An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

Effect of Al(III) speciation on coagulation of highly turbid water

In Taiwan, the turbidity of raw water for fresh water treatments can sometimes reach as high as 40 000 NTU due to intensive rainfall, especially in typhoon seasons. In response, water works often apply large quantities of coagulants such as polyaluminium chloride (PACl). In this study, simulated and natural highly turbid water was coagulated with two PACls, a commercial product (PACl-1) and a laboratory product (PACl-E). The Al species distributions of PACl-1 and PACl-E under various pH conditions were determined, and the corresponding coagulation efficiency was evaluated. The PACl-E has a wider range of operational pH, while the efficiency of PACl-1 peaks at around neutral pH. For simulated water up to 5000 NTU, the PACl-E was superior to PACl-1 at low dosage and in the pH range studied. Similar results were discovered with natural water, except that when the turbidity was extremely high, the coagulation efficiency of PACl-E decreased significantly due to the presence of large amounts of organic matter. The coagulation of PACl-E was closely related to the content of polycationic aluminium (Al₁₃) while that of PACl-1 was dictated by the amount of Al_c. The sludge from PACl-E coagulation had better dewaterability when the optimum dosage was applied. The experimental results suggest that for natural water up to 5000 NTU, PACl containing high Al₁₃ species is recommended for coagulation. In cases when the water contains high organic matter, efficient coagulation depends upon enmeshment by amorphous aluminium hydroxide.     

Apportionment of ambient primary and secondary fine particulate matter at the Pittsburgh National Energy Laboratory particulate matter characterization site using positive matrix factorization and a potential source contributions function analysis

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations associated with 202 24-hr samples collected at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) particulate matter (PM) characterization site in south Pittsburgh from October 1999 through September 2001 were used to apportion PM2.5 into primary and secondary contributions using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF2). Input included the concentrations of PM2.5 mass determined with a Federal Reference Method (FRM) sampler, semi-volatile PM2.5 organic material, elemental carbon (EC), and trace element components of PM2.5. A total of 11 factors were identified. The results of potential source contributions function (PSCF) analysis using PMF2 factors and HYSPLIT-calculated back-trajectories were used to identify those factors associated with specific meteorological transport conditions. The 11 factors were identified as being associated with emissions from various specific regions and facilities including crustal material, gasoline combustion, diesel combustion, and three nearby sources high in trace metals. Three sources associated with transport from coal-fired power plants to the southeast, a combination of point sources to the northwest, and a steel mill and associated sources to the west were identified. In addition, two secondary-material-dominated sources were identified, one was associated with secondary products of local emissions and one was dominated by secondary ammonium sulfate transported to the NETL site from the west and southwest. Of these 11 factors, the four largest contributors to PM2.5 were the secondary transported material (dominated by ammonium sulfate) (47%), local secondary material (19%), diesel combustion emissions (10%), and gasoline combustion emissions (8%). The other seven factors accounted for the remaining 16% of the PM2.5 mass. The findings are consistent with the major source of PM2.5 in the Pittsburgh area being dominated by ammonium sulfate from distant transport and so decoupled from local activity emitting organic pollutants in the metropolitan area. In contrast, the major local secondary sources are dominated by organic material.     

ANADROMOUS SALMONID RECOVERY IN THE UMATILLA RWER BASIN,OREGON: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The Umatilla River Basin Fisheries Restoration Plan was initiated in the early 1980s to mitigate salmonid losses caused by hydroelectric development and habitat degradation. The objectives are to enhance the abundance of endemic steelhead and reintroduce extirpated chinook and coho salmon. The project prompted collaborative effort among federal, state, and tribal agencies, and local water users. It has incorporated habitat restoration, flow enhancement, fish passage improvements, and population supplementation through artificial production. Water exchanges have successfully increased minimum flows during spring and fall migration. While flows remain depressed compared to historic conditions, there is potential for improved habitat, passage, and homing. The mean adult‐to‐adult return rate of hatchery‐reared steelhead exceeded replacement and that of the naturally‐spawning population. Although the smolt‐to‐adult survival rates of hatchery‐reared fish fluctuate, salmonid escapement has increased in recent years, permitting steelhead and spring chinook harvest. Enumeration of potential spawners and observed redds reveals an increase in natural production of all supplemented species. Comparison of hatchery‐reared and naturally‐spawning steelhead populations revealed differences in life history characteristics (in age composition and sex ratios) though run timing and genetic stock compositions of the two components of the populations have not differed. Sustained monitoring is needed to determine benefits of integrating habitat restoration and artificial production in restoring salmonid populations.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE‐WATER QUALITY IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Data from long‐term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water‐quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water‐quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate‐induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability. Continued climate stress would increase the frequency with which ecosystem thresholds are exceeded and thus lead to chronic water‐quality changes. Management strategies in a warmer climate will therefore be needed that are based on local ecological thresholds rather than annual median condition. Changes in land use alter biological, physical, and chemical processes in watersheds and thus significantly alter the quality of adjacent surface waters; these direct human‐caused changes complicate the interpretation of water‐quality changes resulting from changes in climate, and can be both mitigated and exacerbated by climate change. A rigorous strategy for integrated, long‐term monitoring of the ecological and human factors that control water quality is necessary to differentiate between actual and perceived climate effects, and to track the effectiveness of our environmental policies.     

