INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.     

BENEFITS OF TRANSFERRING STREAMFLOW PRIORITY FROM AGRICULTURAL TO NON-AGRICULTURAL USE1

ABSTRACT: In Virginia, as in many states, priority to streamflow is held by riparian landowners who are predominantly agricultural users. The streamfiow may also have a high potential value to non-agricultural users who do not have riparian rights. The potential benefits of transferring streamfiow priority rights from agricultural to non-agricultural use were evaluated using simulation for an eastern Virginia watershed. Lowering irrigators' priority to streamflow reduced crop yields and irrigated returns in some years because of inadequate water supplies. However, the transfer of priorities increased the likelihood that the urban reservoir would be able to withdraw water from the stream without interruption. As a result, priority trades reduced the size of reservoir needed to meet a given water requirement by municipal users. The resulting savings in reservoir construction and maintenance costs more than offset the losses to irrigators. Net savings could be achieved even if the reservoir were required to release water periodically to maintain a minimum level of instream flow. The conclusion is that the state should encourage trading of access to streamflow in order to increase the use efficiency of streamfiows. Alternative means by which the state can facilitate water exchanges are discussed.     

A comparative analysis between temperature and pressure measurements for early detection of runaway initiation

In this work, we have analysed the use of pressure instead of temperature measurements for the early warning detection of runaway initiation. This is possible due to the fact that our runaway criterion, i.e. div>0, does not depend specifically on which state space variable we are using for divergence calculation. A series of runaway experiments, carried out in a 250 l pilot-scale reactor, has been used to compare the results. In accordance with previous analysis, we show that by using temperature, early detection of runaway initiation is achieved. Analogously to temperature, pressure may be also used for runaway detection. By comparing the different types of reactive systems analysed (vapour and gassy), it can be observed that temperature works better, in terms of earlier detection, than pressure but the differences are more pronounced for vapour than for gassy systems.     

A STOCHASTIC MODEL TO EVALUATE RIPARIAN IRRIGATION EXPANSION IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation has expanded in parts of the eastern United States. In some areas, the adjoining surface (riparian) water is the most economical source of irrigation water. Expanded demand for riparian water may lead to conflict among irrigators and other streamflow users. Accurate information on the potential for and impacts of riparian irrigation expansion is needed to decide if control of such expansion is necessary. In this study, a stochastic economic model to evaluate the impacts of potential irrigation expansion is presented. The model considers the soil, location, and land use characteristics of individual sites, as well as weather and streamflow patterns. The application of the model to an eastern Virginia watershed indicates that, with maximum potential expansion, water availability becomes limited and yields will be reduced in some years. As a result, the expected net returns from irrigation and the probability of breaking even on the investment are reduced substantially. The results suggest the need to consider regulation of surface water allocation for irrigation development in riparian watersheds.     

Sensitivity of Simulated Conservation Practice Effectiveness to Representation of Field and In-Stream Processes in the Little River Watershed

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation practices (CPs) is an important step to achieving efficient and successful water quality management. Watershed-scale simulation models can provide useful and convenient tools for this evaluation, but simulated conservation practice effectiveness should be responsive to parameter values used to represent the practices in the modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the impacts of a set of conservation practices on hydrology and water quality of a watershed and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling outputs and simulated conservation practice effectiveness to parameters. The modeling study was conducted in an agricultural watershed, the subwatershed K (16.9 km²) of the Little River Experimental watershed located in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the USA. Sensitivity analysis showed that hydrologic response unit (HRU) and watershed-scale simulations for water quality were most sensitive to CN and FILTERW parameters. Load reduction rates as a function of increased aerial coverage of the conservation practices were greatest for total phosphorus (TP), followed by sediment and total nitrogen (TN). The results indicated that conservation practices would have a limited impact on stream flow volume but could have a significant impact on sediment and TP loads within this region. Watershed-scale TN and TP loads were also sensitive to an in-stream nutrient transformation process represented using the QUAL2E algorithm in SWAT. The study clearly demonstrated the most sensitive model parameters and the optimal conservation practices for this watershed.     

Atrazine Transport Within a Coastal Zone in Southeastern Puerto Rico: a Sensitivity Analysis of an Agricultural Field Model and Riparian Zone Management Model

