Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

Matrix diffusion effects in the cleanup of heterogeneous aquifers

Simple mathematical models are developed to account for the rather slow mass transport of nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) into aqueous solution in groundwater during flushing operations. The models are based on the assumption that this bottleneck in the process is associated with diffusion in the aqueous phase in the porous medium from the location of the NAPL drops/ganglia in a region of relatively low permeability out into a region of substantially higher permeability, somewhat analogous to diffusion from a block of porous rock into a nearby fracture, where the fracture system overwhelmingly dominates the overall permeability. The models include batch flushing, flushing in a laboratory column, and a one-dimensional model for flushing by means of a single recovery well.     

Using Multiple Antibiotic Resistance and land use characteristics to determine sources of fecal coliform bacterial pollution

Multiple Antibiotic Resistance (MAR) analysis and regression modeling techniques were used to identify surface water areas impacted by fecal pollution from human sources, and to determine the effects of land use on fecal pollution in Murrells Inlet, a small, urbanized, high-salinity estuary located between Myrtle Beach and Georgetown, South Carolina. MAR analysis was performed to identify areas in the estuary that are impacted by human-source fecal pollution. Additionally, regression analysis was performed to determine if an association exists between land use and fecal coliform densities over the ten-year period from 1989 to 1998. Land-use variables were derived using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and were used in the regression analysis.MAR analyses were conducted by comparing the frequency and patterns of antibiotic resistance found in Escherichia coli isolates derived from surface water samples and from sewage sources in the Murrells Inlet sewage collection system. The MAR results suggest that the majority of the fecal pollution detected in the Murrells Inlet estuary may be from non-human sources, including fecal coliforms isolated from areas in close proximity to high densities of active septic tanks.A MAR Index, which measures the frequency of antibiotic resistance, was calculated for each of twenty-three water samples and nine sewage samples. The antibiotic resistance pattern comparisons were performed using cluster analysis. Although the MAR indices indicated that several surface water sites had potential human-source contamination, the cluster analysis suggests that only one sampling site had MAR patterns that were similar to those found in the sewage samples. This site was in close proximity to several large pleasure boats as well as a sewage collection system lift station, but was not near areas with active septic tanks. The results of the regression analysis also suggest that sewage sources and rainfall runoff from urbanized areas may contribute to fecal pollution in the estuary.     

Factors associated with multiple-pass procedures during chorionic villus sampling: A video analysis

Multiple placental passes during chorionic villus sampling (CVS) increase the risk of fetal loss; however, specific factors that predispose to repeat aspiration have not been delineated. To identify anatomic and technical variables associated with multiple-pass procedures, a detailed review of 205 videotaped CVS procedures (single pass = 163; multiple pass = 42) was performed, blinded to pregnancy outcome. The route of sampling did not influence the need for multiple aspiration attempts (transabdominal—30/ 135; transcervical—12/70), nor was placental location alone discriminatory. However, the combination of a posterior placenta and uterine retroversion was observed more frequently in the multiple-pass cohort (8/42 vs. 9/163; p<0.05). In transabdominal cases, suboptimal needle placement (e.g., perpendicular to the placental long axis) was more common in the initial aspiration of a multiple-pass procedure (21/30 vs. 38/105;p<0.01), while limited penetration of the catheter tip (e.g., just inside the placental edge) characterized a majority of multiple-pass cases in the transcervical subset (7/12 vs. 3/58; p<0.0001). A case-control cohort was constructed to evaluate the impact of these technical variables on sampling efficacy, independent of the influence of uterine position and placental site. In that analysis, suboptimal location and/or orientation of the sampling device remained characteristic of multiple-pass cases. We conclude that further reduction in the frequency of multiple-pass procedures might be achieved by consistent placement of the device tip in the central placental mass. Unlike amniocentesis, where any point of amnion entry will suffice, this technical nuance should be emphasized with CVS to maximize the single-pass success rate.     

Prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of Apert's syndrome

A mother affected with Apert's syndrome was diagnosed by ultrasound scan at 16–17 weeks to have a fetus similarly affected. The typical features of acrocephaly and symmetrical syndactyly were seen. This is probably the first time that this condition has been diagnosed at such a gestation by ultrasound scan. The patient decided to continue the pregnancy, and intrauterine death occurred at 34 weeks. The diagnosis was confirmed by pathological examination.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency by steroid analysis in the amniotic fluid of mid-pregnancy: Comparison with HLA typing in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH

Amniotic fluid (AF) levels of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) and testosterone (T) were determined at 16–17 weeks in 17 pregnancies at risk for CAH and results compared to 75 normal controls. The fetus was predicted to be unaffected in 12 cases on the findings of normal AF levels of both 17OHP and T and the latter allowed a correct prediction of fetal sex in all instances. HLA typing confirmed normality in 12 cases revealing 5 carriers, 5 homozygous normal and 2 indeterminate. Steroid levels of the 2 groups were similar. Three fetuses were predicted to be CAH affected on unambiguously high levels of 17OHP and T (in female only). HLA typing was in agreement, and the diagnosis was confirmed in 2 abortuses and a female newborn by physical and hormonal studies. In the last 2 cases AF levels of OHP and T were normal but HLA (A/B/C) genotypes were identical to the CAH affected siblings. Normal physical and hormonal findings in the 2 aborted fetuses would exclude the possibility of an in utero virilizing form of CAH. The discrepancy could be explained on the basis that the fetuses had an allelic form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency or on the basis of recombination (not fully tested). It is concluded that a fully informative prenatal diagnosis of CAH should not rely entirely on HLA typing but on hormonal studies.     

英国塘鹅蛋中多氯联苯同类物的时空变化趋势

1977～1998年间,在苏格兰西部的艾尔萨克雷格对收集到的塘鹅蛋中的多氯联苯(PCB)同类物进行了回顾性分析.对一些年份所收集的塘鹅蛋中每年选择8～10个对其PCB同类物浓度范围分别进行了分析.所有的同类物在几年之内浓度都降在低,但不同的同类物降解速率不同.     

Detection of low-grade mosaicism in fetal cells isolated from maternal blood

Recovering and analysing fetal erythrocytes from maternal blood is being pursued for non-invasive prenatal genetic diagnosis. We report the observation of 46, XY/47, XXY mosaicism in fetal cells from a woman whose first-trimester chorionic villus sampling (CVS) initially showed only 46, XY. Only after exhaustive (500 cells) analysis were four XXY cells found in cultured villi.     

Climate anomalies, Indonesian vegetation fires and terrestrial carbon emissions

There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO₂, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO₂ growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion.