Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact

In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 μg m^?3) and lowest in Australia (3.6 μg m^?3). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O₃ standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Pilot sample risk analysis for underground coal mine fires and explosions using MSHA citation data

After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state.     

At the intersection of disaster risk and religion: interpretations and responses to the threat of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake

Over the last several decades, the scientific community has replaced the ‘acts of god’ explanations for disasters with a view that disasters are actually ‘acts of nature,’ and more recently, ‘acts of human behavior and decision making.’ Despite the secular orientation of contemporary disaster research, religious beliefs still govern people’s interpretations of natural events across many continents and cultures. Using a case study of a rural Sherpa community in Nepal, this paper responds to the challenge of linking religion and disaster risk in the context of a climate change-induced glacial lake outburst flood hazard. Data collection employed ethnographic techniques including participant observation and 53 interviews with community members. Results indicate that the case study community’s religious belief system influences how they interpret and respond to the glacial lake hazard, although their beliefs co-exist with more scientific interpretations of risk. Rather than being immobilised by their belief system, we found that religious aspects like rituals and prayer can enhance social cohesion and contribute to capacities for coping with fear and uncertainty in this community. We assert that religion can yield valuable resources to glacial lake risk reduction strategies, which will benefit from incorporating social-cultural factors more profoundly.     

A novel use of anaerobically digested liquid swine manure to potentially control soybean cyst nematode

Experiments were carried out in two steps to determine the effect of anaerobically digested swine manure on soybean cyst nematode (SCN) egg control. In the first step, liquid swine manure underwent anaerobic digestion to search for the best digestion time for both volatile fatty acids (VFA) and ammonium nitrogen (NH₄ ⁺) enrichment. The results showed that about 17 and 28 days of incubation were needed, respectively, to reach the maximal levels of VFA and NH₄ ⁺ in the manure. In the second step, raw, VFA-enriched, and NH₄ ⁺-enriched manure were applied separately, at four different rates (25, 50, 100, and 200 mL/pot), to soil pots inoculated with nematode eggs in a greenhouse environment. Soil samples were collected 35 and 61 days after inoculation to determine the effect of such treated manure on SCN egg productivity. The data indicated that the SCN egg counts were inversely related to the manure application rates in a linear manner with correlation coefficients of 0.998, 0.967, and 0.900 for raw, NH₄ ⁺-enriched, and VFA-enriched manure for the 35-day samples. While no such relationships were found for the 61-day samples, implying that none of the treatments were still effective 61 days after application. At the four application rates, the VFA-enriched manure performed best in reducing SCN egg counts (by 18.1, 19.5, 34.3, and 18.6%) as compared to the raw manure treatment. In contrast, the NH₄ ⁺-enriched manure achieved mostly negative reductions. To achieve the best control of SCN egg growth, the VFA-enriched manure should be used and applied to soybean fields every 35 days.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Kinetics study of fermentative hydrogen production from liquid swine manure supplemented with glucose under controlled pH

Kinetics of H₂ production from liquid swine manure supplemented with glucose by mixed anaerobic cultures was investigated using batch experiments under four different pH conditions (4.4, 5.0, 5.6, and uncontrolled). The temperature for the experiments was controlled at 37 ± 1°C and the length of experiments varied between 50 and 120 hours, depending upon the time needed for completion of each individual experiment. The modified Gompertz model was evaluated for its suitability for describing the H₂ production potential, H₂ production rate, and substrate consumption rate for all the experiments. The results showed that the Gompertz model could adequately fit the experimental results. The effect of pH was significant on all kinetic parameters for H₂ production including yield, production rate and lag time, and the substrate utilization rate. The optimal pH was found to be 5.0, at which a maximum H₂ production rate (0.64 L H₂/h) was obtained, and deviation from the optimal pH could result in substantial reductions in H₂ production rate (0.32 L H₂/h for pH 4.0 and 0.43 L H₂/h for pH 5.6). The results also showed that if pH was not controlled for the batch fermentation process, the substrate utilization efficiency could steeply decrease from 98.8% to 33.7%.     

Low-disturbance manure incorporation effects on ammonia and nitrate loss

Low-disturbance manure application methods can provide the benefits of manure incorporation, including reducing ammonia (NH3) emissions, in production systems where tillage is not possible. However, incorporation can exacerbate nitrate (NO3?) leaching. We sought to assess the trade-offs in NH3 and NO3? losses caused by alternative manure application methods. Dairy slurry (2006-2007) and liquid swine manure (2008-2009) were applied to no-till corn by (i) shallow (<10 cm) disk injection, (ii) surface banding with soil aeration, (iii) broadcasting, and (iv) broadcasting with tillage incorporation. Ammonia emissions were monitored for 72 h after application using ventilated chambers and passive diffusion samplers, and NO3? leaching to 80 cm was monitored with buried column lysimeters. The greatest NH3 emissions occurred with broadcasting (35-63 kg NH3-N ha?), and the lowest emissions were from unamended soil (<1 kg NH-N ha?1). Injection decreased NH-N emissions by 91 to 99% compared with broadcasting and resulted in lower emissions than tillage incorporation 1 h after broadcasting. Ammonia-nitrogen emissions from banding manure with aeration were inconsistent between years, averaging 0 to 71% that of broadcasting. Annual NO3? leaching losses were small (<25 kg NO3-N ha?1) and similar between treatments, except for the first winter when NO3? leaching was fivefold greater with injection. Because NO3? leaching with injection was substantially lower over subsequent seasons, we hypothesize that the elevated losses during the first winter were through preferential flow paths inadvertently created during lysimeter installation. Overall, shallow disk injection yielded the lowest NH3 emissions without consistently increasing NO3? leaching, whereas manure banding with soil aeration conserved inconsistent amounts of N.     

New measurements of cyanobacterial toxins in natural waters using high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry

The presence and levels of the cyanobacterial toxins microcystin-LR, anatoxin-a, and cylindrospermopsin were measured in various Wisconsin waters where algal nuisance or bloom conditions were noted. Out of 74 samples analyzed, 36 had detectable levels of microcystin-LR (49%), and four had detectable levels of anatoxin-a (5%). Cylindrospermopsin, the toxin produced by Cylindrospermopsis (a warm water species that has been moving its range northward, including to Wisconsin), was not detected in the field samples tested. Concentrations of microcystin-LR ranged from 1.2 to 7600 microg L(-1). Anatoxin-a ranged from 0.68 to 1750 microg L(-1), which is the highest concentration reported from around the world. Cyanobacterial toxins, because of their high potency, deserve continued scrutiny by resource managers and public health officials responsible for recreational waters.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.