Agrichemical runoff from farmland may adversely impact coastal water quality. Two models, the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) and the Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM), were used to evaluate the movement of the herbicide atrazine to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve from adjacent fields. The reserve is located on Puerto Rico’s southeast coast. Edge-of-field atrazine outputs simulated with the APEX were routed through a grass-forest buffer using the REMM. Atrazine DT₅₀ (half-life) values measured in both field and buffer soils indicated that accelerated degradation conditions had developed in the field soil due to repeated atrazine application. APEX simulations examined both the measured field and buffer soil atrazine DT₅₀ and the model’s default value. The use of the measured field soil atrazine degradation rate in the APEX resulted in 33 % lower atrazine transport from the field. REMM simulations indicated that the buffer system had the potential to reduce dissolved atrazine transport in surface runoff by 77 % during non-tropical storm events by increasing infiltration, slowing transport, and increasing time for pesticide degradation. During a large runoff event due to a tropical storm that occurred close to the time of an atrazine application, the REMM simulated only a 37 % reduction in atrazine transport. The results indicate that large storm events soon after herbicide application likely dominate herbicide transport to coastal waters in the region. These results agree with water quality measurements in the reserve. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of these models to variations in DT₅₀ values in evaluating atrazine fate and transport in the region and emphasizes that the use of measured DT₅₀ values can improve model accuracy.     

Fighting without weaponry: a review of male-male contest competition in butterflies

The males of many butterfly species compete via pair-wise intrasexual contests, yet lack any obvious morphological traits conventionally associated with animal aggression. The evolution of contest behavior in this group is therefore interesting because the means by which individuals are able to inflict costs upon each other during combat are unclear. Here we review the relevant empirical information within a game-theoretical context in order to analyze contest-related costs and mechanisms of dispute settlement. Territorial butterfly contests carry obvious role asymmetries, and individuals in the 'resident' role are more likely to win across all studied species. We use this phenomenon as a framework for gaining further insight into the evolution of contest settlement in this group. Four principal hypotheses are evaluated: (1) that residency is used as an arbitrary convention, (2) that residents stand to gain a greater payoff if successful, (3) that residency bestows higher resource-holding potential (RHP) on males in that role, and (4) that residents are males of intrinsically higher RHP. We found most support for the latter explanation (the 'superior-competitor' hypothesis), partly because the alternatives require a restrictive set of ecological conditions, but also due to positive support for the idea of intrinsic RHP. The strongest evidence is provided by species in which repeated interactions (between the same individuals) always have the same outcome, regardless of changes in residency status. However, we also found a consistent effect on contest duration due to apparent 'confusion over residency,' which suggests a conventional element to contest behavior. Although butterfly contests must be costly in some way, the literature provides limited insight into how costs accrue, and hence the determinants of contest RHP remain obscure. We suggest that careful experimentation, using 'natural' manipulations where possible, should prove most beneficial in identifying costs and exploring schedules of contest settlement in this group. Moreover, future investigations should be sensitive to the fact that butterfly territoriality and associated male-male interactions are seated within a broader ecological and life-historical context.     

Passive sampler for PM10-2.5 aerosol

This study investigates the use of a small passive sampler for aerosol particles to determine particulate matter (PM)10-2.5 concentrations in outdoor air. The passive sampler collects particles by gravity, diffusion, and convective diffusion onto a glass coverslip that is then examined with an optical microscope; digital images are processed with free software and the resultant PM10-2.5 concentrations determined. Both the samplers and the analyses are relatively inexpensive. Passive samplers were collocated with Federal Reference Method (FRM) samplers in Chapel Hill, NC; Phoenix, AZ; and Birmingham, AL; for periods from 5 to 15 days. Particles consisted primarily of inorganic dusts at some sites and a mix of industrial and inorganic materials at other sites. Measured concentrations ranged from < 10 microg/m3 to approximately 40 microg/m3. Overall, PM10-2.5 concentrations measured with the passive samplers were within approximately 1 standard deviation of concentrations measured with the FRM samplers. Concentrations determined with passive samplers depend on assumptions about particle density and shape factors and may also depend somewhat on local wind speed and turbulence; accurate values for these parameters may not be known. The degree of agreement between passive and FRM concentrations measured here suggests that passive measurements may not be overly dependent on accurate knowledge of these parameters.     

A re-examination of ambient air ozone monitor interferences

Attaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3) could cost billions of dollars nationwide. Attainment of the NAAQS is judged on O3 measurements made by the Federal Reference Method (FRM), ethylene chemiluminescence, or a Federal Equivalent Method (FEM), predominantly ultraviolet (UV) absorption. Starting in the 1980s, FRM monitors were replaced by FEMs so that today virtually all monitoring in the United States uses the UV methodology. This report summarizes a laboratory and collocated ambient air monitoring study of interferences in O3 monitors. Potential interferences examined in the laboratory included water vapor, mercury, o-nitrophenol, naphthalene, p-tolualdehyde, and mixed reaction products from smog chamber simulations of urban atmospheric photochemistry. UV absorption O3 monitors modified for humidity equilibration were also collocated with UV FEM O3 monitors at six sites in Houston, TX, during the 2007 summer O3 season. The results suggest that humidity and interfering species can positively bias (overestimate) O3 measured by FEM monitors used to determine compliance with the O3 standards. The results also suggest that humidity equilibration can mitigate this bias.