Is the Mantel correlogram powerful enough to be useful in ecological analysis? A simulation study

The Mantel correlogram is an elegant way to compute a correlogram for multivariate data. However, recent papers raised concerns about the power of the Mantel test itself. Hence the question: Is the Mantel correlogram powerful enough to be useful? To explore this issue, we compared the performances of the Mantel correlogram to those of other methods, using numerical simulations based on random, normally distributed data. For a single response variable, we compared it to the Moran and Geary correlograms. Type I error rates of the three methods were correct. Power of the Mantel correlogram was nearly as high as that of the univariate methods. For the multivariate case, the test of the multivariate variogram developed in the context of multiscale ordination is in fact a Mantel test, so that the power of the two methods is the same by definition. We devised an alternative permutation test based on the variance, which yielded similar results. Overall, the power of the Mantel test was high, the method successfully detecting spatial correlation at rates similar to the permutation test of the variance statistic in multivariate variograms. We conclude that the Mantel correlogram deserves its place in the ecologist's toolbox.     

Carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, U.S.A.: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes

During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for monitoring C storage and fire management to minimize C loss. In this study, we used projections of 21st century area burned to explore the consequences of changes in fire regimes on C dynamics in forests of Washington State. We used a novel empirical approach that takes advantage of chronosequences of C pools and fluxes and statistical properties of fire regimes to explore the effects of shifting age class distributions on C dynamics. Forests of the western Cascades are projected to be more sensitive to climate-driven increases in fire, and thus projected changes in C dynamics, than forests of the eastern Cascades. In the western Cascades, mean live biomass C is projected to decrease by 24-37%, and coarse woody debris (CWD) biomass C by 15-25% for the 2040s. Loss of live biomass C is projected to be lower for forests of the eastern Cascades and Okanogan Highlands (17-26%), and CWD biomass is projected to increase. Landscape mean net primary productivity is projected to increase in wet low-elevation forests of the western Cascades, but decrease elsewhere. These forests, and moist forests of the Okanogan Highlands, are projected to have the greatest percentage increases in consumption of live biomass. Percentage increases in consumption of CWD biomass are greater than 50% for all regions and up to four times greater than increases in consumption of live biomass. Carbon sequestration in PNW forests will be highly sensitive to increases in fire, suggesting a cautious approach to managing these forests for C sequestration to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions.     

Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management

The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning.     

Quantitative PCR analysis of house dust can reveal abnormal mold conditions

Indoor mold concentrations were measured in the dust of moldy homes (MH) and reference homes (RH) by quantitative PCR (QPCR) assays for 82 species or related groups of species (assay groups). About 70% of the species and groups were never or only rarely detected. The ratios (MH geometric mean : RH geometric mean) for 6 commonly detected species (Aspergillus ochraceus, A. penicillioides, A. unguis, A. versicolor, Eurotium group, and Cladosporium sphaerospermum) were >1 (Group I). Logistic regression analysis of the sum of the logs of the concentrations of Group I species resulted in a 95% probability for separating MH from RH. These results suggest that it may be possible to evaluate whether a home has an abnormal mold condition by quantifying a limited number of mold species in a dust sample. Also, four common species of Aspergillus were quantified by standard culturing procedures and their concentrations compared to QPCR results. Culturing underestimated the concentrations of these four species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to QPCR.     

Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change

The use of assimilation tools for satellite validation requires true estimates of the accuracy of the reference data. Since its inception, the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) has provided systematic lidar measurements of ozone and temperature at several places around the world that are well adapted for satellite validations. Regular exercises have been organised to ensure the data quality at each individual site. These exercises can be separated into three categories: large scale intercomparisons using multiple instruments, including a mobile lidar; using satellite observations as a geographic transfer standards to compare measurements at different sites; and comparative investigations of the analysis software. NDSC is a research network, so each system has its own history, design, and analysis, and has participated differently in validation campaigns. There are still some technological differences that may explain different accuracies. However, the comparison campaigns performed over the last decade have always proved to be very helpful in improving the measurements. To date, more efforts have been devoted to characterising ozone measurements than to temperature observations. The synthesis of the published works shows that the network can potentially be considered as homogeneous within +/-2% between 20-35 km for ozone and +/-1 K between 35-60 km for temperature. Outside this altitude range, larger biases are reported and more efforts are required. In the lower stratosphere, Raman channels seem to improve comparisons but such capabilities were not systematically compared. At the top of the profiles, more investigations on analysis methodologies are still probably needed. SAGE II and GOMOS appear to be excellent tools for future ozone lidar validations but need to be better coordinated and take more advantage of assimilation tools. Also, temperature validations face major difficulties caused by atmospheric tides and therefore require intercomparisons with the mobile systems, at all sites.     