Warning variables affecting personal protective equipment use

This paper describes two studies conducted to test selected warning variables for their influence on the use of personal protective equipment. Both of the studies were field demonstrations; one conducted in a recreational setting and the other as part of a consumer product scenario. Each of the studies involved manipulations that could be practically implemented in many warning situations. Both studies showed that cost strongly influenced the use of personal protective equipment. “Cost” was shown to include parameters of time and difficulty with obtaining the equipment. The results indicate that a small increase in cost can devastate equipment use rates. Additional factors that were shown to positively influence equipment use under at least some circumstances include: (1) the addition of “specific consequence” information, including accident frequency and severity data, to standard warning signs/labels; and (2) product labels requiring physical manipulation by the consumer for product use.     

受西班牙阿斯纳科利亚尔黄铁矿有毒污染液影响的土壤和植物中镉和锌浓度

引言 阿斯纳科利亚尔矿处于自西班牙中南部延伸至葡萄牙的黄铜矿丰富地带,劳斯福若斯是该矿的一个新开采地点,位于西班牙南部塞维尔以西45km,于1996年开工.提炼具有极高商业价值的锌(Zn)、铅(Pb)和汞(Hg)等高等级矿石产生了大量的重金属矿泥污水和高酸度废水(pH 2),而这些废水贮存在残渣围坝内,1998年4月25日,一处50m宽的决口使600万m3富含重金属的酸性废水和有毒矿渣泥浆(2:1的比例)泄漏到流经唐娜纳的高迪亚玛河(Gaudiamar).     

The clinical utility of microarray technologies applied to prenatal cytogenetics in the presence of a normal conventional karyotype: a review of the literature

The clinical utility of microarray technologies when used in the context of prenatal diagnosis lies in the technology's ability to detect submicroscopic copy number changes that are associated with clinically significant outcomes. We have carried out a systematic review of the literature to calculate the utility of prenatal microarrays in the presence of a normal conventional karyotype. Amongst 12 362 cases in studies that recruited cases from all prenatal ascertainment groups, 295/12 362 (2.4%) overall were reported to have copy number changes with associated clinical significance (pCNC), 201/3090 (6.5%) when ascertained with an abnormal ultrasound, 50/5108 (1.0%) when ascertained because of increased maternal age and 44/4164 (1.1%) for all other ascertainment groups (e.g. parental anxiety and abnormal serum screening result). When additional prenatal microarray studies are included in which ascertainment was restricted to fetuses with abnormal ultrasound scans, 262/3730 (7.0%) were reported to have pCNCs. © 2013 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Genetic counselling and ethical issues with chromosome microarray analysis in prenatal testing

Molecular karyotyping using chromosome microarray analysis (CMA) detects more pathogenic chromosomal anomalies than classical karyotyping, making CMA likely to become a first tier test for prenatal diagnosis. Detecting copy number variants of uncertain clinical significance raises ethical considerations. We consider the risk of harm to a woman or her fetus following the detection of a copy number variant of uncertain significance, whether it is ethically justifiable to withhold any test result information from a woman, what constitutes an ‘informed choice’ when women are offered CMA in pregnancy and whether clinicians are morally responsible for ‘unnecessary’ termination of pregnancy. Although we are cognisant of the distress associated with uncertain prenatal results, we argue in favour of the autonomy of women and their right to information from genome-wide CMA in order to make informed choices about their pregnancies. We propose that information material to a woman's decision-making process, including uncertain information, should not be withheld, and that it would be paternalistic for clinicians to try to take responsibility for women's decisions to terminate pregnancies. Non-directive pre-test and post-test genetic counselling is central to the delivery of these ethical objectives. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.