Fire-climate history and landscape patterns of high burn severity areas on the California southern and central coast

There is mounting evidence that fire size and severity have been growing on the central and southern California coastal landscape over the past several decades. Landsat satellite data was analyzed for the 20 largest fires on the Central California coast since 1984 to determine the relationships between climate/weather conditions at the time of ignition and the size of high burn severity (HBS) areas. The study also examined the relationship between area burned and landscape patterns of HBS coverage, including patch size, edge complexity, perimeter-to-area ratio, and aggregation metrics. Results showed that climate conditions at the time of ignitions have been significant controllers of the total area of HBS and the complexity of HBS patches on the fire landscape. As maximum air temperatures for the month of ignition approached 40^o C, the percentage of HBS to total area burned frequently exceeded 20%. The percentage of HBS to total area burned also exceed 20% when the precipitation total recorded during the previous 12 months was less than 25% of the annual average precipitation. Landscape analysis results showed that, as the total area burned in fires on the Central California coast grows, the edge lengths and areas of HBS patches also grows at a rapid rate. At the same time, the perimeter-to-area ratio of HBS patches decreases gradually and the HBS patches become more aggregated as total burned area grows.     

Optimum design of the entrance of a fishpond laterally to the main stream of an open channel

In this study, the optimum design of the entrance of a fishpond laterally to the main flow of an open channel was investigated numerically and experimentally. The flow characteristic measurements were realized with the PIV (particle image velocimetry) method. The mathematical simulations were based on the development of a two dimensional -mean in depthhydrodynamic model and a quasi three dimensional sediment transport model which includes processes of advection, diffusion, and settling of conservative suspended matter. The study was completed with the comparison of the final results of the mathematical models with the findings of the physical model revealing the hydrodynamic interaction and coupling between the main flow of the channel and the lateral reservoir—fishpond and leading to the optimum technical design of the system.     

Channel Evolution Models as Predictors of Sediment Yield

This paper recounts our predictions of channel evolution of the Black Vermillion River (BVR) and sediment yields associated with the evolutionary sequence. Channel design parameters allowed for the prediction of stable channel form and coincident sediment yields. Measured erosion rates and basin‐specific bank erosion curves aided in prediction of the stream channel succession time frame. This understanding is critical in determining how and when to mitigate a myriad of instability consequences. The BVR drains approximately 1,062 km² in the glaciated region of Northeast Kansas. Once tallgrass prairie, the basin has been modified extensively for agricultural production. As such, channelization has shortened the river by nearly 26 km from pre‐European dimensions; shortening combined with the construction of numerous flow‐through structures have produced dramatic impacts on discharge and sediment dynamics. Nine stream reaches were established within three main tributaries of the BVR in 2007. Reaches averaged 490 m in length, were surveyed, and assessed for channel stability, while resurveys were conducted annually through 2010 to monitor change. This work illustrates the association of current stream state, in‐channel sediment contributions, and prediction of future erosion rates based on stream evolution informed by multiple models. Our findings suggest greater and more rapid sedimentation of a federal reservoir than has been predicted using standard sediment prediction methods.     

Effects of inorganic lead on Western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis)

Although anthropogenic pollutants are thought to threaten reptilian species, there are few toxicity studies on reptiles. We evaluated the toxicity of Pb as lead acetate to the Western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis). The acute lethal dose and sub-acute (14-day) toxicity studies were used to narrow exposure concentrations for a sub-chronic (60-day) study. In the sub-chronic study, adult and juvenile male lizards were dosed via gavage with 0, 1, 10 and 20 mg Pb/kg-bw/day. Mortality was limited and occurred only at the highest dose (20 mg Pb/kg-bw/d). There were statistically significant sub-lethal effects of 10 and 20 mg Pb/kg-bw/d on body weight, cricket consumption, organ weight, hematological parameters and post-dose behaviors. Of these, Pb-induced changes in body weight are most useful for ecological risk assessment because it is linked to fitness in wild lizard populations. The Western fence lizard is a useful model for reptilian toxicity studies.     

Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM2.5 case study

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3–4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

Estimating Dead Wood During National Forest Inventories: A Review of Inventory Methodologies and Suggestions for Harmonization

Efforts to assess forest ecosystem carbon stocks, biodiversity, and fire hazards have spurred the need for comprehensive assessments of forest ecosystem dead wood (DW) components around the world. Currently, information regarding the prevalence, status, and methods of DW inventories occurring in the world’s forested landscapes is scattered. The goal of this study is to describe the status, DW components measured, sample methods employed, and DW component thresholds used by national forest inventories that currently inventory DW around the world. Study results indicate that most countries do not inventory forest DW. Globally, we estimate that about 13% of countries inventory DW using a diversity of sample methods and DW component definitions. A common feature among DW inventories was that most countries had only just begun DW inventories and employ very low sample intensities. There are major hurdles to harmonizing national forest inventories of DW: differences in population definitions, lack of clarity on sample protocols/estimation procedures, and sparse availability of inventory data/reports. Increasing database/estimation flexibility, developing common dimensional thresholds of DW components, publishing inventory procedures/protocols, releasing inventory data/reports to international peer review, and increasing communication (e.g., workshops) among countries inventorying DW are suggestions forwarded by this study to increase DW inventory harmonization.     

Organochlorine pesticides in elementary school yards along the Texas-Mexico border

A reconnaissance study was undertaken to determine potential contaminant exposures to children through soil from elementary school playgrounds. Soil samples were collected from areas along the Texas-Mexico border, inland areas (soils from elementary school yards in cities/towns within the state of Texas), and three National Parks (one on the border, one in Tennessee, and one in Washington). The present study focused on organochlorine (OC) pesticides as the potential contaminants of concern because of their historical (and possibly current) use, and their importance as persistent organic pollutants (POPs). DDE and heptachlor were the most frequently detected OCs (69 and 63%, respectively), although heptachlor concentrations in soil never exceeded 5 ppb. Relatively higher concentrations of DDE were observed in agricultural areas along the border (50-60 ppb in soils from McAllen, Palmview, and San Benito) than in other soils. However, a school yard in Lubbock, TX had the highest OC concentration observed (70 ppb dieldrin). These results may be due to historical agriculture activity prior to the banning of OC pesticides such as DDT in the early 1970s, as well as the more recent use of DDT in Central and South America for malaria control.     

Effects of near‐future ocean acidification,fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer‐reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators.