The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

The importance of monitoring and evaluation in adaptive maritime spatial planning

Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional indicators need to be developed and monitored.     

Modelling short-term effects of ozone on morbidity: an application to the city of Milano,Italy, 1995–2003

In this paper, we explore a range of concerns that arise in measuring short-term effects of ozone on health. In particular, we tackle the problem of measuring exposure using alternative daily measures of ozone derived from hourly concentrations. We adopt the exposure paradigm of Chiogna and Bellini (Environmetrics 13:55–69, 2002) extending it to ozone concentrations, and we compare its performances with respect to traditional exposure measures by exploiting model selection. To investigate the stability of model selection, we then apply the idea of bootstrapping the modelling process.     

Effects of salinity on multiplication and transmission of an intertidal trematode parasite

Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates. We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages (cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities (25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions, the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance.     

Do corals select zooxanthellae by alternative discharge?

Loss of zooxanthellae (dinoflagellate Symbiodinium) from corals will sometimes lead to mass mortality of corals. To detect and quantify Symbiodinium released from corals, we developed a zooxanthellae “trap” and a quantitative PCR (qPCR) system with Symbiodinium clades A–F-specific primer sets. The trap was attached to a branch or the surface of several wild stony corals, and the water samples within the traps, including released Symbiodinium, were subjected to qPCR. All tested corals released clade C Symbiodinium at estimates of ~5,900 cells h⁻¹ cm⁻² of coral surface. Although all tested Pocillopora eydouxi harboured both clades C and D, some of these colonies released only clade C or released a lesser amount of clade D than that in the tissues. Our Symbiodinium quantification system revealed that wild hermatypic corals constantly release Symbiodinium to the environment. Our result suggests that some corals may discharge certain clades of Symbiodinium alternatively.     

Toxicity and genotoxic evaluations in African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell 1822) exposed to Act Force Gold®, Butaforce®, and Atraforce®

Act Force Gold^®, Butaforce^®, and Atraforce^® are among the most commonly used pesticides in Nigeria. The lethal concentrations and the respective toxic units for the three pesticides were determined. The genotoxic effects of the three pesticides were investigated in the red blood cells of Clarias gariepinus using micronucleus (MN) assay. The 96 h LC₅₀ was 4.75, 4.84, and 54.74 mg L⁻¹ for Act Force Gold^®, Butaforce^®, and Atraforce^®, respectively. The toxic units in ascending order of toxicity were 1.83, 20.66, and 21.05 for Act Force Gold^®, Butaforce^®, and Atraforce^® respectively. The estimated safe levels based on NAS/NAE varied from 4.75 × 10⁻¹–4.75 × 10⁻⁵ in Act Force Gold^® through 4.64 × 10⁻¹–4.85 × 10⁻⁵ in Butaforce^® to 5.74–5.74 × 10⁻⁵ in Atraforce^®. Fish specimens were exposed to the pesticides and sampling was done at regular intervals at days 1, 7, 14, and 21 and after another 7-day recovery period. The results obtained indicated concentration- and duration-dependent increase in % MN formation with maximum values of 3.40 ± 0.25 for Act Force Gold^® on day 14 and 3.05 ± 0.36 and 2.35 ± 0.14 for Butaforce^® and Atraforce^® respectively on day 7 of exposure. The 7-day recovery period could not reverse the trend as the % MN values obtained were significantly different from the control. The results further support the use of MN assay in assessing the toxicity of aquatic pollutants and can be used in the monitoring of aquatic ecosystems.

     

The permeability of dredged material-bentonite backfills

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Extensive attention has been paid to the treatment and disposal of dredged material, and there is a need to clarify the feasibility of recycling...