Where the wild things are: predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds ("hotspots"). We developed habitat-association models for 16 species using information from at-sea observations collected over an 11-year period (1997-2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single-species predictive models using a machine-learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single-species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas ("core areas") to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine-scale information for focal areas.     

Nutrient concentrations in Maryland non-tidal streams

Using a spatially extensive database from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS), we describe nutrient relationships of small-order, non-tidal streams to Maryland watershed basins, Maryland Tributary Strategy basins, and stream order. In addition, we estimate the number of stream km affected by nutrient loading, using derived nutrient criteria. Based on the MBSS spring water quality sampling, we determined several important factors relating to nutrient levels in non-tidal streams. There are strong linear relationships of nutrients to the percentage of agriculture and forested land present within MBSS sampling strata. Both mean total nitrogen (TN) and mean total phosphorus (TP) levels for watershed basins by stream order show exceedances of derived nutrient reference criteria for Maryland. Four Maryland basins have over 85% of their stream kilometers exceeding the TN criterion, with three basins over 90% of the TP criterion. To protect small stream integrity in Maryland, we recommend an upper stream TN criterion between 1.34 and 1.68 mg/L and an upper stream TP criterion between 0.025 and 0.037 mg/L, based on quantile analyses. Elevated levels of both TN and TP are present in non-tidal streams, with subsequent nutrient inputs into the upper freshwater tidal reaches of the Chesapeake Bay.     

Sustainability in Practice

Sweden has led the way in Europe in environmental protection, ecologically based technological innovation and social democracy. As new economic and ethnographic realities impact upon it, it faces challenges to its policies and practices long familiar elsewhere in Europe. We report on a study for the Swedish Research Councils in which we examined the national framework and political strategy for sustainable development, and how the strategy is being implemented in Sweden's three major cities and two case-study municipalities. History and tradition, cultural homogeneity and a strong and shared sense between sectors of 'the public good', emerged as very important. Until recently, these have obviated the need for formal links between the environmental, social and economic agendas. They now appear inadequately developed at all levels of governance. Tensions in policy are being played out at the level of the municipality, to which power is highly devolved, and Local Agenda 21, interpreted as project rather than process, seems unequal to the task of integration. We suggest what lessons may be drawn from the Swedish experience if issues of power and trust, leadership and participatory vs representative democracy are to be resolved.     

Island Extinction Rates from Regular Censuses

Regular censuses conducted over a long time allow the calculation of both extinction and immigration rates. We present formulae for estimation of those rates. We use them on bird censuses of three British islands. These formulae improve on previous estimators of extinction but reaffirm that smaller populations have a higher probability of becoming extinct. On the other hand, they suggest no correlation between extinction rate and either body size or migratory status among birds.     

Association patterns of spider monkeys: the influence of ecology and sex on social organization

Summary In this paper I consider how the costs and benefits of group living in spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) vary between troop members. The results suggest that ecological factors set an upper limit to the number of spider monkeys that can associate and still efficiently exploit the available resources. In addition, the needs of the individual appears to influence the type and size of the subgroup it chooses. Adult males band together, travel over a large area, and are frequently sighted near the community's boundary. In contrast, adult females spend more time solitary than males and have association patterns that are strongly influenced by the presence of a dependent infant. Females with dependent infants tend to travel in small subgroups or alone, avoid the boundaries of the community's home range, and exhibit a restricted pattern of use of their range. The results suggest that males may be attempting to locate females with which they can breed, while mothers attempt to protect their infants by avoiding conspecifics and potentially dangerous situations near territorial boundaries.     

Does the preferential microbial colonisation of ferromagnesian minerals affect mineral weathering in soil?

Fungal activity is thought to play a direct and effective role in the breakdown and dissolution of primary minerals and in the synthesis of clay minerals in soil environments, with important consequences for plant growth and ecosystem functioning. We have studied primary mineral weathering in volcanic soils developed on trachydacite in southern Tuscany using a combination of qualitative and quantitative mineralogical and microbiological techniques. Specifically, we characterized the weathering and microbiological colonization of the magnetically separated ferromagnesian minerals (biotite and orthopyroxene) and non-ferromagnesian constituents (K-feldspar and volcanic glass) of the coarse sand fraction (250-1,000 microm). Our results show that in the basal horizons of the soils, the ferromagnesian minerals are much more intensively colonized by microorganisms than K-feldspar and glass, but that the composition of the microbial communities living on the two mineral fractions is similar. Moreover, X-ray diffraction, optical and scanning electron microscope observations show that although the ferromagnesian minerals are preferentially associated with an embryonic form of the clay mineral halloysite, they are still relatively fresh. We interpret our results as indicating that in this instance microbial activity, and particularly fungal activity, has not been an effective agent of mineral weathering, that the association with clay minerals is indirect, and that fungal weathering of primary minerals may not be as important a source of plant nutrients as previously claimed.     

Elevated CO2 affects the behavior of an ecologically and economically important coral reef fish

We tested the effect of near-future CO₂ levels (≈490, 570, 700, and 960 μatm CO₂) on the olfactory responses and activity levels of juvenile coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus, a piscivorous reef fish that is also one of the most important fisheries species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Juvenile coral trout reared for 4 weeks at 570 μatm CO₂ exhibited similar sensory responses and behaviors to juveniles reared at 490 μatm CO₂ (control). In contrast, juveniles reared at 700 and 960 μatm CO₂ exhibited dramatically altered sensory function and behaviors. At these higher CO₂ concentrations, juveniles became attracted to the odor of potential predators, as has been observed in other reef fishes. They were more active, spent less time in shelter, ventured further from shelter, and were bolder than fish reared at 490 or 570 μatm CO₂. These results demonstrate that behavioral impairment of coral trout is unlikely if pCO₂ remains below 600 μatm; however, at higher levels, there are significant impacts on juvenile performance that are likely to affect survival and energy budgets, with consequences for predator–prey interactions and commercial fisheries.     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.