Threshold and dose response estimation using the “filter model”

The “filter model” has been developed to explain the biologic effects of radiation and chemicals. We have examined nearly 300 sets of dose response data, of which 50 are presented here. Responses (induced by radiation and chemicals) which have been examined include in vitro survival studies on animal and plant tissues, induction of cellular aberrations and time to tumor or death. Similar data from in vivo studies has also been examined. All of the data appear to fit the model R = a lnD + b(lnD)² + c, where R is the response, a and b are parameters fitted by regression to a particular set of data, and c is the response at zero (or lowest) dose. By writing this model in exponential form, it can be seen that the response R results from multistage filtering (by net amounts a and b) of the initial dose, D. The threshold is obtained from this model as the point, $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}$, at which the second derivative becomes zero. This is given by $\text{D}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{T}}\text{=}\text{exp}\text{(1 ?}\text{a}\text{2b}\text{)}$ when a and b are oppositelt signed.     

WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

International competitive displacement from environmental control The quantitative gains from methodological refinement

This paper demonstrates empirically the gain from adopting more general equilibrium approaches in projecting the effects on domestic output and international trade of environmental controls. The suggested models include a partial equilibrium case where all industries are treated independently, an intermediate case incorporating effects in supplying industries, and general equilibrium formulations based on alternative macroeconomic conditions. U. S. data is used to evaluate these models. Under both pollutor pays and subsidy financing schemes, moving from the simplest case to the intermediate model results in quite different industry projections. Including macroeconomic factors appears particularly important in the classical setting.     

Engaging Economic Development Agencies in Environmental Protection: the case for embedded autonomy

This article examines the role of economic development agencies in strengthening the environmental performance of industry within rapidly industrialising East Asian economies. Three case-study examples are considered, namely, the role of the Industrial Development Board in reducing industrial pollution in Taiwan, pollution control in the palm oil industry in Malaysia, and the role of the Economic Development Board in influencing environmental performance of industry in Singapore. The concept of embedded autonomy is developed to consider the ways in which agencies of economic development can work with firms and industries while simultaneously remaining autonomous from these firms with respect to setting and enforcing performance standards. The three cases suggest that a form of policy integration that more directly integrates economic and environmental goals within agencies of economic development may be feasible, but only where there exists a strong autonomous government bureaucracy and where there is strong societal commitment to improving the environmental performance of industry.     

Comparing EQM practices of small and large companies

There is some concern in the environmental quality management (EQM) community that small and mid-sized companies do not have the technical, economic, and personnel resources or expertise to carry out significant programs of pollution prevention or waste reduction in the way that large corporations do. Thus, a very significant proportion of the economy may not be contributing to or benefiting from EQM approaches. This article begins to clarify what small and mid-sized companies that are committed to EQM can actually do and how this compares with the efforts of larger plants or plants operated as part of large multiplant corporations.     

The GaNE programme in a global perspective

This paper provides the background to this special issue, outlining the extent to which the global atmospheric nitrogen cycle has been modified by human activity and outlining the range of effects. The global total emissions of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, amount to 124 Tg N, and exceed those from natural sources (34 Tg N) by almost a factor of four showing the extent to which anthropogenic activity has taken over the global N cycle. Of the 124 Tg N, 70 Tg N is emitted in the oxidized form, largely as NO and 70% of which results directly from anthropogenic activity. The remaining 54 Tg N is emitted as NH₃, (66% anthropogenic). The enhanced nitrogen emissions are associated with a range of local, regional and global issues including, acidification, eutrophication, climate change, human health and tropospheric O₃. The paper also places the Global Nitrogen Enrichment (GaNE) research programme in the UK in a wider perspective.     

Nitrous Oxide in Agricultural Drainage Waters Following Field Fertilisation

Dissolved nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrate (NO₃ ^-), and ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) concentrations in an agricultural field drain were intensively measured over the period of field nitrogen (N) fertilisation and for several weeks thereafter. Supersaturations of dissolved N₂O were observed in field drain waters throughout the study. On entry to an open drainage ditch, concentrations of dissolved N₂O rapidly decreased and a total N₂O-N emission via this pathway of 13.2 g over the period of study (45 days) was calculated. This compared with a predicted emission of the order of 300 g, based on measured losses of NO₃ ^- and NH₄ ⁺ in the field drainage water, and the default IPCC emission factor of 0.01 kg N₂O-N per kg Nentering rivers and estuaries. In contrast to widespread evidence of a clear relationship between the amount of N applied to agricultural land and subsequent direct N₂O emission from the soil surface, the relationship between the amount of N₂O in soil drainage waters and the amount of N applied was poor. We conclude that the complexity, both spatially and temporally, of the processes ultimately responsible for the amount of N₂O in agricultural drainage waters make a straightforward relationship between N₂O concentration and N application rate unlikely in all but the simplest of systems.