Simulation of soil loss processes based on rainfall runoff and the time factor of governance in the Jialing River Watershed,China

Jialing River is the largest tributary in the catchment area of Three Gorges Reservoir, and it is also one of the important areas of sediment yield in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In recent years, significant changes of water and sediment characteristics have taken place. The "Long Control" Project implemented since 1989 had greatly changed the surface appearance of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW), and it had made the environments of the watershed sediment yield and sediment transport change significantly. In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was selected and used to predict the annual average amount of soil erosion for the special water and sediment environments in the JRW after the implementation of the "Long Control" Project, and then the rainfall–runoff modulus and the time factor of governance were both considered as dynamic factors, the dynamic sediment transport model was built for soil erosion monitoring and forecasting based on the average sediment yield model. According to the dynamic model, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil erosion amount and sediment transport amount of the JRW from 1990 to 2007 was simulated using geographic information system (GIS) technology and space-grid algorithm. Simulation results showed that the average relative error of sediment transport was less than 10% except for the extreme hydrological year. The relationship between water and sediment from 1990 to 2007 showed that sediment interception effects of the soil and water conservation projects were obvious: the annual average sediment discharge reduced from 145.3 to 35 million tons, the decrement of sediment amount was about 111 million tons, and decreasing amplitude was 76%; the sediment concentration was also decreased from 2.01 to 0.578 kg/m³. These data are of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of sediment storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the particulate non-point source pollution load carried by sediment transport from watershed surface.     

Bioaccumulation surveillance in Milford Haven Waterway

Biomonitoring of contaminants (metals, organotins, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), PCBs) was undertaken in Milford Haven Waterway (MHW) and a reference site in the Tywi Estuary (St Ishmael/Ferryside) during 2007–2008. Bioindicator species encompassed various uptake routes—Fucus vesiculosus (dissolved contaminants); Littorina littorea (grazer); Mytilus edulis and Cerastoderma edule (suspension feeders); and Hediste (=Nereis) diversicolor (sediments). Differences in feeding and habitat preference have subtle implications for bioaccumulation trends though, with few exceptions, contaminant burdens in MHW were higher than the Tywi reference site, reflecting inputs. Elevated metal concentrations were observed at some MHW sites, whilst As and Se (molluscs and seaweed) were consistently at the higher end of the UK range. However, for most metals, distributions in MH biota were not exceptional. Several metal-species combinations indicated increases in bioavailability upstream, which may reflect the influence of geogenic/land-based sources—perhaps enhanced by lower salinity. TBT levels in MH mussels were below OSPAR toxicity thresholds and in the Tywi were close to zero. Phenyltins were not accumulated appreciably in M. edulis, whereas some H. diversicolor populations appear subjected to localized (historical) sources. PAHs in H. diversicolor were distributed evenly across most of MHW, although acenaphthene, fluoranthene, pyrene, benzo(a)anthracene and chrysene were highest at one site near the mouth; naphthalenes in H. diversicolor were enriched in the mid-upper Haven (a pattern seen in M. edulis for most PAHs). Whilst PAH (and PCB) concentrations in MH mussels were mostly above reference and OSPAR backgrounds, they are unlikely to exceed ecotoxicological thresholds. Bivalve Condition indices (CI) were highest at the Tywi reference site and at the seaward end of MH, decreasing upstream—giving rise to several significant (negative) relationships between CI and body burdens. Despite the possible influence of salinity gradient as a complicating factor, multivariate analysis indicated that a combination of contaminants could influence the pattern in condition (and the biomarkers metallothionein and TOSC). Integrating bioaccumulation data with biological and biochemical endpoints is seen as a useful way to discriminate environmental quality of moderately contaminated areas such as MHW and to prioritise cause and effect investigations.     

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Varying Relationships Between Rainfall,Land Cover and Surface Water Area Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R ² and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_C). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R ² and lower AIC_C. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.     

Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Evaluation of concentration efficiency of the Pseudomonas aeruginosa phage PP7 in various water matrixes by different methods

Enteric viruses monitoring in surface waters requires the concentration of viruses before detection assays. The aim of this study was to evaluate different methods in terms of recovery efficiencies of bacteriophage PP7 of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, measured by real-time PCR, using it as a viral control process in water analysis. Different nucleic acid extraction methods (silica–guanidinium thiocyanate, a commercial kit (Qiagen Viral RNA Kit) and phenol–chloroform with alcohol precipitation) exhibited very low recovery efficiencies (0.08–4.18 %), being the most efficient the commercial kit used for subsequent experiments. To evaluate the efficiency of three concentration methods, PBS (as model for clean water) and water samples from rivers were seeded to reach high (HC, 10⁶ pfu ml^?1) and low concentrations (LC, 10⁴ pfu ml^?1) of PP7. Tangential ultrafiltration proved to be more efficient (50.36?±?12.91, 17.21?±?9.22 and 12.58?±?2.35 % for HC in PBS and two river samples, respectively) than adsorption–elution with negatively charged membranes (1.00?±?1.34, 2.79?±?2.62 and 0.05?±?0.08 % for HC in PBS and two river samples, respectively) and polyethylene glycol precipitation (15.95?±?7.43, 4.01?±?1.12 and 3.91?±?0.54 %, for HC in PBS and two river samples, respectively), being 3.2–50.4 times more efficient than the others for PBS and 2.7–252 times for river samples. Efficiencies also depended on the initial virus concentration and aqueous matrixes composition. In consequence, the incorporation of an internal standard like PP7 along the process is useful as a control of the water concentration procedure, the nucleic acid extraction, the presence of inhibitors and the variability of the recovery among replicas, and for the calculation of the sample limit of detection. Thus, the use of a process control, as presented here, is crucial for the accurate quantification of viral contamination.     

