Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.     

Development and verification of a toxicokinetic model of polychlorinated biphenyl elimination in persons working in a contaminated building

BACKGROUND: Polychlorinated biphenyls are toxic and slowly degrading substances that have been in widespread industrial use in the 1960s and 1970s. Despite a worldwide reduction, environmental exposure remains an issue; the assessment of an individual's level of exposure at a given time in retrospect requires valid toxicokinetic modeling of the different PCB congeners. OBJECTIVES: To develop and verify a toxicokinetic model of the in vivo-degradation of PCB 28 and 52 in adult humans. METHODS: The plasma concentrations of PCB congeners were measured in 583 persons working in a contaminated building for an average of 14.7+/-9.6 years. The values were adapted to a simple pharmacokinetic model (yt = y0 x (1 - e(-kt))); the steady state concentration y0 was estimated based on the median values of persons working exposed more than 10 years. RESULTS: The steady state concentration of PCB 28 was 0.10 microg/l, that of PCB 52 0.02 microg/l. The half-life of the congeners was estimated based on a logarithmic regression analysis according to the model mentioned above; it was 2.18 (95% CI: 1.91-2.54) years for PCB 28 and 3.95 (95% CI: 3.55-4.45) years for PCB 52, respectively. Stepwise elimination of persons with very long employment duration did not reduce the estimated half-life. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated half-life is higher than previously published data especially for PCB 52. Possible reasons and implications of this finding are discussed.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Characterisation of PM10 emissions from woodstove combustion of common woods grown in Portugal

A series of source tests was performed to evaluate the chemical composition of particle emissions from the woodstove combustion of four prevalent Portuguese species of woods: Pinus pinaster (maritime pine), Eucalyptus globulus (eucalyptus), Quercus suber (cork oak) and Acacia longifolia (golden wattle). Analyses included water-soluble ions, metals, radionuclides, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), humic-like substances (HULIS), cellulose and approximately l80 organic compounds. Particle (PM₁₀) emission factors from eucalyptus and oak were higher than those from pine and acacia. The carbonaceous matter represented 44–63% of the particulate mass emitted during the combustion process, regardless of species burned. The major organic components of smoke particles, for all the wood species studied, with the exception of the golden wattle (0.07–1.9% w/w), were anhydrosugars (0.2–17% w/w). Conflicting with what was expected, only small amounts of cellulose were found in wood smoke. As for HULIS, average particle mass concentrations ranged from 1.5% to 3.0%. The golden wattle wood smoke presented much higher concentrations of ions and metal species than the emissions from the other wood types. The results of the analysis of radionuclides revealed that the ²²⁶Ra was the naturally occurring radionuclide more enriched in PM₁₀. The chromatographically resolved organics included n-alkanes, n-alkenes, PAH, oxygenated PAH, n-alkanals, ketones, n-alkanols, terpenoids, triterpenoids, phenolic compounds, phytosterols, alcohols, n-alkanoic acids, n-di-acids, unsaturated acids and alkyl ester acids.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Mechanisms of purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) encroachment in dry heathland ecosystems with chronic nitrogen inputs

We analysed growth strategies (biomass allocation, nutrient sequestration and allocation) of heather (Calluna vulgaris) and purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) seedlings in monocultures and mixtures in relation to N, P, and N + P fertilisation in a greenhouse experiment in order to simulate a heath’s pioneer phase under high airborne nitrogen (N) loads. N fertilisation increased the total biomass of both species in monocultures. In mixtures, M. caerulea sequestered about 65% of the N applied, while C. vulgaris suffered from N shortage (halving of the total biomass). Thus, in mixtures only M. caerulea will benefit from airborne N loads, and competition will become increasingly asymmetric with increasing N availability. Our results demonstrate that the heath’s pioneer phase is the crucial tipping point at which the competitive vigour of M. caerulea (high belowground allocation, efficient use of belowground resources, shortened reproductive cycles) induces a shift to dominance of grasses under increased N availability.     

Quantification of nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems by use of a process oriented biogeochemical model

Simulations with the process oriented Forest-DNDC model showed reasonable to good agreement with observations of soil water contents of different soil layers, annual amounts of seepage water and approximated rates of nitrate leaching at 79 sites across Germany. Following site evaluation, Forest-DNDC was coupled to a GIS to assess nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems for the year 2000. At national scale leaching rates varied in a range of 0–>80 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean 5.5 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). A comparison of regional simulations with the results of a nitrate inventory study for Bavaria showed that measured and simulated percentages for different nitrate leaching classes (0–5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:66% vs. 74%, 5–15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:20% vs. 20%, >15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:14% vs. 6%) were in good agreement. Mean nitrate concentrations in seepage water ranged between 0 and 23 mg NO₃–N l⁻¹.     

