Methodological and Practical Considerations for Developing Multiproject Baselines for Electric Power and Cement Industry Projects in Central America

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA) conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting. Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh (using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh. Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from 205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement.     

氯乙酰苯胺除草剂及其降解产物在肯尼亚Nzoia流域的演变

采用气相色谱法对肯尼亚沿Nzoia河9个地点的水样和沉积物样中草不绿(也称杂草锁)(α'-氯-N-(2,6-二乙基苯基)-N-(甲氧基甲基)乙酰胺)、甲氧毒草安(α-氯6'-乙基-N-(2甲氧基-1-甲基乙基)乙酰邻甲苯胺)及它们各自环境稳定的苯胺类降解物2,6-二乙基苯胺、2-乙基-6-甲基苯胺进行分析.降解物在90%以上的沉积物样和水样中检出,而母体化合物只在不到14%的水样中检出.沉积物中的杀虫剂和它们的降解物比在水中浓度高很多(1.4～10 800倍),显示出化合物在沉积物中的积累.在研究时间内沉积物中降解物的普遍存在意味着这些化合物的持续性.可以假定在热带气候为主的条件下,促使杀虫剂快速分解为环境稳定的降解物,从而在研究区域内使后者成为比其母体更重要的污染物.     

Does the cost of polygyny in house wrens include reduced male assistance in defending offspring?

Summary This study investigated whether reduced male aid in defending offspring potentially reduces the fitness of females choosing already-mated males in the house wren (Troglodytes aedon), a small, territorial songbird. Frozen snakes were placed at 23 nests of monogamously mated males and 12 secondary nests of bigamously mated males. All presentations were made during incubation stages of females attending focal nests. Snakes were placed at nests of secondary females when nests of their primary counterparts contained young 5–9 days old. Males are most attentive to primary nests during this period and should therefore be relatively inattentive to secondary mates and nests. Nevertheless, an equal proportion of monogamous and bigamous males discovered snakes within 15 min, and mean time to discovery, when discovery occurred, did not differ with nest status. Monogamous and bigamous males were also equally likely to attack snakes physically once discovered. Monogamous males appeared no more likely to discover snakes than bigamous males for two main reasons. First, although monogamous males were near focal nests (i.e., < 10 m) more often than bigamous males, monogamous males tended to stay out of view of nests for long periods. In contrast, bigamous males always went immediately to focal nests upon arriving in their vicinity. Second, about one-third of monogamous males in this study spent much of their time during trials at the far edges of their territories advertising for secondary mates. Our experiment suggests that reduced male aid in defending nests against small, diurnal predators probably does not contribute to the cost of polygyny in house wrens. Correspondence to: L.S. Johnson     

SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND IN THE ARROYO COLORADO RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The lower reaches of the Arroyo Colorado have historically failed to meet their use under subsection 303(b) of the U.S. Clean Water Act due to fecal coliform bacteria and low dissolved oxygen (DO). Fish kills, especially at the tidal confluence at the Port of Harlingen, Texas, have been reported. Oxygen demand from sediment (SOD) for a river typically has two states‐diffusion limited SOD (SOD) and potential SOD (pSOD), expressed when sediment is resuspended through increased flow or other disturbances. The objective of this research was to measure SOD in the Arroyo Colorado River in situ, estimate pSOD ex situ, and evaluate the relationship between SOD and the depositional environment. We measured SOD and pSOD in the Arroyo Colorado River at up to eight sites over three sampling events. We identified the sample sites based on a modified Rosgen geomorphic index for streambed stabilization. Sites with high sediment deposition potential had high SOD. The average values of SOD between sites were 0.62 g/m²/day (standard deviation 0.38 g/m²/day) and ranged from 0.13 to 1.2 g/m²/day. Potential SOD values ranged from as low as 19.2 to as high as 2,779 g/m³ sediment/ day. Potential SOD can serve as an indicator of the possible impact of SOD from resuspended sediment in stream systems.     

