Teflon® AF-2400 tube was used as innovative optical cells providing a HCHO detection limit of 4 pptv for 100 cm optical path with a time resolution of 15 min. This instrument showed good correlation with commonly used techniques for aldehydes analysis such as DNPH derivatisation chromatographic techniques with off-line and on-line samplers, and DOAS techniques (with deviation below 6 %) for both indoor and outdoor conditions. This instrument is associated with simplicity and low cost, which is a prerequisite for indoor monitoring.     

Evaluation of Multi-level Social Learning for Sustainable Landscapes: Perspective of a Development Initiative in Bergslagen, Sweden

To implement policies about sustainable landscapes and rural development necessitates social learning about states and trends of sustainability indicators, norms that define sustainability, and adaptive multi-level governance. We evaluate the extent to which social learning at multiple governance levels for sustainable landscapes occur in 18 local development initiatives in the network of Sustainable Bergslagen in Sweden. We mapped activities over time, and interviewed key actors in the network about social learning. While activities resulted in exchange of experiences and some local solutions, a major challenge was to secure systematic social learning and make new knowledge explicit at multiple levels. None of the development initiatives used a systematic approach to secure social learning, and sustainability assessments were not made systematically. We discuss how social learning can be improved, and how a learning network of development initiatives could be realized.     

Radionuclide Transport and Uptake in Coastal Aquatic Ecosystems: A Comparison of a 3D Dynamic Model and a Compartment Model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.