Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

Monthly anomalies of stormy wind–wave heights and return periods are evaluated using secular routine observations in the coastal zone of the northern Black Sea. It is shown that wind–wave anomalies in this region are characterized by high-amplitude quasi-periodical variability with typical timescale of about 50 years. This timescale is determined by temporal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and coincides with periodicity of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Atmospheric re-analysis data show that cyclonic activity over the Black Sea basin intensifies when North Atlantic is relatively cold and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are more frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region. This leads to generation of more frequent Black Sea storm events and enhanced recurrence of extreme waves and results in profound (and mostly negative) environmental consequences. When North Atlantic is relatively warm and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are less frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region, environmental conditions in the Black Sea region are calmer. Thus, statistics of dangerous events can be wrongly estimated even if relatively long-term (~30 years) time series are considered and interdecadal variability of wind–wave anomalies must be taken into account when the risk assessment is accomplished.     

Once there was a river: a benefit–cost analysis of rehabilitation of the Jordan River

The Jordan River is among the world’s most famous and culturally and historically significant waterways. The lower stretch of the river, however, has been a victim of development in a water scarce region, with current flows less than 5 % of historical levels. Furthermore, as it functions as an international border in a region of conflict, access to the river and its potential as a tourist attraction has been limited. Recently, there have been numerous calls for rehabilitation of the river. This study presents a first estimate of the economic benefits of such rehabilitation and compares them to the estimated costs. Identical contingent valuation method surveys were administered in Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. Evidence from this study shows that, despite the large opportunity costs of increasing environmental flows, rehabilitation of the lower Jordan would produce positive net economic benefits. This is true even though the study estimated only the benefits to local populations, and not to international tourists or those outside the region. Net benefits are maximized when taking a regional, as opposed to strictly national, approach.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Revisions to the derivation of the Australian and New Zealand guidelines for toxicants in fresh and marine waters

The Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality are a key document in the Australian National Water Quality Management Strategy. These guidelines released in 2000 are currently being reviewed and updated. The revision is being co-ordinated by the Australian Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, while technical matters are dealt with by a series of Working Groups. The revision will be evolutionary in nature reflecting the latest scientific developments and a range of stakeholder desires. Key changes will be: increasing the types and sources of data that can be used; working collaboratively with industry to permit the use of commercial-in-confidence data; increasing the minimum data requirements; including a measure of the uncertainty of the trigger value; improving the software used to calculate trigger values; increasing the rigour of site-specific trigger values; improving the method for assessing the reliability of the trigger values; and providing guidance of measures of toxicity and toxicological endpoints that may, in the near future, be appropriate for trigger value derivation. These changes will markedly improve the number and quality of the trigger values that can be derived and will increase end-users’ ability to understand and implement the guidelines in a scientifically rigorous manner.     

Marine organisms as heavy metal bioindicators in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman

In the present study, cadmium and lead concentrations were compared in barnacles, ghost shrimps, polychaetes, bivalves, and sediment from ten different locations along the intertidal zone of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The results revealed significant differences in the heavy metal concentrations between the organisms with barnacles showing, by far, the highest metal concentrations. The bioaccumulation factor of Cd in different animals follows this pattern with barnacles?>?bivalves?>?polychaetes?>?ghost shrimps, while the pattern for Pb was barnacles?>?polychaetes?>?bivalves?>?ghost shrimps. In most of the stations, sediments showed the lowest lead and cadmium concentrations. Therefore, it is concluded that barnacles with Pb concentrations between 0.17 and 2,016.1 μg/g and Cd concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 147.1 μg/g are the best organisms to be employed in monitoring programs designed to assess pollution with bioavailable metals in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.     

On characteristics of the brown rat,Rattus norvegicus Berk. (1769), in the meadow steppes of the Elbrus variant in the Central Caucasus

The blood system parameters (erythropoiesis in bone marrow, peripheral blood) of brown rat have been studied for the first time in the foothills of the Central Caucasus. Several species-specific features of these parameters have been revealed that distinguishing the brown rat from other representatives of the family Muridae.     

Seasonal ecophysiology of an endangered coastal species,the yellow-horned poppy (Glaucium flavum Crantz)

Glaucium flavum Crantz. is a short-lived perennial herb distributed in coastal zones from the Black Sea to southern, western and north-western Europe. Despite its diminishing area of distribution and potential pharmacological value, little is known about the ecophysiological features of this coastal species. We investigated the photosynthetic performance of G. flavum by measuring gas exchange, chlorophyll fluorescence, photosynthetic pigment concentration and leaf water content over the space of a year in a coastal habitat of SW Spain. We also measured the variation in total concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur, potassium, calcium and magnesium, in the leaves and soil, throughout the study period. G. flavum showed a high resistance to summer drought conditions which appeared to be due to the high degree of stomatal control. The potential photochemical efficiency of photosystem II showed minimum values during the winter, indicating that low temperatures can produce negative effects within the photosynthetic apparatus. However, the marked decline in net photosynthesis during the winter seems to be mainly related to a loss of metabolic activity. Although leaf nutrient concentrations were, in general, within the normal ranges, phosphorus availability seems to be limited by the high calcium concentrations detected in the soil of the study site. Our study points out the efficiency of the different physiological adaptations of this rare and endangered coastal species in coping with the strong seasonal variability of the Mediterranean climate.     

Ecology of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in the Altai mountain glacial basins

Data are presented on the ecology of Siberian stone pine and Siberian larch in recent Altai mountain glacial basins at elevations above 2100 m a.s.l. The representative example of the Aktru basin is used to demonstrate the ranges of tolerance of these tree species to a series of ecological factors.