Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Persistence of repeated triadimefon application and its impact on soil microbial functional diversity

The effects of repeated applications of the fungicide triadimefon in agricultural soil on the microbial functional diversity of the soil and on the persistence of the fungicide in the soil were investigated under laboratory conditions. The degradation half-lives of triadimefon at the recommended dosage, simulated by a first-order kinetic model, were 23.90, 22.95, and 21.52 days for the first, second, and third applications, respectively. Throughout this study, no significant inhibition of the Shannon-Wiener index (H') was observed. However, the Simpson index (1/D) and the McIntosh index (U) were obviously reduced (p ≤ 0.05) during the initial 3 days after the first triadimefon application and thereafter, gradually recovered to or exceeded the level of the control soil. A similar trend in variation but with a faster recovery in the 1/D and U was observed after the second and third triadimefon applications, respectively. Taken together, the above results indicate that the repeated application of triadimefon enhanced the degradation rate of the fungicide and the recovery rate of the soil microbial functional diversity. It is concluded that repeated triadimefon applications in soil have a transient or temporary inhibitory effect on soil microbial communities.     

Toxicity persistence in runoff and soil from experimental soybean plots following insecticide applications

Persistence of toxicity in runoff water and soil was investigated in experimental soybean plots subjected to successive runoff events following pesticide application. Runoff events were produced by irrigation using a sprinkler system. The pesticides applied were cypermethrin and endosulfan, which are widely used in soy production in Argentina. Toxicity tests were performed on two abundant components of the regional fauna, the amphipod Hyalella curvispina and the fish Cnesterodon decemmaculatus. Runoffs from two pesticide applications were assayed at different stages of the growing season: an early application when the soil was almost bare and a late one close to harvest, when the ground was covered by vegetation and just before soy leaves fell. Toxicity to H. curvispina in runoff ceased almost one month after the early application of the two pesticides, while it persisted for over three months after the late application. Soil toxicity to H. curvispina and runoff toxicity to C. decemmaculatus followed the same pattern. Higher temperatures and solar radiation are likely to have enhanced insecticide degradation after the early application. Lower temperatures and solar radiation in combination with increased organic matter from litter probably contributed to the longer persistence of toxicity recorded after the late application, as compared with the early application. Cypermethrin caused no mortality to C. decemmaculatus after the early application, while endosulfan toxicity persisted for almost four months after the late one.     

Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

Ultrafine particle fluxes above four major European cities

Little information is known about the behaviour of ultrafine particles (UFP) on a citywide scale. Total particle number flux, dominated by UFP, and other meteorological parameters were collected from tower sites in Manchester, London, Edinburgh and Gothenburg between 1999 and 2006 using the eddy covariance technique. Averaged diurnal cycles were produced for particle number flux, concentration, sensible heat flux, emission velocity, friction velocity, wind speed and temperature. UFP flux cycles showed clear diurnal trends which were linked to traffic activity and local sources. Wind sector analysis showed contributions to flux from local heavily urbanised areas. A simple parameterised model linking UFP flux to traffic activity, sensible heat and friction velocity above the city was produced.     

A validated 2-D diffusion–advection model for prediction of drift from ground boom sprayers

Correct field drift prediction is a key element in environmental risk assessment of spraying applications. A reduced order drift prediction model based on the diffusion–advection equation is presented. It allows fast assessment of the drift potential of specific ground boom applications under specific environmental wind conditions that obey the logarithmic wind profile. The model was calibrated based on simulations with a validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model. Validation of both models against 38 carefully conducted field experiments is successfully performed for distances up to 20 m from the field edge, for spraying on flat pasture land. The reduced order model succeeded in correct drift predictions for different nozzle types, wind velocities, boom heights and spray pressures. It used 4 parameters representing the physical aspects of the drift cloud; the height of the cloud at the field edge, the mass flux crossing the field edge, the settling velocity of the droplets and the turbulence. For the parameter set and range considered, it is demonstrated for the first time that the effect of the droplet diameter distribution of the different nozzle types on the amount of deposition spray drift can be evaluated by a single parameter, i.e., the volume fraction of droplets with a diameter smaller than 191 μm. The reduced order model can be solved more than 4 orders of magnitude faster than the comprehensive CFD model.     

A study of the total atmospheric sulfur dioxide load using ground-based measurements and the satellite derived Sulfur Dioxide Index

We present characteristics of the sulfur dioxide (SO₂) loading over Thessaloniki, Greece, and seven other selected sites around the world using SO₂ total column measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers together with satellite estimates of the Version 8 TOMS Sulfur Dioxide Index (SOI) over the same locations, retrieved from Nimbus 7 TOMS (1979–1993), Earth Probe TOMS (1996–2003) and OMI/Aura (2004–2006). Traditionally, the SOI has been used to quantify the SO₂ quantities emitted during great volcanic eruptions. Here, we investigate whether the SOI can give an indication of the total SO₂ load for areas and periods away from eruptive volcanic activity by studying its relative changes as a correlative measure to the SO₂ total column. We examined time series from Thessaloniki and another seven urban and non-urban stations, five in the European Union (Arosa, De Bilt, Hohenpeissenberg, Madrid, Rome) and two in India (Kodaikanal, New Delhi). Based on the Brewer data, Thessaloniki shows high SO₂ total columns for a European Union city but values are still low if compared to highly affected regions like those in India. For the time period 1983–2006 the SO₂ levels above Thessaloniki have generally decreased with a rate of 0.028 Dobson Units (DU) per annum, presumably due to the European Union's strict sulfur control policies. The seasonal variability of the SO₂ total column exhibits a double peak structure with two maxima, one during winter and the second during summer. The winter peak can be attributed to central heating while the summer peak is due to synoptic transport from sources west of the city and sources in the north of Greece. A moderate correlation was found between the seasonal levels of Brewer total SO₂ and SOI for Thessaloniki, Greece (R = 0.710–0.763) and Madrid, Spain (R = 0.691) which shows that under specific conditions the SOI might act as an indicator of the SO₂ total load.     

