IFTCIP: An Integrated Optimization Model for Environmental Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval-fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained integer programming (IFTCIP) method is developed for supporting environmental management under uncertainty. The IFTCIP improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly incorporated within a general mixed integer linear programming framework. It has advantages in uncertainty reflection, policy investigation, risk assessment, and capacity-expansion analysis in comparison to the other optimization methods. Moreover, it can help examine the risk of violating system constraints and the associated consequences. The developed method is applied to the planning for facility expansion and waste-flow allocation within a municipal solid waste management system. Violations of capacity constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflects tradeoffs between the system cost and the constraint-violation risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for both binary and continuous variables have been generated under different risk levels. They are useful for generating desired decision alternatives with minimized system cost and constraint-violation risk under various environmental, economic, and system-reliability conditions. Generally, willingness to take a higher risk of constraint violation will guarantee a lower system cost; a strong desire to acquire a lower risk will run into a higher system cost.     

Modelling Temperature Trends in New Zealand

If global warming is accelerating, then one might expect temperatures for most stations to be accelerating and perhaps variability to be increasing. In this study, we examine 57 New Zealand temperature time series for evidence of non-linearity and changing variability. These correspond to time series for annual minima, annual means and annual maxima for 19 stations. Estimation is by an extended least-squares method. We find a surprising diversity of behaviour of these series – presumably reflecting their different geographic factors as well as series length. We give evidence of regions where temperatures are decreasing. For series where a linear trend is significant, it is downwards in about one third of the cases. This proportion was higher in the South Island, especially for series of minima. Where a non-linear trend is significant, temperatures are decelerating in about one half of the cases. The ratio of downward to upward trends is highest among annual maxima and South Island minima and smallest in annual means. Where a linear trend in the variability is significant, it is decreasing in 13 cases and increasing in 5 cases, although possibly this is partly due to poorer quality data last century. Where a non-linear trend in the variability is significant, variability is decelerating in about two thirds of the cases. The results are used to project upper and lower return levels of minima, means and maxima for each of the series to the year 2010.     

Origin and characterisation of microparticles in an ice core from the Central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

The scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive spectroscopic (SEM-EDS) study of selected samples from an ice core collected from Central Dronning Maud Land (CDML), East Antarctica, revealed several microparticles. They are mainly siliceous and carbonaceous particles and have distinct variations in their shape and composition. The morphology and major element chemistry of the particles suggest their origin from either volcanic eruptions or continental dust. The EDS analysis revealed that the volcanic particles are enriched in silica (average SiO2 62%), compared to the continental dust particle (average SiO2 56%). We found that the tephra relating to Agung (1963) and Karkatau (1883) volcanic eruptions, as recorded, in the ice core harbored microbial cells (both coocoid and rods). The occurrence of organic and inorganic particles which bear relation to volcanic eruption and continental dust implies significant environmental changes in the recent past.     

Risk assessment and distribution of soil Pb in Guangdong, China

In this study, the spatial distributions of soil lead (Pb) concentration in three horizontal soils in Guangdong, China, were surveyed and analyzed using geostatistics and geography information systems (GIS). Findings indicated that the Pb geometric mean concentration of 23.3 mg/kg in surface soils was found to be higher than those in global soils, which ranged from 2.3–235 mg/kg. In addition, the Pb geometric mean concentrations from A- to C-horizon were found to be 23.3, 27.2, and 28.6 mg/kg, respectively. The classification of a soil Pb environmental risk in an area was likewise presented based on the different levels of environmental quality of Pb and was done by GIS technology. Accordingly, there is a higher local concentration of Pb in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou where there is higher population density and in the north of Guangdong, which is a historic mining area. The results obtained by the environmental risk assessment reveal that about 46% of total surveyed area was above the background value, that is, 2.7% of the total area was at risk of pollution.     

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in pregnant diabetic patients

The efficacy of the insulin infusion pump (CSII) in pregnancy was examined in 12 diabetic patients and compared with intermittent insulin therapy (IIT). In patients poorly controlled on IIT constant and rapid equilibrium was achieved with CSII (mean of glucose levels: CSII versus IIT=84 versus 137 mg/dl; S.D. = 36 versus 63 mg/dl; mean amplitude of glycemic excursion (MAGE)=65 versus 112 mg/dl. In patients well controlled on IIT, CSII led to a reduction in the variation of glucose excursions (S.D.= 29 versus 36 mg/dl; MAGE=48 versus 76 mg/dl). CSII generally produced a reduction of 20–37 per cent of daily insulin dose (in three cases there was an increase of dose with the achievement of glycemic control). Furthermore in CSII treated-patients amniotic glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations werefound tobeinthenormalrange(22.1±10.1 mg/dl; 5.2±2.7μ/ml; 1.25±0.71 ng/ml, respectively). All infants were horn at or near-term, had no macrosomia or neonatal problems. It is concluded that CSII is a highly efficient way to achieve normal glucose levels in pregnancy, not only in type I, hut also in type II or gestational diabetes.     

Prenatal diagnosis of β thalassaemia by reverse phase HPLC

Reverse phase HPLC of radioactive globin chains has been compared to classical carboxy methyl cellulose chromatography for the prenatal diagnosis of β thalassaemia. The two methods correlated highly (r = 0.97 p < 0.0005) and provided an identical diagnosis for 40 fetal blood samples of fetuses homozygous or heterozygous for β thalassaemia. The HPLC procedure was much faster and required fewer biochemical steps (no globin preparation). It was at least as accurate and more sensitive than the classical chromatography. A single column can be used for 150 analyses and is always ready to be used. Last but not least it is much less expensive than CMC chromatography.     

The importance of chorionic villus sampling after first trimester diagnosis of cystic hygroma

The prenatal diagnosis of The Turner Syndrome is described at a menstrual age of 12 weeks. Detection of cystic hygroma was followed by vaginal chorionic villous sampling (CVS) which revealed a 45,X karyotype. Early documentation of fetal karyotype in the presence of a cystic hygroma is essential for accurate diagnosis and genetic counselling.     

Immediate prenatal diagnosis of Zellweger syndrome by direct measurement of very long chain fatty acids in chorionic villus cells

We report a gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric method which allows the very long chain fatty acids content of trophoblastic tissue to be directly measured in samples collected by biopsy between 8 and 11 weeks of gestation. This method has been successfully applied to the detection of fetal Zellweger syndrome in two pregnant women who had previously delivered affected infants. In one of them, increased concentrations of C26:0 (0.254 versus 0.108±0.035 μ/mg proteins) and C24:0 (1.32 versus 0.815±0.325 μ/mg proteins) in trophoblast indicated that the fetus had Zellweger syndrome, a diagnosis confirmed by pathological findings after abortion. In the second case, the pregnancy was allowed to proceed, on the basis of normal concentrations of very long chain fatty acids in trophoblastic tissue, and its outcome was actually a healthy newborn.