Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with appropriate log maximum likelihood functions. For the spiders, the model is fitted to provide evolutionary feasible colony size based on maximum likelihood estimates of fecundity and survival data. For the migratory bird species, a maximum likelihood estimates are derived for the fecundity and survival rates of young and adult birds and immigration rate. The presented approach allows computation of quantities of interest such as probability of extinction and average time to extinction.     

Stream corridor management in the Pacific Northwest: II. Management strategies

King County, Washington is part of the rapidly growing Pacific Northwest region. Analysis of past and current federal, state, and county regulations and administation reveals how stream corridors have been protected to date. This article draws on scientific literature and a case study to suggest future management strategies and guidelines for controlling development in King County watersheds.     

Early detection of abdominal pregnancy by maternal serum AFP+ screening

We present two cases of abdominal pregnancy identified in our maternal serum screening programme—an additional, as yet unreported benefit of AFP+ (multiple analyte) maternal serum oncofetal antigen screening in pregnancy.     

Measuring the effectiveness of an industrial lift truck safety training program

A behavior (work) sampling approach was used to both develop and evaluate the effectiveness of an occupational safety training program for industrial lift truck operators. Two studies, each using different experimental designs and performed at two separate warehouses, were conducted, resulting in a total of 96 operators trained. Observations through several months of training program assessment indicated that: (a) occupational safety training, emphasizing modification of operationally defined unsafe work practices derived from task/hazard analysis, can be demonstrated to be effective and to endure beyond cessation of performance feedback; (b) the basis for endurance appears to be continued practice in the modified safe work procedures, coupled with a redefinition of group norms sustained through informal influences such as peer modeling of desired behaviors and continued management support of the program; and (c) a behavior sampling procedure, specifying performancebased criteria, can be used effectively in both the development and evaluation of an occupational-safety training program.     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.     

Visible-near infrared reflectance spectroscopy for rapid, nondestructive assessment of wetland soil quality

Recent evidence supports using visible-near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (VNIRS) for sensing soil quality; advantages include low-cost, nondestructive, rapid analysis that retains high analytical accuracy for numerous soil performance measures. Research has primarily targeted agricultural applications (precision agriculture, performance diagnostics), but implications for assessing ecological systems are equally significant. Our objective was to extend chemometrics for sensing soil quality to wetlands. Hydric soils posed two challenges. First, wetland soils exhibit a wider range of organic matter concentrations, particularly in riparian areas where levels range from <1% in sedimentation zones to >90% in backwater floodplains; this may mute spectral responses from other soil fractions. Second, spectral inference of cation concentrations in terrestrial soils is for oxidized species; under reducing conditions in wetlands, oxidation state variability is observed, which strongly affects chroma. Riparian soils (n = 273) from western Florida exhibiting substantial target parameter variability were compiled. After minimal pre-processing, soils were scanned under artificial illumination using a laboratory spectrometer. A multivariate data mining technique (regression trees) was used to relate post-processed reflectance spectra to laboratory observations (pH, organic content, cation concentrations, total N, C, and P, extracellular enzyme activity). High validation accuracy was generally observed (r2(validation) > 0.8, RPD > 2.0, where RPD is the ratio of the standard deviation of an attribute to the observed standard error of validation); where accuracy was lower, categorical models (classification trees) successfully screened samples based on diagnostic functional thresholds (validation odds ratio > 10). Graphical models verified significant association between predictions and observations for all parameters, conditioning on biogeochemical covariates. Visible-near infrared reflectance spectroscopy offers both cost and statistical power advantages; hydric conditions do not appear to constrain application.