Analysis and application of forest fuels data

Recent advances in fire modeling permit quantitative estimations of fire behavior from quantitative inputs that describe the fuel array and conditions, such as weather and site data, under which it will burn. This paper describes the collection, analysis, and stratification of flammable forest fuels data for coniferous forest ecosystems in Montana and then illustrates the resource management application of these data in three areas: the development of the fire behavior model, a determination of the model's sensitivity to input errors as reflected by fire behavior prediction errors, and the development of a fire hazard simulator (TAROT). A new integrated stand simulator, GANDALF, is highlighted.Conclusions center on the need to integrate fire management into the land management planning decision-making process.This work was supported by a USDI National Park Service contract to Gradient Modeling, Inc., a nonprofit research foundation devoted to ecologic research and resource management applications, and by cooperative aid agreements between Gradient Modeling, Inc. and the USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Northern Forest Fire Laboratory (Fire in Multiple Use Management, R, D, and A Program).     

ESTIMATING BASEFLOW VOLUME AND ITS UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: By using the exponential baseflow recession equation it is possible to estimate from a single discharge measurement the total volume of stream discharge during a baseflow period. If the discharge measurement is properly centered in the baseflow period the resulting estimate will be fairly precise, even if the baseflow recession coefficient is not known. Furthermore, based on an assumed probability distribution of the baseflow coefficient it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the baseflow volume estimate. Estimates of baseflow volume and their uncertainty are potentially useful for estimating water budgets of lakes.     

Application of the wilderness travel simulation model to the Appalachian Trail in Vermont

The wilderness travel simulation model estimates complex recreation use patterns in park and wilderness environments. The model was applied to a section of the Appalachian Trail in Vermont, a linear, long-distance, multiple-access trail system characteristic of the eastern United States. Many portions of the trail, including the study area, are now experiencing high use. The model estimated the average number of trail encounters per party day to be 3.3 and the average number of camp encounters per party night to be 2.3. Other measures of recreation use were also estimated that should prove useful to trail management and administration. Three trail management scenarios were tested, providing several preliminary insights to managers: the desirability of use redistributions as opposed to across-the-board reductions and needed emphasis on spatial use patterns and campsite encounters. Only minor modifications to the program were needed in applying the model to the trail environment and the model functioned accurately according to the validity tests performed.     

Harem choice and breeding experience of female southern elephant seals influence offspring survival

Female mammals can increase their lifetime fitness through modification of investment potential and by providing better rearing environments with improved breeding experience. We examined the relationships between reproductive fitness and the behavioural decisions that female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) made during the breeding season. We examined whether mother age and breeding experience influenced reproductive success (measured as 1st-year survival probability), and whether there was a change in the choice of harem size with increasing age. Pups produced by young mothers had lower 1st-year survival probability than pups produced by older mothers. A significant increase in mean female mass with age required an analysis of both these effects on offspring survival. There was a significant positive effect of both female age and mass, and the interaction between the two, on 1st-year pup survival. The proportion of young mothers (<5 years old) decreased and the proportion of older mothers (>6 years old) increased with increasing harem size (harems surveyed from 1997 to 2001). Females chose larger harems in which to breed as they aged. Females demonstrated fidelity to breeding areas among successive breeding seasons, with older females displaying greater breeding-site fidelity than younger females. The mean number of previous breeding attempts per female within a harem (breeding experience) increased significantly with increasing harem size. Breeding females returned to breed later in the breeding season as they aged—we hypothesize that young, subordinate females gain a priority advantage by returning earlier. These results lend support to the hypothesis that there are fitness advantages, in terms of offspring survival, that are conferred to females that breed in successively larger harems with age. Potential mechanisms that select for females to improve their breeding conditions include improved mate selection and the avoidance of conspecific harassment in harems.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Relationships between the movements,growth, age structures,and reproductive biology of the teleosts Sillago burrus and S. vittata in temperate marine waters

Sillago burrus and S. vittata both use sheltered, nearshore shallow waters ( 1.5 m) as nursery areas. However, the juveniles of the former species remain there for only a few months, before migrating into deeper waters (5 to 15 m) as they increase in size, whereas some juvenile S. vittata do not undergo a similar migration until considerably later. S. burrus rarely exceeded 2 yr of age and was never found beyond 4 yr of age. Although only a small number of S. vittata exceeded 2 yr of age, a few individuals of this species were caught between 4 and 7 yr old. The maximum and asymptotic lengths of S. burrus (251 and 180 mm, respectively) were far lower than those of S. vittata (325 and 320 mm, respectively), whereas the growth coefficients (K) were much higher for the former species, i.e. 2.4 vs 0.4. Virtually all S. burrus, and also those S. vittata that moved into deeper waters early in life, spawned at the end of their first year of life. Since relatively few S. burrus reached 2 yr of age, the attainment of almost full size by the end of their first year of life enables a relatively large number of eggs to be produced by fish at the end of their first year-for many, their only spawning period. Those individuals of S. vittata that remained in their shallow nursery areas until the end of their first year of life, did not reach maturity until the end of their second year of life. The proportions of mature gonads and the numbers of yolk-vesicle and yolk-granule oocytes and post-ovulatory follicles in ovaries were far higher in both S. burrus and S. vittata during December to February than in any other month, demonstrating that these two species spawn largely in these summer months. During this period, the ovaries of individual S. burrus and S. vittata often contained post-ovulatory follicles, as well as yolkvesicle and yolk-granule oocytes that ranged widely in size, strongly suggesting that both species are multiple spawners. During the spawning period of S. burrus, the ovaries possessed large numbers of hydrated oocytes and no post-ovulatory follicles or the reverse situation, and the oocytes tended to form several relatively discrete size groups. This indicates that S. burrus produces eggs in batches and that the spawning of the members of this species is synchronised. The presence of large numbers of yolk-granule oocytes with migrating nuclei in the ovaries of many S. vittata at certain times suggests that this species is also a batch- and synchronised spawner. Comparisons between the results of the present study and past work emphasise that the relationships between the timing of offshore movements and the sizes and ages at first maturity vary considerably amongst whiting species.     

The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea: environmental and socioeconomic status, future prognosis and ameliorative policy options

The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea, with neighboring Indonesian Seas and South China Sea, lies at the center of the world's tropical marine biodiversity. Encircled by 3 populous, developing nations, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, the Sea and its adjacent coastal and terrestrial ecosystems, supports ca. 33 million people, most with subsistence livelihoods heavily reliant on its renewable natural resources. These resources are being impacted severely by rapid population growth (> 2% yr-1, with expected doubling by 2035) and widespread poverty, coupled with increasing international market demand and rapid technological changes, compounded by inefficiencies in governance and a lack of awareness and/or acceptance of some laws among local populations, particularly in parts of the Philippines and Indonesia. These key root causes all contribute to illegal practices and corruption, and are resulting in severe resource depletion and degradation of water catchments, river, lacustrine, estuarine, coastal, and marine ecosystems. The Sulu-Sulawesi Sea forms a major geopolitical focus, with porous borders, transmigration, separatist movements, piracy, and illegal fishing all contributing to environmental degradation, human suffering and political instability, and inhibiting strong trilateral support for interventions. This review analyzes these multifarious environmental and socioeconomic impacts and their root causes, provides a future prognosis of status by 2020, and recommends policy options aimed at amelioration through sustainable management and development.