Wood burning impact on PM10 in three Austrian regions

Anhydrosugars (levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan) were investigated during one year in three Austrian regions at three types of sites (city-heavy traffic-impacted, city-residential and background) in order to assess the magnitude of the contribution of wood smoke to the particulate matter load and its organic fraction. The annually averaged concentrations of levoglucosan ranged from 0.12 to 0.48 μg m^?3. The levoglucosan concentration exhibited a strong annual cycle with higher concentrations in the cold season. The minor anhydrosugars had a similar annual trend, but their concentrations were lower by a factor of about 5 and about 25 in the cold season for mannosan and galactosan, respectively. Levoglucosan concentrations were higher at the inner-urban as compared to rural sites. The contribution of wood smoke to organic carbon and PM₁₀ levels was calculated using a constant ratio of levoglucosan and OC, respectively PM₁₀ as derived for fire wood typical for Alpine European regions [Schmidl, C., Marr, I.L., Caseiro, A.e, Kotianová, P., Berner, A., Bauer, H., Kasper-Giebl, A., Puxbaum, H., 2008a. Chemical characterisation of fine particle emissions from wood stove combustion of common woods growing in mid-European Alpine regions. Atmospheric Environment 42, 126–141]. The estimated contribution of wood smoke-OC to the OC of PM₁₀ ranged from one third to more than half in the cold season with higher contributions up to 70% in winter (December, January and February) in the smaller cities and the rural background. This indicates, that wood smoke is the predominant source of organic material at rural and small urban sites in central Europe. Consistently, wood smoke was an important contributor to PM₁₀ during the cold season, with contributions of around 10% in the Vienna larger region and around 20% at rural sites in the densely forested regions of Salzburg and Styria during the winter months. In those regions residential sites exhibited highest relative wood smoke contents in PM₁₀ during autumn (September till November), indicating the use of wood stoves for auxiliary heating in the transition of warm to cold season. Using the relationships between the different anhydrosugars the combustion of softwood was found to be dominant for the wood smoke occurrence in ambient air at the investigated sites. Potassium, a commonly used tracer for biomass burning, correlated well to levoglucosan, with a mass ratio of around 0.80 in the cold season.     

Comparing canopy leaf temperature of three Central European tree species based on simultaneous confidence bands for penalized splines

Temperature is an important physical factor that is known to strongly affect biodiversity as well as ecosystems and their functioning. However, research in this area is still relatively limited; this may also be attributed to the multitude of influencing factors and the complexity of the statistics involved. This study analyzes the differences between the surface temperature of three Central European broadleaf tree species. A better understanding of these differences may help to elucidate the role of microclimate in biodiversity. We consider a time series of high-resolution thermal images taken from a meteorological observation tower and calculate mean canopy leaf temperatures for beech, ash and maple (Fagus silvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Acer pseudoplatanus). In a first step, comparable image areas are extracted from the thermal image sections of the crown of each tree species avoiding shadow areas, branches, etc. We used an automatic segmentation technique, the Otsu thresholding. Extracted canopy leaf temperature values were then processed and the resulting temperature profiles estimated by O’Sullivan penalized splines. For comparing the differences in canopy leaf temperature over time, we propose the construction of simultaneous confidence bands. The analyses show that there are significant—though small—differences in canopy surface temperature between the three tree species.     

Green Toxicology: a strategy for sustainable chemical and material development

Green Toxicology refers to the application of predictive toxicology in the sustainable development and production of new less harmful materials and chemicals, subsequently reducing waste and exposure. Built upon the foundation of “Green Chemistry” and “Green Engineering”, “Green Toxicology” aims to shape future manufacturing processes and safe synthesis of chemicals in terms of environmental and human health impacts. Being an integral part of Green Chemistry, the principles of Green Toxicology amplify the role of health-related aspects for the benefit of consumers and the environment, in addition to being economical for manufacturing companies. Due to the costly development and preparation of new materials and chemicals for market entry, it is no longer practical to ignore the safety and environmental status of new products during product development stages. However, this is only possible if toxicologists and chemists work together early on in the development of materials and chemicals to utilize safe design strategies and innovative in vitro and in silico tools. This paper discusses some of the most relevant aspects, advances and limitations of the emergence of Green Toxicology from the perspective of different industry and research groups. The integration of new testing methods and strategies in product development, testing and regulation stages are presented with examples of the application of in silico, omics and in vitro methods. Other tools for Green Toxicology, including the reduction of animal testing, alternative test methods, and read-across approaches are also discussed.