Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Future landfill emissions and the effect of final cover installation--a case study

Municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills are potential long-term sources of emissions. Hence, they need to be managed after closure until they do not pose a threat to humans or the environment. The case study on the Breitenau MSW landfill was performed to evaluate future emission levels for this site and to illustrate the effect of final cover installation with respect to long-term environmental risks. The methodology was based on a comprehensive assessment of the state of the landfill and included analysis of monitoring data, investigations of landfilled waste, and an evaluation of containment systems. A model to estimate future emission levels was established and site-specific predictions of leachate emissions were presented based on scenario analysis. The results are used to evaluate the future pollution potential of the landfill and to compare different aftercare concepts in view of long-term emissions. As some leachable substances became available for water flow during cover construction due to a change in the water flow pattern of the waste, a substantial increase in leachate concentrations could be observed at the site (e.g. concentrations of chloride increased from 200 to 800 mg/l and of ammonia-nitrogen from 140 to about 500 mg/l). A period of intensive flushing before the final cover installation could have reduced the amount of leachable substances within the landfill body and rapidly decreased the leachate concentrations to 11 mg Cl/l and 79 mg NH₄-N/l within 50 years. Contrarily, the minimization of water infiltration is associated with leachate concentrations in a high range for centuries (above 400 mg Cl/l and 200 mg NH₄-N/l) with low concomitant annual emission loads (below 12 kg/year of Cl or 9 kg/year of NH₄-N, respectively). However, an expected gradual decrease of barrier efficiency over time would be associated with higher emission loads of 50 kg of chloride and 30 kg of ammonia-nitrogen at the maximum, but a faster decrease of leachate concentration levels.     

Interinstrument comparison of remote-sensing devices and a new method for calculating on-road nitrogen oxides emissions and validation of vehicle-specific power

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by vehicles in real driving environments are only partially understood. This has been brought to the attention of the world with recent revelations of the cheating of the type of approval tests exposed in the dieselgate scandal. Remote-sensing devices offer investigators an opportunity to directly measure in situ real driving emissions of tens of thousands of vehicles. Remote-sensing NO₂ measurements are not as widely available as would be desirable. The aim of this study is to improve the ability of investigators to estimate the NO₂ emissions and to improve the confidence of the total NOx results calculated from standard remote-sensing device (RSD) measurements. The accuracy of the RSD speed and acceleration module was also validated using state-of-the-art onboard global positioning system (GPS) tracking. Two RSDs used in roadside vehicle emissions surveys were tested side by side under off-carriageway conditions away from transient pollution sources to ascertain the consistency of their measurements. The speed correlation was consistent across the range of measurements at 95% confidence and the acceleration correlation was consistent at 95% confidence intervals for all but the most extreme acceleration cases. VSP was consistent at 95% confidence across all measurements except for those at VSP ≥ 15 kW t^?1, which show a small underestimate. The controlled distribution gas nitric oxide measurements follow a normal distribution with 2σ equal to 18.9% of the mean, compared to 15% observed during factory calibration indicative of additional error introduced into the system. Systematic errors of +84 ppm were observed but within the tolerance of the control gas. Interinstrument correlation was performed, with the relationship between the FEAT and the RSD4600 being linear with a gradient of 0.93 and an R² of 0.85, indicating good correlation. A new method to calculate NOx emissions using fractional NO₂ combined with NO measurements made by the RSD4600 was constructed, validated, and shown to be more accurate than previous methods.

Implications: Synchronized remote-sensing measurements of NO were taken using two different remote-sensing devices in an off-road study. It was found that the measurements taken by both instruments were well correlated. Fractional NO₂ measurements from a prior study, measurable on only one device, were used to create new NO_x emission factors for the device that could not be measured by the second device. These estimates were validated against direct measurement of total NO_x emission factors and shown to be an improvement on previous methodologies. Validation of vehicle-specific power was performed with good correlation observed.     

The toxicity of pyrene in the fish : Synergism by piperonyl butoxide and by ultraviolet light

A saturated solution of pyrene in water was not toxic to the fish , even in the presence of ultraviolet light. A survival curve possessing one minimum, and therefore defining two LC₅₀ values, was obtained when fish placed in water containing increasing amounts of a pyrene solution in dimethylsulfoxide were exposed to ultraviolet light after a short incubation period. The phototoxicity was linked to the presence of undissolved pyrene. A normal survival curve with only one LC₅₀ value was found when pyrene was solubilized with the surfactant Tween-20. Practically no phototoxicity was produced when the pyrene mixtures were filtered before use, or when a saturated aqueous solution of pyrene was used. Piperonyl butoxide, present at a concentration where it was not toxic, synergized the toxicity of pyrene . The environmental significance of this observation may be considerable.     

Exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls from an overheated transformer

A Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) containing transformer released approximately 50 gallons of askarel oil. No polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) or polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDD) were detected in a sample of the askarel (analytical limit of detection of 40 parts per billion per isomer group). Skin irritation, unusual tiredness, and headaches occurred in approximately 20% of the individuals at the scene of the incident. Serum PCB levels, and mean values for blood and urine tests were within normal ranges.     

Characterization of trace organic contaminants in marine sediment from Yeongil Bay, Korea: 2. Dioxin-like and estrogenic activities

This study employed mechanism-specific in vitro bioassays to help characterize the occurrence and distribution of dioxin-like and estrogenic contaminants in sediment from Yeongil Bay, Korea. Approximately 85% of the sediments tested induced significant dioxin-like activity in the H4IIE-luc bioassay, while approximately 50% induced significant estrogenic activity in the MVLN bioassay. Instrumentally-derived estimates of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and 17beta-estradiol equivalents tended to underestimate the magnitude of response observed in the bioassays, suggesting that compounds detected by chemical analysis did not account for all the activity associated with Yeongil Bay sediments, or that non-additive interactions were occurring. The greatest dioxin-like and estrogenic activity was associated with the mid-polarity Florisil fractions (F2) expected to contain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as well as chlorinated dioxins and furans. As in previous studies of Korean coastal sediment, more polar fractions (F3) generated more modest responses both in terms of magnitude and the number of samples responding.     

Growth kinetics and competition between Methanosarcina and Methanosaeta in mesophilic anaerobic digestion.

Methanosarcina species with a high maximum specific growth rate (mumax) and high half-saturation coefficient (KS) and Methanosaeta species with a low mumax and low KS are the only known aceticlastic methanogens. Because of Methanosaeta's low KS, the low acetate concentrations in conventional, mesophilic anaerobic digestion yield Methanosaeta dominance. However, Methanosarcina absorbs increases in acetate more efficiently and thus promotes more stable digestion. This paper tests the hypothesis that decreasing digester feeding frequencies can increase Methanosarcina predominance. Two acetate-fed reactors were established at a 17-day solids retention time. One reactor was fed hourly, and one was fed once daily. Microscopic and molecular methods were used to verify that the hourly fed reactor enriched for Methanosaeta, while the daily fed reactor enriched for Methanosarcina. Growth and substrate-use kinetics were measured for each reactor. A digester overload condition was simulated, and the Methanosarcina-enriched reactor was found to perform better than the Methanosaeta-enriched reactor. These findings indicate that Methanosarcina dominance can be achieved with infrequent feedings, leading to more stable digestion.     

Quality assured measurements of animal building emissions: gas concentrations

Comprehensive field studies were initiated in 2002 to measure emissions of ammonia (NH3), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), particulate matter <10 microm in diameter, and total suspended particulate from swine and poultry production buildings in the United States. This paper focuses on the quasicontinuous gas concentration measurement at multiple locations among paired barns in seven states. Documented principles, used in air pollution monitoring at industrial sources, were applied in developing quality assurance (QA) project plans for these studies. Air was sampled from multiple locations with each gas analyzed with one high quality commercial gas analyzer that was located in an environmentally controlled on-farm instrument shelter. A nominal 4 L/min gas sampling system was designed and constructed with Teflon wetted surfaces, bypass pumping, and sample line flow and pressure sensors. Three-way solenoids were used to automatically switch between multiple gas sampling lines with > or =10 min sampling intervals. Inside and outside gas sampling probes were between 10 and 115 m away from the analyzers. Analyzers used chemiluminescence, fluorescence, photoacoustic infrared, and photoionization detectors for NH3, H2S, CO2, CH4, and NMHC, respectively. Data were collected using personal computer-based data acquisition hardware and software. This paper discusses the methodology of gas concentration measurements and the unique challenges that livestock barns pose for achieving desired accuracy and precision, data representativeness, comparability and completeness, and instrument calibration and maintenance.