Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

The importance of solid-phase distribution on the oral bioaccessibility of Ni and Cr in soils overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas, Northern Ireland

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including nickel and chromium are often present in soils overlying basalt at concentrations above regulatory guidance values due to the presence of these elements in underlying geology. Oral bioaccessibility testing allows the risk posed by PTEs to human health to be assessed; however, bioaccessibility is controlled by factors including mineralogy, particle size, solid-phase speciation and encapsulation. X-ray diffraction was used to characterise the mineralogy of 12 soil samples overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas in Northern Ireland, and non-specific sequential extraction coupled with chemometric analysis was used to determine the distribution of elements amongst soil components in 3 of these samples. The data obtained were related to total concentration and oral bioaccessible concentration to determine whether a relationship exists between the overall concentrations of PTEs, their bioaccessibility and the soils mineralogy and geochemistry. Gastric phase bioaccessible fraction (BAF %) ranged from 0.4 to 5.4 % for chromium in soils overlying basalt and bioaccessible and total chromium concentrations are positively correlated. In contrast, the range of gastric phase BAF for nickel was greater (1.4–43.8 %), while no significant correlation was observed between bioaccessible and total nickel concentrations. However, nickel BAF was inversely correlated with total concentration. Solid-phase fractionation information showed that bioaccessible nickel was associated with calcium carbonate, aluminium oxide, iron oxide and clay-related components, while bioaccessible chromium was associated with clay-related components. This suggests that weathering significantly affects nickel bioaccessibility, but does not have the same effect on the bioaccessibility of chromium.     

Correlation analysis as a tool to investigate the bioaccessibility of nickel, vanadium and zinc in Northern Ireland soils

Correlation analyses were conducted on nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) oral bioaccessible fractions (BAFs) and selected geochemistry parameters to identify specific controls exerted over trace element bioaccessibility. BAFs were determined by previous research using the unified BARGE method. Total trace element concentrations and soil geochemical parameters were analysed as part of the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland Tellus Project. Correlation analysis included Ni, V and Zn BAFs against their total concentrations, pH, estimated soil organic carbon (SOC) and a further eight element oxides. BAF data were divided into three separate generic bedrock classifications of basalt, lithic arenite and mudstone prior to analysis, resulting in an increase in average correlation coefficients between BAFs and geochemical parameters. Sulphur trioxide and SOC, spatially correlated with upland peat soils, exhibited significant positive correlations with all BAFs in gastric and gastro-intestinal digestion phases, with such effects being strongest in the lithic arenite bedrock group. Significant negative relationships with bioaccessible Ni, V and Zn and their associated total concentrations were observed for the basalt group. Major element oxides were associated with reduced oral trace element bioaccessibility, with Al₂O₃ resulting in the highest number of significant negative correlations followed by Fe₂O₃. spatial mapping showed that metal oxides were present at reduced levels in peat soils. The findings illustrate how specific geology and soil geochemistry exert controls over trace element bioaccessibility, with soil chemical factors having a stronger influence on BAF results than relative geogenic abundance. In general, higher Ni, V and Zn bioaccessibility is expected in peat soil types.     

Scale-dependent responses of plant biodiversity to nitrogen enrichment

Experimental studies demonstrating that nitrogen (N) enrichment reduces plant diversity within individual plots have led to the conclusion that anthropogenic N enrichment is a threat to global biodiversity. These conclusions overlook the influence of spatial scale, however, as N enrichment may alter beta diversity (i.e., how similar plots are in their species composition), which would likely alter the degree to which N-induced changes in diversity within localities translate to changes in diversity at larger scales that are relevant to policy and management. Currently, it is unclear how N enrichment affects biodiversity at scales larger than a small plot. We synthesized data from 18 N-enrichment experiments across North America to examine the effects of N enrichment on plant species diversity at three spatial scales: small (within plots), intermediate (among plots), and large (within and among plots). We found that N enrichment reduced plant diversity within plots by an average of 25% (ranging from a reduction of 61% to an increase of 5%) and frequently enhanced beta diversity. The extent to which N enrichment altered beta diversity, however, varied substantially among sites (from a 22% increase to an 18% reduction) and was contingent on site productivity. Specifically, N enrichment enhanced beta diversity at low-productivity sites but reduced beta diversity at high-productivity sites. N-induced changes in beta diversity generally reduced the extent of species loss at larger scales to an average of 22% (ranging from a reduction of 54% to an increase of 18%). Our results demonstrate that N enrichment often reduces biodiversity at both local and regional scales, but that a focus on the effects of N enrichment on biodiversity at small spatial scales may often overestimate (and sometimes underestimate) declines in regional biodiversity by failing to recognize the effects of N on beta diversity.     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Stable carbon isotope ratio and composition of microbial fatty acids in tropical soils

