Living close, doing differently: small-scale asynchrony in demography of two species of seabirds

Studies on spatiotemporal pattern of population abundance predict that close populations should exhibit a high level of synchrony, reflected in a parallel time variation of at least one demographic parameter. We tested this prediction for two threatened species of Procellariiformes sharing similar life history traits: the European Storm Petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus) and the Balearic Shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus). Within each species, we compared adult survival, proportion of transients (breeders that do not settle), and average productivity at two neighboring colonies. Physical and environmental features (e.g., food availability) of the breeding sites were similar. However, while Balearic Shearwater colonies were free of predators, aerial predators occurred especially in one colony of the European Storm Petrel. Despite this difference, we found similar results for the two species. A high proportion of transient birds was detected in only one colony of each species, ranging between 0.00-0.38 and 0.10-0.63 for the petrels and shearwaters, respectively. This seems to be an emergent feature of spatially structured populations of seabirds, unrelated to colony size or predator pressure, that can have important demographic consequences for local population dynamics and their synchrony. Local survival of resident birds was different at each colony, an unexpected result, especially for predator-free colonies of Balearic Shearwater. Productivity varied between the two colonies of European Storm Petrels, but not between the two colonies of Balearic Shearwaters. We demonstrated that within each species, several demographic parameters were colony specific and sufficiently different to generate short-term asynchronous dynamics. Our findings suggest that, in spatially structured populations, local factors, such as predation or small-scale habitat features, or population factors, such as individual quality or age structure, can generate unexpected asynchrony between neighboring populations.     

Living in a ghetto within a local population: an empirical example of an ideal despotic distribution

Merging patterns and processes about the way individuals should be distributed in a habitat is a key issue in the framework of spatial ecology. Here the despotic distribution of individuals in two distinct and neighboring patches within a local population of a long-lived colonial bird, the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis), was assessed. There was no density dependence for suitable habitat at the study population, but behavioral data suggested that birds from the good patch precluded birds from the bad patch from breeding in their patch. Younger breeders were almost exclusively found in the bad patch, where individuals were probably attracted by conspecific attraction from the good patch. Most breeding parameters were lower in the bad patch, resulting mainly from a higher vulnerability to environmental perturbations and a higher rate of intraspecific nest predation. Attempts at breeding dispersal between the two patches were only observed from the bad to the good patch. Strikingly, adult survival and large-scale dispersal, two life history parameters that are very conservative in long-lived organisms, were also more affected at the bad patch when catastrophic predation occurred. The study was consistent with an ideal despotic distribution at small spatial scale, and suggests that individual behavior can influence local population dynamics.     

Effects of timber harvesting on pond-breeding amphibian persistence: testing the evacuation hypothesis.

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibians following timber harvest. However, direct evidence concerning the mechanisms of population decline is lacking and hinders attempts to develop conservation or recovery plans and solutions for forest species. We summarized the mechanisms by which abundance of amphibians may initially decline following timber harvest into three testable hypotheses: (1) mortality, (2) retreat, and (3) evacuation. Here, we tested the evacuation hypothesis within a large-scale, replicated experiment. We used drift fences with pitfall traps to capture pond-breeding amphibians moving out of experimental clearcut quadrants and into control quadrants at four replicate arrays located within the Daniel Boone Conservation Area on the upper Ozark Plateau in Warren County, Missouri, USA. During the preharvest year of 2004, only 51.6% of the 312 individuals captured were moving out of pre-clearcut quadrants, and movement did not differ from random. In contrast, during both postharvest years of 2005 and 2006, the number of captures along the quadrant edge increased, and a higher proportion of individuals (59.9% and 56.6%, respectively, by year) were moving out of clearcut quadrants than entering. Salamanders moved out of clearcuts in large percentages (Ambystoma annulatum, 78.2% in 2005, 78.2% in 2006; A. maculatum, 64.0% in 2005, 57.1% in 2006). Frogs and toads also moved out of clearcut quadrants, but in lower percentages (Bufo americanus, 59.6% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006; Rana clamitans, 52.7% in 2006). Salamanders moved out of clearcuts with low-wood treatments more than out of clearcuts with high-wood treatments. Movement of salamanders out of clearcuts was independent of sex. Estimated movement out of clearcuts represented between 8.7% and 35.0% of the total breeding adults captured for two species of salamanders. Although we recognize that some portion of the amphibian population may retreat underground for short periods and others may not survive the effects of timber harvest, these data are the first direct evidence showing that individuals are capable of leaving clearcuts and shifting habitat use.     

Forward selection of explanatory variables

This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra(2)) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, U.S.A.     

Tropical coastal habitats as surrogates of fish community structure, grazing, and fisheries value