The Transit of 35SO4 2- and 3H2O Added In Situ to Soil in a Boreal Coniferous Forest

A solution containing ³⁵SO₄ ^2- and ³H₂O was applied to four plots (5 × 5 m) in a boreal coniferous forest in the Laflamme Lake watershed, Québec, under two contrasting conditions: in summer (plots 1 and 2), and on the snowpack before snowmelt (plots 3 and 4). The transit of both these tracers in the soil solution was then followed through a network of soil lysimeters located at different depths. Four months after the summer application, ³H₂O had infiltrated the whole soil profile at plot 1, while ³⁵SO₄ ^2- was only observed in the LFH and Bhf horizons. A ³⁵SO₄ ^2- budget calculated from mid-August to November indicated that 89 and 10.6% of the added ³⁵SO₄ ^2- was retained within the LFH and the Bhf layers, respectively. Fifteen months later, the added ³⁵SO₄ ^2- was distributed in the following proportions within the soil horizons: LFH (73.7%), Bhf (11.8%) and Bf (12.8%), for a total retention rate of 98.3%. The superficial penetration of ³H₂O at plot 2 was indicative of a major lateral water movement that prevented the calculation of a ³⁵SO₄ ^2- budget. This situation also was observed at plot 4 during snowmelt. At plot 3, ³H₂O moved freely through the soil profile and a significant fraction of the added ³⁵SO₄ ^2- reached the B horizons, where it was presumably adsorbed on aluminum (Al) and ferric (Fe) oxides. The ³⁵SO₄ ^2- budget for plot 3 from March to November indicated that 87% of the added ³⁵SO₄ ^2- was retained within the soil profile, with most being retained in the B horizons (LFH = 33.1%, Bhf = 33.1%, Bf = 20.8%). The contrasting retention patterns of ³⁵SO₄ ^2- within the soil profile following the summer addition and snowmelt likely was caused by the contrastingsoil temperatures and soil solution residence times within the differentsoil layers. The persistence of ³⁵SO₄ ^2- in the soil solution of the entire profile long after the initial tracer infiltration, and the relative temporal stability of specific activity of SO₄ ^2-, point to the establishment of an isotopic equilibrium between the added ³⁵SO₄ and the active S-containing reservoirs within a given soil horizon. Overall, the results clearly illustrate the very strong potential for ³⁵SO₄ ^2- retention and recycling in forest soils.     

Scaling and Mapping Regional Calculations of Soil Chemical Weathering Rates in Sweden

Weathering rates of base cations are crucial in critical load calculations and assessments of sustainable forestry. The weathering rate on a single site with detailed geological data can be modelled using the PROFILE model. For environmental assessments on a regional scale, the weathering rates for sites are scaled into regional maps. The step from sites to regional level requires focus on the spatial variation of weathering rates. In this paper, a method is presented by which weathering rates are calculated for 25589 Swedish sites with total elemental analysis for the soil. Based on a part of the results, a methodology for creating area covering maps by geostatistical analysis and kriging is described. A normative reconstruction model was used to transform total elemental analysis to mineralogy. Information from the Swedish Forest Inventory database and other databases were used to derive texture and other important information for the sites, e.g. climate, deposition and vegetation data. The calculated weathering rates show a regional pattern that indicates possibilities for interpolation of data in large parts of Sweden. Geostatistical analysis of an area in southern Sweden shows different properties for different base cations. Kriging was performed for potassium to demonstrate the method. It was concluded that different base cations and different regions have to be analysed separately, in order to optimise the kriging method.     

Application of the operating window concept to remediation‐option selection

An Erratum has been published for this article in Remediation 14(4) 2004, 141. The selection of remediation options for the management of unacceptable risks at contaminated sites is hindered by insufficient information on their performance under different site conditions. Therefore, there is a need to define “operating windows” for individual remediation options to summarize their performance under a variety of site conditions. The concept of the “operating window” has been applied as both a performance optimization tool and decision support tool in a number of different industries. Remediation‐option operating windows could be used as decision support tools during the “options appraisal” stage of the Model Procedures (CLR 11), proposed by the Environment Agency (EA) for England and Wales, to enhance the identification of “feasible remediation options” for “relevant pollutant linkages.” The development of remediation‐option operating windows involves: 1) the determination of relationships between site conditions (“critical variables”) and option performance parameters (e.g., contaminant degradation or removal rates) and 2) the identification of upper‐ and lower‐limit values (“operational limits”) for these variables that define the ranges of site conditions over which option performance is likely to be sufficient (the “operating window”) and insufficient (the “operating wall”) for managing risk. Some research has used case study data to determine relationships between critical variables and subsurface natural attenuation (NA) process rates. Despite the various challenges associated with the approach, these studies suggest that available case study data can be used to develop operating windows for monitored natural attenuation (MNA) and, indeed, other remediation options. It is envisaged that the development of remediation‐option operating windows will encourage the application of more innovative remediation options as opposed to excavation and disposal to landfill and/or on‐site containment, which remain the most commonly employed options in many countries. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Detecting the signal of atmospheric N deposition in recent national-scale vegetation change across Britain

Model estimates of NO_y and NH_x deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km². The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NH_x deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km² variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NO_y deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.