Spatial distribution of metals within the liver acinus and their perturbation by PCB126

Animal studies show that exposure to the environmental pollutant 3,3′,4,4′,5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB126) causes alterations in hepatic metals as measured in acid-digested volume-adjusted tissue. These studies lack the detail of the spatial distribution within the liver. Here we use X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to assess the spatial distribution of trace elements within liver tissue. Liver samples from male Sprague Dawley rats, treated either with vehicle or PCB126, were formalin fixed and paraffin embedded. Serial sections were prepared for traditional H&E staining or placed on silicon nitride windows for XFM. With XFM, metal gradients between the portal triad and the central vein were seen, especially with copper and iron. These gradients change with exposure to PCB126, even reverse. This is the first report of how micronutrients vary spatially within the liver and how they change in response to toxicant exposure. In addition, high concentrations of zinc clusters were discovered in the extracellular space. PCB126 treatment did not affect their presence, but did alter their elemental makeup suggesting a more general biological function. Further work is needed to properly evaluate the gradients and their alterations as well as classify the zinc clusters to determine their role in liver function and zinc homeostasis.     

Long-term associations of morbidity with air pollution: A catalog and synthesis

I searched the National Institutes of Health MEDLINE database through January 2017 for long-term studies of morbidity and air pollution and cataloged them with respect to cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer, diabetes, hospitalization, neurological, and pregnancy-birth endpoints. The catalog is presented as an online appendix. Associations with PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm), PM₁₀ (PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) were evaluated most frequently among the 417 ambient air quality studies identified. Associations with total suspended particles (TSP), carbon, ozone, sulfur, vehicular traffic, radon, and indoor air quality were also reported. I evaluated each study in terms of pollutant significance (yes, no), duration of exposure, and publication date. I found statistically significant pollutant relationships (P < 0.05) in 224 studies; 220 studies indicated adverse effects. Among 795 individual pollutant effect estimates, 396 are statistically significant. Pollutant associations with cardiovascular indicators, lung function, respiratory symptoms, and low birth weight are more likely to be significant than with disease incidence, heart attacks, diabetes, or neurological endpoints. Elemental carbon (EC), traffic, and PM_2.5 are most likely to be significant for cardiovascular outcomes; TSP, EC, and ozone (O₃) for respiratory outcomes; NO₂ for neurological outcomes; and PM₁₀ for birth/pregnancy outcomes. Durations of exposure range from 60 days to 35 yr, but I found no consistent relationships with the likelihood of statistical significance. Respiratory studies began ca. 1975; studies of diabetes, cardiovascular, and neurological effects increased after about 2005. I found 72 studies of occupational air pollution exposures; 40 reported statistically significant adverse health effects, especially for respiratory conditions. I conclude that the aggregate of these studies supports the existence of nonlethal physiological effects of various pollutants, more so for non–life-threatening endpoints and for noncriteria pollutants (TSP, EC, PM_2.5 metals). However, most studies were cross-sectional analyses over limited time spans with no consideration of lag or disease latency. Further longitudinal studies are thus needed to investigate the progress of disease incidence in association with air pollution exposure.

Implications: Relationships of air pollution with excess mortality are better known than with long-term antecedent morbidity. I cataloged 489 studies of cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer, and neurological effects, diabetes, and birth outcomes with respect to 12 air pollutants. About half of the studies reported statistically significant relationships, more frequently with noncriteria than with criteria pollutants. Indoor and cumulative exposures, coarse or ultrafine particles, and organic carbon were seldom considered. Significant relationships were more likely with less-severe endpoints such as blood pressure, lung function, or respiratory symptoms than with incidence of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart failure, or diabetes. Most long-term studies are based on spatial relationships; longitudinal studies are needed to link the progression of pollution-related morbidity to mortality, especially for the cardiovascular system.     

Spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in events of El Niño-Southern Oscillation for Atlantic Forest biome,Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Monthly rainfall data were collected from 85 conventional meteorological stations (EMC), data from the Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2) and ENSO events (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) in the period from 2001 to 2013. Afterwards, state cluster analysis was performed using the results of non-parametric tests. The Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric test did not identify a trend pattern in rainfall distribution in the Atlantic Forest. The results for EVI2 by state and region showed that the trend is decreasing in the Northeast Region, except for the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco. Southeast region showed an increasing trend of EVI2 (except for Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo), while the South region showed a decreasing trend. In the Midwest, the trend was significantly decreasing. In the prognosis elaborated for the future, the regions with significant declines of the vegetation were the Northeast and Midwest. This study shows that the Atlantic Forest in some regions of Brazil has been suffering from the growing urbanization process and there is a trend of soil degradation.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Under what conditions do critical events trigger large-scale public discussion and mobilisation, and can these lead to policy change? In a comparative study of nuclear energy policy after the Japanese Fukushima disaster in March 2011, a theory-development approach is adopted, mobilising data collected from national news agencies’ newswires, public surveys, legislation and parliamentary databases, and newspaper editorials in 12 established democracies between March 2011 and March 2013. The analysis suggests two main hypotheses that can guide future research: critical events are more likely to trigger policy change when intense (contentious) mobilisation from policy challengers aligns with the views of the general public, and is backed by major political allies; and critical events are more likely to trigger intense (contentious) mobilisation when policy challengers articulate their opposition around pre-existing policy debates on the issue and resort to pre-existing organisational and mobilisation resources.