Influence of air mass source region on nanoparticle events and hygroscopicity in central Virginia,U.S.

During autumn, 2006, variation in the frequency of aerosol nucleation events, as inferred from nanoparticle growth events, and associated hygroscopicity were investigated as a function of air mass transport history at a mixed deciduous forest in central Virginia, U.S. Above-canopy size distributions of aerosols between 0.012 and 0.700 μm diameter, size-resolved particle hygroscopicity at eight dry diameters between 0.012 and 0.400 μm, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity were characterized. Air mass back trajectories were clustered to identify source regions. Growth events were most frequent in fast-moving air masses (mean = 9 m s^?1) that originated over the north central U.S. Under these flow regimes, mean values for preexisting sub-μm aerosol number concentrations (4700 cm^?3), corresponding surface area (142 μm² cm^?3), air temperature (6.2 °C), and relative humidity (RH, 49.4%) were relatively low compared to other regimes. Under stagnant flow conditions (mean = 3 m s^?1), mean number concentrations were higher (>6000 cm^?3) and size fractions <0.1 μm diameter exhibited enhanced hygroscopicity compared to other source regions. These results indicate that precursors emitted into relatively clean, cold, and dry air transported over the southeastern U.S. reacted to form condensable intermediates that subsequently produced new aerosols via nucleation and growth. This pathway was an important source for CCN. During events in October, nanoparticles were produced in greater numbers and grew more rapidly compared to November and December.     

Atmospheric chemistry of perfluorobutenes (CF3CFCFCF3 and CF3CF2CFCF2): Kinetics and mechanisms of reactions with OH radicals and chlorine atoms,IR spectra,global warming potentials,and oxidation to perfluorocarboxylic acids

Relative rate techniques were used to determine k(Cl + CF₃CFCFCF₃) = (7.27 ± 0.88) × 10^?12, k(Cl + CF₃CF₂CFCF₂) = (1.79 ± 0.41) × 10^?11, k(OH + CF₃CFCFCF₃) = (4.82 ± 1.15) × 10^?13, and k(OH + CF₃CF₂CFCF₂) = (1.94 ± 0.27) × 10^?12 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 in 700 Torr of air or N₂ diluent at 296 K. The chlorine atom- and OH radical-initiated oxidation of CF₃CFCFCF₃ in 700 Torr of air gives CF₃C(O)F in molar yields of 196 ± 11 and 218 ± 20%, respectively. Chlorine atom-initiated oxidation of CF₃CF₂CFCF₂ gives molar yields of 97 ± 9% CF₃CF₂C(O)F and 97 ± 9% COF₂. OH radical-initiated oxidation of CF₃CF₂CFCF₂ gives molar yields of 110 ± 15% CF₃CF₂C(O)F and 99 ± 8% COF₂. The atmospheric fate of CF₃CF₂C(O)F and CF₃C(O)F is hydrolysis to give CF₃CF₂C(O)OH and CF₃C(O)OH. The atmospheric lifetimes of CF₃CFCFCF₃ and CF₃CF₂CFCF₂ are determined by reaction with OH radicals and are approximately 24 and 6 days, respectively. The contribution of CF₃CFCFCF₃ and CF₃CF₂CFCF₂ to radiative forcing of climate change will be negligible.     

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in south-east Scotland: Quantification of the organic nitrogen fraction in wet,dry and bulk deposition

Water soluble organic nitrogen (WSON) compounds are ubiquitous in precipitation and in the planetary boundary layer, and therefore are a potential source of bioavailable reactive nitrogen. This paper examines weekly rain data over a period of 22 months from June 2005 to March 2007 collected in 2 types of rain collector (bulk deposition and “dry + wet” deposition) located in a semi-rural area 15 km southwest of Edinburgh, UK (N55°51′44″, W3°12′19″). Bulk deposition collectors are denoted in this paper as “standard rain gauges”, and they are the design used in the UK national network for monitoring precipitation composition. “Dry + wet” deposition collectors are flushing rain gauges and they are equipped with a rain detector (conductivity array), a spray nozzle, a 2-way valve and two independent bottles to collect funnel washings (dry deposition) and true wet deposition. On average, for the 27 weekly samples with 3 valid replicates for the 2 types of collectors, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) represented 23% of the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in bulk deposition. Dry deposition of particles and gas on the funnel surface, rather than rain, contributed over half of all N-containing species (inorganic and organic). Some discrepancies were found between bulk rain gauges and flushing rain gauges, for deposition of both TDN and DON, suggesting biological conversion and loss of inorganic N in the flushing samplers.