Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Middle-Eocene artiodactyls from Shanghuang (Jiangsu Province,Coastal China) and the diversity of basal dichobunoids in Asia

A new assemblage of basal dichobunoid artiodactyls from the middle-Eocene Shanghuang fissure fillings includes the diacodexeid Jiangsudon shanghuangensis gen. and sp. nov., a new species of the lantianine dichobunoid Elaschitotherium, Elaschitotherium crepaturus sp. nov., and an indeterminate suoid which is presently the earliest record of this clade. Diacodexeids are also represented by two forms provisionally referred to cf. Diacodexis sp. and to an indeterminate Diacodexeidae, respectively. The occurrence of diacodexeids in Shanghuang contrasts with the early and earliest middle-Eocene chronological range of the family in Europe and North America and suggests that the stratigraphic range of the family in Asia extends up to the middle Eocene. This may reflect particular habitats in coastal China that may have been relatively stable during the early and middle Eocene, thus preserving forest-dwelling artiodactyls that became extinct in the other Holarctic regions. Compared to other supposedly coeval North American, European, and Asian faunas, the Shanghuang mammalian assemblage is most similar to early Uintan faunas of North America but is also remarkable in recording forms close to taxa that are characteristic of the Wasatchian and Bridgerian North American Land Mammal Ages. The Irdinmanhan age of the Shanghuang fauna is supported by the mammalian assemblage recovered from the fissure D, but an Arshantan age cannot be completely ruled out at this point. Although the Shanghuang assemblage is biased towards preservation of small components of the mammalian fauna, the Shanghuang fauna provide an important and unique window into the Eocene diversity and early evolution of cetartiodactyls in eastern Asia.     

Assessing conservation opportunity on private land: socio-economic, behavioral, and spatial dimensions

This study presents a method for assessing conservation opportunity on private land based on landholders' socio-economic, behavioral, and farm characteristics. These characteristics include age, gender, education, level of off-farm income, farm size, proportion of remnant native vegetation on-farm, and ecological value of native vegetation on-farm. A sample of landholders who own greater than 2 ha of land in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin region were sent a mail-based survey about their values and preferences for environmental management (N = 659, 52% response). Cross-tabulations and ANOVA statistical analysis techniques were used to compare the socio-economic attributes across three landholder classes: disengaged, moderately engaged, and highly engaged in native vegetation planting. Results indicate that highly engaged landholders were more likely to be female, formally educated, hobby farmers who managed small parcels of land and have high off-farm incomes, whereas disengaged landholders held significantly stronger farming connections (more farming experience, family have lived on the farm for more generations). Spatial analysis revealed area-specific differences in conservation opportunity and conservation priority. In some areas, properties of high ecological value were managed by highly engaged landholders, but nearby properties of high value were managed by moderately engaged or disengaged landholders. Environmental managers therefore cannot assume areas of high conservation priority will be areas of high conservation opportunity. At the regional scale, the potential for revegetation seems most promising within the moderately engaged landholder group considering the vast amount of land managed by this group in areas of high ecological value, particularly within the less represented Mallee and Coorong and Rangelands sub-regions. We suggest that incentive schemes which purchase conservation need to be targeted at disengaged landholders; mentoring schemes led by commercial farmers highly engaged in native vegetation planting should be directed at moderately engaged landholders, and; awards programs which acknowledge conservation successes should be targeted at highly engaged landholders.     

Estimation of late twentieth century land-cover change in California

We present the first comprehensive multi-temporal analysis of land-cover change for California across its major ecological regions and primary land-cover types. Recently completed satellite-based estimates of land-cover and land-use change information for large portions of the United States allow for consistent measurement and comparison across heterogeneous landscapes. Landsat data were employed within a pure-panel stratified one-stage cluster sample to estimate and characterize land-cover change for 1973?C2000. Results indicate anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as forest cutting and fire, were the dominant changes, followed by large fluctuations between agriculture and rangelands. Contrary to common perception, agriculture remained relatively stable over the 27-year period with an estimated loss of 1.0% of agricultural land. The largest net declines occurred in the grasslands/shrubs class at 5,131 km² and forest class at 4,722 km². Developed lands increased by 37.6%, composing an estimated 4.2% of the state??s land cover by 2000.     

