Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

The interactions between plant growth,vegetation structure and soil processes in semi-natural acidic and calcareous grasslands receiving long-term inputs of simulated pollutant nitrogen deposition

Regular applications of ammonium nitrate (35-140 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) and ammonium sulphate (140 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) to areas of acidic and calcareous grassland in the Derbyshire Peak District over a period of 6 years, have resulted in significant losses in both overall plant cover, and the abundance of individual species, associated with clear and dose-related increases in shoot nitrogen content. No overall growth response to nitrogen treatment was seen at any stage in the experiment. Phosphorus additions to the calcareous plots did however lead to significant increases in plant cover and total biomass, indicative of phosphorus limitation in this system. Clear and dose-related increases in soil nitrogen mineralization rates were also obtained, consistent with marked effects of the nitrogen additions on soil processes. High nitrification rates were seen on the calcareous plots, and this process was associated with significant acidification of the 140 kg N ha(-1) year(-1) treatments.     

In vitro and in vivo studies of lead immobilization by synthetic hydroxyapatite

Apatite appears a useful compound for removing lead from water, due to its ability to immobilize the metal by precipitation. In dilute solution, dissolved hydroxyapatite [HA, Ca1O(P04)6(OH)2] provided phosphates that were reactive with aqueous lead (molar ratio HA/Pb= 1/10) forming precipitates at around pH 6. These dissolved at a more acidic pH (3). Solid HA in contact with Pb2+ions, led to the formation of pyromorphite [Pblo(P04)6(OH)2], identified by X-ray diffraction and insoluble at pH tested (3-8). The amount of pyromorphite increased with the weight ratio of HA/Pb. When this one increased from 1 to 1000, lead precipitated as pyromorphite rose from 19 to 99%. In vivo experiments on rats confirmed the in vitro results. In fact, lead bioavailability assessed by intestinal perfusion was unchanged in the presence of dissolved HA, whereas it was significantly lower in the presence of solid HA, evaluated by gastric intubation, at a weight ratio equal to 10 (amount of lead absorbed decreased by 60%). Apatite could bean effective means of immobilizing lead in drinking or sewage, since accidental pyromorphite ingestion does not yield bioavailable lead.     

Numerical simulation of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations by an ocean general circulation model

We simulated the spatial distributions and the temporal variations of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations in the ocean by using the ocean general circulation model which was developed by National Center of Atmospheric Research. These nuclides are introduced into seawaters from global fallout due to atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. The distribution of radioactive deposition on the world ocean is estimated from global precipitation data and observed values of annual deposition of radionuclides at the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan and several observed points in New Zealand. Radionuclides from global fallout have been transported by advection, diffusion and scavenging, and this concentration reduces by radioactive decay in the ocean. We verified the results of the model calculations by comparing simulated values of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu in seawater with the observed values included in the Historical Artificial Radionuclides in the HAM database, which has been constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute. The vertical distributions of the calculated 137Cs concentrations were in good agreement and are in good agreement with the observed profiles in the 1960s up to 250 m, in the 1970s up to 500 m, in the 1980s up to 750 m and in the 1990s up to 750 m. However, the calculated 137Cs concentrations were underestimated compared with the observed 137Cs at the deeper layer. This may suggest other transport processes of 137Cs to deep waters. The horizontal distributions of 137Cs concentrations in surface water could be simulated. A numerical tracer release experiment was performed to explain the horizontal distribution pattern. A maximum (239,240)Pu concentration layer occurs at an intermediate depth for both observed and calculated values, which is formed by particle scavenging. The horizontal distributions of the calculated (239,240)Pu concentrations in surface water could be simulated by considering the scavenging effect.     

Principles and issues in radiological ecological risk assessment

This paper provides a bridge between the fields of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and radioecology by presenting key biota dose assessment issues identified in the US Department of Energy's Graded Approach for Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota in a manner consistent with the US Environmental Protection Agency's framework for ERA. Current radiological ERA methods and data are intended for use in protecting natural populations of biota, rather than individual members of a population. Potentially susceptible receptors include vertebrates and terrestrial plants. One must ensure that all media, radionuclides (including short-lived radioactive decay products), types of radiations (i.e., alpha particles, electrons, and photons), and pathways (i.e., internal and external contamination) are combined in each exposure scenario. The relative biological effectiveness of alpha particles with respect to deterministic effects must also be considered. Expected safe levels of exposure are available for the protection of natural populations of aquatic biota (10 mGy d(-1)) and terrestrial plants (10 mGy d(-1)) and animals (1 mGy d(-1)) and are appropriate for use in all radiological ERA tiers, provided that appropriate exposure assumptions are used. Caution must be exercised (and a thorough justification provided) if more restrictive limits are selected, to ensure that the supporting data are of high quality, reproducible, and clearly relevant to the protection of natural populations.     