Habitat maps are frequently invoked as surrogates of biodiversity to aid the design of networks of marine reserves. Maps are used to maximize habitat heterogeneity in reserves because this is likely to maximize the number of species protected. However, the technique's efficacy is limited by intra-habitat variability in the species present and their abundances. Although communities are expected to vary among patches of the same habitat, this variability is poorly documented and rarely incorporated into reserve planning. To examine intra-habitat variability in coral-reef fishes, we generated a data set from eight tropical coastal habitats and six islands in the Bahamian archipelago using underwater visual censuses. Firstly, we provide further support for habitat heterogeneity as a surrogate of biodiversity as each predefined habitat type supported a distinct assemblage of fishes. Intra-habitat variability in fish community structure at scales of hundreds of kilometers (among islands) was significant in at least 75% of the habitats studied, depending on whether presence/absence, density, or biomass data were used. Intra-habitat variability was positively correlated with the mean number of species in that habitat when density and biomass data were used. Such relationships provide a proxy for the assessment of intra-habitat variability when detailed quantitative data are scarce. Intra-habitat variability was examined in more detail for one habitat (forereefs visually dominated by Montastraea corals). Variability in community structure among islands was driven by small, demersal families (e.g., territorial pomacentrid and labrid fishes). Finally, we examined the ecological and economic significance of intra-habitat variability in fish assemblages on Montastraea reefs by identifying how this variability affects the composition and abundances of fishes in different functional groups, the key ecosystem process of parrotfish grazing, and the ecosystem service of value of commercially important finfish. There were significant differences in a range of functional groups and grazing, but not fisheries value. Variability at the scale of tens of kilometers (among reefs around an island) was less than that among islands. Caribbean marine reserves should be replicated at scales of hundreds of kilometers, particularly for species-rich habitats, to capture important intra-habitat variability in community structure, function, and an ecosystem process.     

Do yellow-bellied marmots respond to predator vocalizations?

We conducted four experiments to determine whether yellow-bellied marmots, Marmota flaviventris, discriminate among predator vocalizations, and if so, whether the recognition mechanism is learned or experience-independent. First, we broadcast to marmots the social sounds of coyotes, Canis latrans, wolves, Canis lupus, and golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos, as well as conspecific alarm calls. Coyotes and eagles are extant predators at our study site, while wolves have been absent since the mid-1930s. In three follow-up experiments, we reversed the eagle call and presented marmots with forward and reverse calls to control for response to general properties of call structure rather than those specifically associated with eagles, we tested for novelty by comparing responses to familiar and unfamiliar birds, and we tested for the duration of predator sounds by comparing a wolf howl (that was much longer than the coyote in the first experiment) with a long coyote howl of equal duration to the original wolf. Marmots suppressed foraging and increased looking most after presentation of the conspecific alarm call and least after that of the coyote in the first experiment, with moderate responses to wolf and eagle calls. Marmots responded more to the forward eagle call than the reverse call, a finding consistent with a recognition template. Marmots did not differentiate vocalizations from the novel and familiar birds, suggesting that novelty itself did not explain our results. Furthermore, marmots did not differentiate between a wolf howl and a coyote howl of equal duration, suggesting that the duration of the vocalizations played a role in the marmots’ response. Our results show that marmots may respond to predators based solely on acoustic stimuli. The response to currently novel wolf calls suggests that they have an experience-independent ability to identify certain predators acoustically. Marmots’ response to predator vocalizations is not unexpected because 25 of 30 species in which acoustic predator discrimination has been studied have a demonstrated ability to respond selectively to cues from their predators.     

When all life counts in conservation

Conservation science involves the collection and analysis of data. These scientific practices emerge from values that shape who and what is counted. Currently, conservation data are filtered through a value system that considers native life the only appropriate subject of conservation concern. We examined how trends in species richness, distribution, and threats change when all wildlife count by adding so-called non-native and feral populations to the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and local species richness assessments. We focused on vertebrate populations with founding members taken into and out of Australia by humans (i.e., migrants). We identified 87 immigrant and 47 emigrant vertebrate species. Formal conservation accounts underestimated global ranges by an average of 30% for immigrants and 7% for emigrants; immigrations surpassed extinctions in Australia by 52 species; migrants were disproportionately threatened (33% of immigrants and 29% of emigrants were threatened or decreasing in their native ranges); and incorporating migrant populations into risk assessments reduced global threat statuses for 15 of 18 species. Australian policies defined most immigrants as pests (76%), and conservation was the most commonly stated motivation for targeting these species in killing programs (37% of immigrants). Inclusive biodiversity data open space for dialogue on the ethical and empirical assumptions underlying conservation science.     

Characteristics that make trophy hunting of giant pandas inconceivable

In November 1928, Theodore Jr. and Kermit Roosevelt led an expedition to China with the expressed purpose of being the first Westerners to kill the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). The expedition lasted 8 months and resulted in the brothers shooting a giant panda in the mountains of Sichuan Province. Given the concurrent attention in the popular press describing this celebrated expedition, the giant panda was poised to be trophy hunted much like other large mammals around the world. Today, however, the killing of giant pandas, even for the generation of conservation revenue, is unthinkable for reasons related to the species itself and the context, in time and space, in which the species was popularized in the West. We found that the giant panda's status as a conservation symbol, exceptional charisma and gentle disposition, rarity, value as a nonconsumptive ecotourism attraction, and endemism are integral to the explanation of why the species is not trophy hunted. We compared these intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics with 20 of the most common trophy-hunted mammals to determine whether the principles applying to giant pandas are generalizable to other species. Although certain characteristics of the 20 trophy-hunted mammals aligned with the giant panda, many did not. Charisma, economic value, and endemism, in particular, were comparatively unique to the giant panda. Our analysis suggests that, at present, exceptional characteristics may be necessary for certain mammals to be excepted from trophy hunting. However, because discourse relating to the role of trophy hunting in supporting conservation outcomes is dynamic in both science and society, we suspect these valuations will also change in future.     

Using air quality modeling to study source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O₃) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and population exposure to ambient O₃ in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NO_x emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O₃ exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source–receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NO_x emissions from upwind states contribute more to O₃ exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O₃ exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NO_x emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O₃ exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O₃ exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NO_x is equal. In this study, the average O₃ exposures caused by one ton of NO_x emissions ranges from ? 2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NO_x emissions varies considerably over space.