INSIGHT: a framework for determining impacts of changes in land and water policies.

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems is constructing a spatially explicit modelling system capable of exploring alternative land and water policy alternatives against plausible price, cost, and climate scenarios for the next 20 years. INSIGHT will be used to identify the likely impacts of land and water policy options on regional economies and structural adjustment. Flowcharts have been constructed for most of the major crop and pasture and associated economic models for commodities produced in the Lachlan River Catchment of New South Wales. This enabled the most important components and interrelationships within these models to be readily identified. The next step has been to construct models at the regional scale that contain the essential elements of the more-detailed point models. The paper describes the progress to date in describing these models, and how they have been integrated into a coordinated agricultural crop production evaluation system.     

Brain myelination in rats treated with ionizing radiation in utero

Abstract

Effects of ionizing radiation on brain myelination and some physical development parameters were studied in laboratory rats (Fisher F‐344 inbred strain). Rats were treated with three different doses of radiation (150 rad, 15 rad, and 6.8 rad) delivered on the 20th day of prenatal life. Exposure to 150 rad reduced body, brain, ovary, kidney, heart and spleen weights. Prenatal exposure to 150 rad of radiation reduced the cerebral cortex weight by 22 percent at 30 days of age, and 20 percent at 52 days of age which caused a reduction in cerebral cortex myelin content by 20 and 23 percent at the ages of 30 and 52 days respectively. This dose did not affect the myelin content of the cerebellum or the brain stem, or the myelin concentration (mg myelin/g brain tissue) of the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, and the brain stem. The cerebral cortex weight of the 15 rad treated rats was reduced at the age of 30 days. Exposure to 15 rad, and 6.8 rad did not affect either the myelin content or the myelin concentration of these brain areas.     

Photochemical Reactivities of Paraffinic Hydrocarbon-Nitrogen Oxide Mixtures Upon Addition of Propylene or Toluene

Effects associated with photochemical air pollution were measured during irradiation of n-butane-nitrogen oxide or n-butane-ethane-nitrogen oxide mixtures, with small amounts of propylene or toluene added. The effects measured including nitrogen dioxide and oxidant dosages, yields of formaldehyde and peroxy-acetyl nitrate, and eye irritation response. The results obtained clearly show that beneficial effects result from selective changes in hydrocarbon composition as well as from reduction of total hydrocarbon concenfration. Exclusion of olefins and alkylbenzenes was highly effective in reducing oxidant dosage, formaldehyde and peroxyacetyl nitrate concentrations, and eye irritation response. The only penalty was a modest increase in nitrogen dioxide dosage. A large reduction in nitrogen oxide concentration reduced nitrogen dioxide dosage and eye irritation response, but with the penalty of a large increase in oxidant dosage. The desirability of preferentially reducing olefins and alkylbenzenes rather than paraffinic hydrocarbons, acetylene, and benzene is strongly supported by this study. Research and development efforts should be directed toward preferential hydrocarbon control by mechanical or catalytic control     

Isoprene emissions and climate

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle. Isoprene is quantitatively the most important of the non-methane BVOCs (NMBVOCs), with an annual emission of about 400–600 TgC; about 90% of this is emitted by terrestrial plants. Incorporating a mechanistic treatment of isoprene emissions within land-surface schemes has recently become a focus for the modelling community, the aim being to quantify the potential magnitude of associated climate feedbacks. However, these efforts are hampered by major uncertainties about why plants emit isoprene and the relative importance of different environmental controls on isoprene emission. The availability and reliability of observations of isoprene fluxes from different types of vegetation is limited, and this also imposes constraints on model development. Nevertheless, progress is being made towards the development of mechanistic models of isoprene emission which, in conjunction with atmospheric chemistry models, will ultimately allow improved quantification of the feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate under past and future climate states.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Can public participation help managing risks from natural hazards?

Most of the mitigation measures against natural hazards can not be perfectly allocated via the common market mechanism, given their principle character of being a public good. Thus, different instruments need to be applied to retrieve their values. Economic valuation tools are one alternative to estimate preferences of individuals towards these goods. These methods are often difficult to operationalise and are not a feasible task for every single project. An alternative is offered by direct preference representation through involving affected interest groups actively in decisions. A critical question is whether the decision on protection measures can be left to public participation or should remain in the experts’ decision responsibility. It can be observed that the latter mode shows inefficiencies. In this paper, it is argued that participation could be one way to bring about the desired goal of increasing efficiency. The present work offers a discussion of the relevant political economic concepts in order to introduce the idea that participation can increase efficiency through achieving the Pareto criterion claimed in the realm of constitutional economics. Furthermore it will be shown that decision aiding tools, namely multi-criteria analysis, can integrate participation into actual decision making processes in a structured way.     

Propane as an Engine Fuel for Clean Air Requirements

Air pollutants in exhaust gas produced from LP-gas (propane) were studied using both laboratory engines and vehicles. The objective of the study was both to evaluate propane as a low-pollution fuel and to provide information on adjustment of engine parameters for advantageous use of propane as a low-pollution fuel. Variables in the study were air-fuel ratio (A/F), ignition timing schedule, and ambient temperature. Data comparable to that for propane relating A/F and ambient temperature to emissions are shown for natural gas and for gasoline.     

Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.