Playing with fire: the global threat presented by brominated flame retardants justifies urgent substitution

Few would now deny that the use of organobromine compounds to achieve fire retardancy in a diverse array of products and materials has led to contamination of the ecosphere on a widespread scale. This environmental prevalence and persistence of the brominated flame retardants, coupled with growing evidence of their potential for harm, present all too familiar parallels with the previous generation of persistent organic pollutants. Indeed, given the intrinsic properties of these brominated chemicals, the nature and extent of the current problem could well have been predicted in advance. The question is then whether we are prepared to let history repeat itself once more or to take precautionary action now to switch to more sustainable alternatives. The choice facing society is not between brominated flame retardants and unsafe products, but between fire safety leading to global contamination or fire safety achieved in less polluting ways. If we look beyond options for simple chemical-for-chemical substitution to alternative materials and designs, many of the solutions are already available. The remainder could undoubtedly be developed given the incentives to do so. However, a strong and clear policy approach, backed by legislative phase-outs within specified (and challenging) timeframes, will be necessary to break our current dependency on organobromine chemistry. This paper presents the justification for such an approach, reviews those initiatives already underway to replace brominated flame retardants and identifies pathways to the use of more sustainable products in the service of society.     

Multiplex-PCR and PCR-RFLP assays to monitor water quality against pathogenic bacteria

In this work we developed and optimized two molecular-based approaches to monitor rapidly, sensitively and specifically bacterial pathogens from three different genera, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Salmonella spp., directly in waters. To achieve this aim, firstly a multiplex-PCR assay (M-PCR) was optimized using a primer pair specific for each pathogen. Secondly, as a molecular confirmatory test after isolation of the pathogens by classical microbiological methods, PCR-RFLP of their amplified 16S rDNA genes was performed. It was observed from the results that the developed M-PCR assay has significant impact on the ability to detect sensitively, rapidly and specifically the three pathogens directly in water within a short time (5 h from sampling to obtain final results), therefore it represents a considerable advancement over other known more time-consuming and less-sensitive methods for identification and characterization of these kinds of pathogens.     

Effects of flue gas composition on the catalytic destruction of chlorinated aromatic compounds with a V-oxide catalyst

When using catalytic flue gas cleaning, several flue gas compounds may influence oxidation reactions of hazardous volatile organic compounds, possibly leading to lower reaction rates and, thus, to an incomplete destruction. Experimental investigations were performed with regard to the influence of selected flue gas compounds, like hydrogen chloride, sulfur dioxide, oxygen, and water vapour, on the catalytic destruction behavior of chlorobenzenes under flue gas cleaning conditions of an incineration plant. For this purpose, a metal oxide catalyst was operated at different temperatures at a space velocity of 3600 h-1 in a laboratory-scale fixed bed reactor with model flue gases, and with real flue gases generated from the TAMARA waste incineration plant. The results obtained from the studies with model flue gas were analyzed with respect to reaction kinetics. These kinetics were applied for comparison with the experimental data gained in the real flue gas.     

Bioremediation of residual fertilizer nitrate: II. Soil redox potential and soluble iron as indicators of soil health during treatment

The prospect of using wastewater containing high loads of soluble organic matter (OM) for removing residual agricultural chemicals (fertilizer, pesticide, or herbicide) in farm soil, although promising, could have adverse effects on soil agricultural quality as a result of development of redoximorphic features in the soil profile. In this study, the effect of organic carbon supplement for bioremediation of residual fertilizer nitrate on soil properties, redox potential (Eh), pH, and metal ion mobilization was studied using sandy soils packed in columns. The study was included in a general project, described elsewhere (Ugwuegbu et al., 2000), undertaken to evaluate use of controlled water table management (WTM) systems to supply organic carbon for creating a reduced environment conducive to denitrification of residual fertilizer nitrate leaching from the farm to subsurface water. The columns were subjected to subirrigation with water containing soluble organic carbon in the form of glucose. The work was carried out in two experimental setups and the long-term effect of a range of glucose concentrations on the Eh, pH, and soluble levels of Fe and Mn was investigated. From the results obtained, it could be concluded that excessive organic carbon supplement to soil can have adverse effects on soil quality and that Eh and soluble Fe are the two most practical parameters for monitoring soil health during treatment of farm chemicals.     

Local people's perceptions of planning and management issues in Prespes Lakes National Park, Greece

Local people's perceptions of planning and management issues were investigated in Prespes Lakes National Park in north-western Greece, 24 years after designation. Ensued conflicts due to lack of local community participation in the designation procedure and in the decision-making process thereafter necessitated this research. Knowledge of the park and its aims, source of information about aims, necessity for works and facilities, attitudes toward certain policies, and effectiveness of administration and management scheme, were studied by means of a questionnaire survey. Respondents were contacted by systematic sampling, which resulted in 201 cases for analysis. Poor knowledge of aims associated with education of people was revealed and the managing authority (the Forest Service) as source of information was mentioned in only one case. Forest recreation facilities and improvement of accessibility were considered of high priority, as means of possible tourism development of the area. A policy of non-intensive agriculture with compensation for loss of income, if the wetlands of the park were in danger, seems acceptable, younger ages accepting it more easily. The need for a new administration and management scheme with the participation of local communities in the decision-making process was revealed, supported mainly by the younger age groups. Finally, the results indicated that the information derived from such research could help managers of protected areas to resolve arising conflicts.