Monochlorobenzene Marine Risk Assessment with Special Reference to the Osparcom Region: North Sea

This risk assessment on monochlorobenzene was carried out for the marine environment, following methodology given in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1996). Data from analytical monitoring programmes in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area were collected and evaluated for effects and environmental concentrations. Risk is indicated by the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) to predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 27 data for fish, 24 data for invertebrates and 13 data for algae were evaluated. Acute and chronic toxicity studies were taken into account and appropriate assessment factors used to define a final PNEC value of 32 micro/l. Recent monitoring data indicate that monochlorobenzene levels in surface waters are below determination limits of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5 microg/l used in monitoring programs. Assuming that half of the lowest determination (0.1 microg/l) is typical, a PEC of 0.05 microg/l was derived. A worst case of 0.5 microg/l is assumed. PEC/PNEC ratios give safety factors of 60 to over 500, taking no account of dilution in the sea. Monochlorobenzene is not a 'toxic, persistent and liable to bioaccumulate' substance sensu the Oslo and Paris Conventions for the Prevention of Marine Pollution (OSPAR-DYNAMEC) criteria. Environmental fate and effects data indicate that current use of monochlorobenzene poses no unacceptable risk to the aquatic environment.     

Trace Element Analyses in an Epiphytic Lichen and its Bark Substrate to Assess Suitability for Air Biomonitoring

Total concentrations of Cd, Cr, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn were compared from October 1996 to April 1998 in Physcia biziana (Massal.) Zhalbr. v. leptophylla Vezda and in the bark of Quercus ilex L. sampled from the same trees at an urban park. Trace metal concentrations were also measured in the bark covered by the lichen thalli. The lichens showed significantly higher Cr, Fe, Ni and Zn concentrations than both uncovered and covered barks. By contrast, both types of barks had higher concentrations of Cd and Pb than lichens. Trace elements showed a wide temporal variation of concentrations both in the lichens and barks. No relationship was found between the analysed matrices as regards the time course of trace element concentrations.     

Pool of Dust Particles over the Asian Continent: Balloon-borne Optical Particle Counter and Ground-based Lidar Measurements at Dunhuang, China

Measurements of aerosols were made in 2001 and 2002 at Dunhuang (40 degrees 00'N, 94 degrees 30'E), China to understand the nature of atmospheric particles over the desert areas in the Asian continent. Balloon-borne measurements with an optical particle counter suggested that particle size and concentration had noticeable peaks in super micron size range not only in the boundary mixing layer but also in the free troposphere. Super-micron particle concentration largely decreased in the mid tropopause (from 5 to 10 km; above sea level, a.s.l.). Lidar measurements made during August 2002 at Dunhuang suggested the possibility that mixing of dust particles occurred from near the ground to about 6 km even under calm weather conditions, and a large depolarization ratio of particulate matter was found in the aerosol layer. The top of the aerosol layer was found at heights of nearly 6 km (a.s.l.). It is strongly suggested that nonspherical dust particles (Kosa particles) frequently diffused in the free atmosphere over the Taklamakan desert through small-scale turbulences and are possible sources of dust particles of weak Kosa events that have been identified in the free troposphere not only in spring but also in summer over Japanese archipelago. Electron microscopic experiments of the particles collected in the free troposphere confirmed that coarse and nonspherical particles observed by the mineral particle were major components of coarse mode (diameter larger than 1 microm) below about 5 km over Dunhuang, China.