The soil microbial community plays a critical part in tropical ecosystem functioning through its role in the soil organic matter (SOM) cycle. This study evaluates the relative effects of soil type and land use on (i) soil microbial community structure and (ii) the contribution of SOM derived from the original forest vegetation to the functioning of pasture and sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) ecosystems. We used principal components analysis (PCA) of soil phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) profiles to evaluate microbial community structure and PLFA stable carbon isotope ratios (delta13C) as indicators of the delta13C of microbial substrates. Soil type mainly determined the relative proportions of gram positive versus gram negative bacteria whereas land use primarily determined the relative proportion of fungi, protozoa, and actinomycetes versus other types of microorganisms. Comparison of a simple model to our PLFA delta13C data from land use chronosequences indicates that forest-derived SOM is actively cycled for appreciably longer times in sugarcane ecosystems developed on Andisols (mean turnover time = 50 yr) than in sugarcane ecosystems developed on an Oxisol (mean turnover time = 13 yr). Our analyses indicate that soil chronosequence PLFA delta13C measurements can be useful indicators of the contribution that SOM derived from the original vegetation makes to continued ecosystem function under the new land use.     

Sorption and photolysis studies in soil and sediment of the herbicide napropamide

The influence of soil and sediment composition on sorption and photodegradation of the herbicide napropamide [N,N-diethyl-2-(1-naphthyloxy)propionamide] was investigated. Five soils and one sediment were selected for this study and the clay fractions were obtained by sedimentation. Sorption-desorption was studied by batch equilibration technique and photolysis in a photoreactor emitting within 300-450 nm wavelength with a maximum at 365 nm. Sorption increased with clay content and was not related to organic matter content. High irreversibility of sorption was related to the greater montmorillonite content. The presence of soil or sediment reduced photolysis rate due to screen effect and this process did not depend on solid composition but on particle size distribution.     

RIVER RECREATION: PUBLIC ACCESS VS. RIPARIAN RIGHTS1

ABSTRACT: The issues involved in the conflict between the rights of the public and those of riparian landowners are examined by reviewing the public access situation with regard to inland streams in the State of Virginia. Consideration is given to the legal framework defining access rights and to the attitudes of riparian landowners regarding the access question. Existing provisions of law suggest only limited recognition of public rights, but this law is incompletely developed. A considerably broader concept of public rights could be developed within the existing framework due to the existence of unresolved questions. The analysis of landowner attitudes is based on a survey of a sample of riparian owners chosen from throughout the state. The questionnaire used in the survey contained 123 questions in a variety of areas, including landowners' perceptions of public rights, problems encountered as the result of recreational water use, attitudes toward state designation and protection of scenic rivers, and the acceptability of alternatives for increasing public access. Although the survey results indicate substantial acceptance of the concept of public use, the landowners expressed concern over governmental control of land use and did not indicate a generally acceptable means for increasing public use.     

Optimization of the high-pressure, near-critical liquid-based microsortation of recyclable post-consumer plastics

High-pressure, near-critical liquids were used as float-sink separation media for the microsortation of polyolefin mixtures and PET/PVC mixtures. Near-critical carbon dioxide was used for the refinement of the polyolefins, and sulfur hexafluoride was used to separate post-consumer PVC from PET. Preliminary experiments indicated that there was no overlap in the density ranges of post-consumer HDPE, LDPE and PP containers. There was no overlap in the PET and PVC densities, with the exception of a single PVC packaging material with a density in the PET range. These initial results indicated that a float-sink separation was a viable means of microsortation. Separations of 91% LDPE (1/8′ beads)/9% PP (1/8′ chopped strands) resin mixtures and mixed post-consumer polyolefin flakes were then conducted in a laboratory-scale, 1-I batch apparatus. This apparatus not only permitted the observation of the separation, but also enabled the separated fractions to be removed from the high-pressure environment. The results indicated that LDPE purity of greater than 98.9% was obtained in 3 min or less if (a) the fluid density was 0.018 g/cm³ greater than the PP density and only 0.002 g/cm³ less than the LDPE density, thereby providing the greatest buoyancy force for the removal of the PP, (b) the fluid was recirculated upward through the bed of mixed plastics, facilitating the upward movement of the PP, and (c) the loading was kept at levels below 40% by volume. HDPE purity of 99% was also attained with clean, dry, post-consumer mixed plastic flakes. The loadings for these separations were very low, however, due to the difficulty in agitating the mixed bed of plastics using fluid recirculation. An economic analysis of these microsortation processes indicated that the value of the sorted plastics relative to the mixed feed must increase by approx. $0.08/lb for the CO₂-based separation and approx. $0.27/lb for the SF₆-based separation to justify the implementation of these high-pressure processes.