A survey on the temporal and spatial distribution of perchlorate in the Potomac River

Samples of river water and treated drinking water were obtained from eight sites along the Potomac River between western Maryland and Washington DC. Samples were collected each month from October 2007 to September 2008 and analyzed for perchlorate by ion chromatography/mass spectrometry. Data on anions were also collected for seven of the twelve months. Data were analyzed to identify spatial and temporal patterns for the occurrence of perchlorate in the Potomac. Over the year of sampling, the largest monthly increase occurred from June to July, with levels then decreasing from July to September. Samples from the period between December and May had lower perchlorate concentrations, relative to the remainder of the study year. Spatially, higher levels of perchlorate were found at sites located in west-central Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and central northern Virginia, with levels decreasing slightly as the Potomac approaches Washington DC. Within the sampling boundaries, river (untreated) water perchlorate concentrations ranged from 0.03 μg L(-1) to 7.63 μg L(-1), averaged 0.67 ± 0.97 μg L(-1) over the year-long period and had a median value of 0.37 μg L(-1). There was no evidence that any of the existing drinking water treatment technologies at the sampling sites were effective in removing perchlorate. There were no correlations found between the presence of perchlorate and any of the anions or water quality parameters examined in the source water with the exception of a weak positive correlation with water temperature. Results from the summer (June-August) and fall (September-November) months sampled in this study were generally higher than from the winter and spring months (December-May). All but one of the locations had annual average perchlorate levels below 1 μg L(-1); however, 7 of the 8 sites sampled had river water perchlorate detections over 1 μg L(-1) and 5 of the 8 sites had treated water detections over this level.     

Cx43 regulates mechanotransduction mechanisms in human preterm amniotic membrane defects

Objective

The effects of mechanical stimulation in preterm amniotic membrane (AM) defects were explored.

Methods

Preterm AM was collected from women undergoing planned preterm caesarean section (CS) due to fetal growth restriction or emergency CS after spontaneous preterm prelabour rupture of the membranes (sPPROM). AM explants near the cervix or placenta were subjected to trauma and/or mechanical stimulation with the Cx43 antisense. Markers for nuclear morphology (DAPI), myofibroblasts (αSMA), migration (Cx43), inflammation (PGE₂) and repair (collagen, elastin and transforming growth factor β [TGFβ₁]) were examined by confocal microscopy, second harmonic generation, qPCR and biochemical assays.

Results

In preterm AM defects, myofibroblast nuclei were highly deformed and contractile and expressed αSMA and Cx43. Mechanical stimulation increased collagen fibre polarisation and the effects on matrix markers were dependent on tissue region, disease state, gestational age and the number of fetuses. PGE₂ levels were broadly similar but reduced after co-treatment with Cx43 antisense in late sPPROM AM defects. TGFβ₁ and Cx43 gene expression were significantly increased after trauma and mechanical stimulation but this response dependent on gestational age.

Conclusion

Mechanical stimulation affects Cx43 signalling and cell/collagen mechanics in preterm AM defects. Establishing how Cx43 regulates mechanosignalling could be an approach to repair tissue integrity after trauma.     

Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.     

Review of Urban Stormwater Quality Models: Deterministic,Stochastic, and Hybrid Approaches1

Abstract: The growing impact of urban stormwater on surface‐water quality has illuminated the need for more accurate modeling of stormwater pollution. Water quality based regulation and the movement towards integrated urban water management place a similar demand for improved stormwater quality model predictions. The physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect stormwater quality need to be better understood and simulated, while acknowledging the costs and benefits that such complex modeling entails. This paper reviews three approaches to stormwater quality modeling: deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid. Six deterministic, three stochastic, and three hybrid models are reviewed in detail. Hybrid approaches show strong potential for reducing stormwater quality model prediction error and uncertainty. Improved stormwater quality models will have wide ranging benefits for combined sewer overflow management, total maximum daily load development, best management practice design, land use change impact assessment, water quality trading, and integrated modeling.     

Long-run economic and social determinants of the ecological footprint of latin america: a panel causality approach

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - As a region rich in natural resources and biodiversity, Latin America is particularly vulnerable to environmental crises. The ecological footprint...     

Ontogenetic changes in small-scale movement by recruits of an exploited mussel: implications for the fate of larvae settling on algae

Many South African populations of the brown mussel Perna perna have been depleted through over-exploitation by subsistence harvesters. This is problematic because recovery after disturbance is very slow, partly because recruits are largely associated with adult mussels. However, unlike large recruits of 3.5–10 mm that exhibit spatial structure related to that of adults, a very high proportion of settlers and small recruits (0–3.5 mm) occur on foliose algae. We tested the hypothesis that recruits on algae move to adult mussel beds after a period of growth, with the null hypothesis that they die at a certain size. We conducted an indirect field study comparing the ratios of large to small recruits in 100% cover mussel patches at locations with high and low algal cover. A second laboratory experiment analysed whether the size of recruits on algae affects their active movement behaviour in response to nearby mussel patches. Large/small recruit ratios were slightly, but not significantly greater in high than low algal cover locations. Both small (2–2.5 mm) and medium (4.5–5.5 mm) recruits remained on algae and moved very short distances throughout the laboratory experiment, while larger recruits (9–10 mm) moved significantly further distances and more often into mussel patches. The results suggest that very large recruits are able to migrate actively to nearby mussel patches, indicating ontogenetic shifts in this behaviour. However, the absence of a significant difference in ratios between field locations with high and low algal cover suggests many large recruits are accidentally dislodged from the algae and presumably die. Thus settlement of P. perna onto algae is likely to be wasted, with consequences for sustainable management of the mussel resource.