消融的冰川：加拿大班夫国家公园亚高山带鲍湖中持久性有机氯的主要来源

有机氯杀虫剂和多氯联苯（PCB）是环境中普遍而稳固的化合物。现已查明，由于它们从温暖的地区逐渐蒸发出来，并在较冷的地区凝聚下来，因而它们富集在寒冷的环境中。在本研究中，我们的结果是，消融的冰川供给阿尔伯达亚高山带湖泊中的有机氯输入量为50%～97％，而提供的水量为73％。对氚的分析结果表明，在夏季的中、晚期，至少10％的冰川消融物是在1950～1970年期间沉积下来的，这期间它受到有机氯更多的污染。这一发现表明，气候变暖可能会使消融的冰川成为日益增多的淡水污染物来源。由于有机物贫乏的冰川粘土对多氯联苯这样的疏水化合物的吸附能力有限，因此冰川水流带来的有机氯大多呈溶解状态。     

Hygroscopic organic aerosols during BRAVO?

The hygroscopic properties of the organic fraction of aerosols are poorly understood. The ability of organic aerosols to absorb water as a function of relative humidity (RH) was examined using data collected during the 1999 Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study (BRAVO). (On average, organics accounted for 22% of fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) mass). Hourly RH exceeded 80% only 3.5% of the time and averaged 44%. BRAVO aerosol chemical composition and dry particle size distributions were used to estimate PM2.5 light scattering (Bsp) at low and high ambient RH. Liquid water growth associated with inorganic species was sufficient to account for measured Bsp for RH between 70 and 95%.     

Bioaccumulation of PCBs in Arctic seabirds: influence of dietary exposure and congener biotransformation

Four seabird species and their prey (zooplankton or fish) were collected in the Barents Sea to determine how dietary exposure, cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzyme activities and sex influenced their hepatic PCB concentrations and accumulation patterns. Five males and five females from each seabird species (little auk (Alle alle), Brunnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia), black guillemot (Cepphus grylle) and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla)) were analysed. PCB concentrations could not be explained directly by carbon source (delta13C) or trophic position (delta15N), but by a combination of dietary parameters (delta13C, delta15N, migratory pattern, age) and contaminant metabolism. Contrary to previous studies, the PCB pattern differed among seabirds, with a higher proportion of persistent congeners (% of PCB-153, RPCB-153) in black-legged kittiwake than in auks. The PCB pattern also differed among auks, with little auk as the most efficient biotransformer (highest RPCB-153 values of persistent congeners). Based on high RPCB-153 values, Brunnich's guillemot poorly metabolised ortho-meta-unsubstituted congeners, whereas black guillemot poorly metabolised meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Species-specific differences in PCB biotransformation were confirmed by metabolic indices, where PCB patterns in seabirds were adjusted for PCB pattern in prey. The relative contribution of ortho-meta-unsubstituted congeners to SigmaPCBs decreased with increasing EROD activity. There were no differences in PCB concentrations, PCB patterns or cytochrome P450 enzyme activities between males and females. CYP P450 activities (CYP1A- and CYP2B/3A-like: EROD and testosterone 6beta-hydroxylation, respectively) were low and did not correlate with concentrations of non- or mono-ortho Cl-substituted PCBs (NO- and MO-PCBs), or with total toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQs) for dioxin-like effects of NO- and MO-PCBs.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.     

Response to “Comment on ‘Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers’ by Powell VA, McGlashan DJ, Duck RW (2012) J Coast Conserv” by Rickards L, Brown J, Hibbert A, Woodworth P, Plater AJ (2013) J Coast Conserv

Tide gauge data have become increasing accessible to non-specialists through the availability of records over the Internet. Our original paper, “Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers”, focused on highlighting the potential pitfalls in tide gauge data manipulation that non-specialists may not be aware of. Since publication, Rickards et al. have made helpful observations and raised queries about certain elements within our paper, which we respond to here.     

Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world??s coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8?±?0.5?mm a^?1, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80?years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers.     

The importance of the “not-so-cool” sectors: creative solutions to reconcile environmental and economic sustainability within a floodplain

Creative cities are generally considered as “cool” spaces which attract a particular “creative class” whose ability to innovate and transform – particularly in the media and cultural sectors – offers urban economies a competitive edge. This paper argues that, in the face of dangerous climate change, the creativity of the “not-so-cool” sectors needs to be acknowledged and valued. A case study of Salford in the north-west of England shows how political, technological and economic creativity has secured sustainable regeneration within a floodplain. It is argued that the concept of “creativity” in urban economic discourse needs to be widened to acknowledge the importance of the creativity of planners, civil engineers and builders in securing environmentally sustainable cities. Environmental sustainability, it suggests, not only underpins economic sustainability. Faced with dangerous climate change and society's need to respond, the skills and expertise can in themselves contribute to a city's competitiveness.     

A harvest failure approach to assess the threat from an invasive species

We present the idea of using potential infringements on annual allowable harvest targets as an approach to estimate threats from invasive species to the forest products sector. The approach uses present-day harvest levels as a reference level to estimate when and where the impact of a nonnative forest pest could become economically damaging. We use a generic model that simulates spread and damage by nonnative invasive species, basic harvest and forest growth through time. The concept is illustrated with a case study of a new nonnative invasive pest, Sirex noctilio Fabricius on pine resources in eastern Canada. Impacts of invasion on wood supply, in particular, the point at which present-day harvest levels are not attainable, were identified for 77 non-overlapping geographical regions that delimit the primary wood supply areas around large mills and wood processing facilities in eastern Canada. The results identify the minimum area of a pest outbreak that could trigger harvest shortages (approximately 12.5–14 M ha of pine forests in Ontario and Quebec). Beyond this level, the amount of host resource available for harvesting in any given year declines rapidly. The failure to sustain broad-scale harvest targets may be an attractive and intuitive indicator for policy makers and regulators interested in developing control and “slow-the-spread” programs for non-native forest pests.     

NATURAL RESTABILIZATION OF STREAM CHANNELS IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channels are known to change their form as a result of watershed urbanization, but do they restabilize under subsequent conditions of constant urban land use? Streams in seven developed and developing watersheds (drainage areas 5–35 km²) in the Puget Sound lowlands were evaluated for their channel stability and degree of urbanization, using field and historical data. Protocols for determining channel stability by visual assessment, calculated bed mobility at bankfull flows, and resurveyed cross‐sections were compared and yielded nearly identical results. We found that channel restabilization generally does occur within one or two decades of constant watershed land use, but it is not universal. When (or if) an individual stream will restabilize depends on specific hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics of the channel and its watershed; observed stability is not well predicted by simply the magnitude of urban development or the rate of ongoing land‐use change. The tendency for channel restabilization suggests that management efforts focused primarily on maintaining stability, particularly in a still‐urbanizing watershed, may not always be necessary. Yet physical stability alone is not a sufficient condition for a biologically healthy stream, and additional rehabilitation measures will almost certainly be required to restore biological conditions in urban systems.