Impacts of cyclone Hamish at One Tree Reef: integrating environmental and benthic habitat data

The southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region that rarely experiences cyclones, was impacted by tropical cyclone (TC) Hamish in March 2009. We documented on-reef physical and habitat conditions before, during and after the cyclone at One Tree Reef (OTR) using data from environmental sensor instrumentation and benthic surveys. Over 5 years of monitoring, ocean mooring data revealed that OTR experienced large swells (4–8 m) of short duration (10–20 min) not associated with a cyclone in the area. These swells may have contributed to the physical disturbance of benthic biota and decline in coral cover recorded prior to and after TC Hamish. During the cyclone, OTR sustained southeasterly gale force winds (>61.2 km h⁻¹) for 18.5 h and swells >6 m in height for 4 h. Benthic surveys of exposed sites documented a 20% drop in live coral cover, 30% increase in filamentous algae cover and the presence of dislodged corals and rubble after the storm. Leeward sites were largely unaffected by the cyclone. Benthic cover did not change in the lagoon sites. Significant rubble movement and infill of the lagoon occurred. Two years after the cyclone, algal cover remained high and laminar corals had not recovered. Total coral cover at impacted sites had continued to decline. Environmental conditions and habitat surveys supported Puotinen’s (Int J Geogr Inf Sci 21:97–120, 2007) model for cyclone conditions that cause reef destruction. While TC Hamish had a major impact on the reef, change in benthic cover over several years was due to multiple stressors. This on-reef scale integration of physical and biological data provided a rare opportunity to assess impacts of a major storm and other disturbances, showing the importance of considering multiple stressors (short-lived and sustained) in assessing change to reef habitats.     

Identification of distinct movement patterns in Pacific leatherback turtle populations influenced by ocean conditions

Interactions with fisheries are believed to be a major cause of mortality for adult leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), which is of particular concern in the Pacific Ocean, where they have been rapidly declining. In order to identify where these interactions are occurring and how they may be reduced, it is essential first to understand the movements and behavior of leatherback turtles. There are two regional nesting populations in the East Pacific (EP) and West Pacific (WP), comprising multiple nesting sites. We synthesized tracking data from the two populations and compared their movement patterns. A switching state-space model was applied to 135 Argos satellite tracks to account for observation error, and to distinguish between migratory and area-restricted search behaviors. The tracking data, from the largest leatherback data set ever assembled, indicated that there was a high degree of spatial segregation between EP and WP leatherbacks. Area-restricted search behavior mainly occurred in the southeast Pacific for the EP leatherbacks, whereas the WP leatherbacks had several different search areas in the California Current, central North Pacific, South China Sea, off eastern Indonesia, and off southeastern Australia. We also extracted remotely sensed oceanographic data and applied a generalized linear mixed model to determine if leatherbacks exhibited different behavior in relation to environmental variables. For the WP population, the probability of area-restricted search behavior was positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration. This response was less strong in the EP population, but these turtles had a higher probability of search behavior where there was greater Ekman upwelling, which may increase the transport of nutrients and consequently prey availability. These divergent responses to oceanographic conditions have implications for leatherback vulnerability to fisheries interactions and to the effects of climate change. The occurrence of leatherback turtles within both coastal and pelagic areas means they have a high risk of exposure to many different fisheries, which may be very distant from their nesting sites. The EP leatherbacks have more limited foraging grounds than the WP leatherbacks, which could make them more susceptible to any temperature or prey changes that occur in response to climate change.     

Formation of tidal starting-jet vortices through idealized barotropic inlets with finite length

This paper presents a surface particle image velocimetry study to investigate the dynamics of shallow starting-jet dipoles formed by tidal flow through inlets and their interaction with vorticity formed at the inlet channel lateral boundaries. Vortical structure in the flow field is identified using a local swirl strength criterion evaluated from the two-dimensional flow field. The starting jet dipole vortices and vortices formed as the lateral boundary layers are expelled during flow reversal are characterized by their trajectory, size, and circulation. Using these quantities, a model is developed to predict the size and strength of the expelled lateral boundary layer vortices based on the inlet velocity, channel length, and width of the lateral boundary layer. The expelled boundary layer vortices are found to disrupt the formation of the primary tidal jet dipole through two mechanisms. First, because the boundary layer vortices themselves form a dipole with each half of the starting-jet dipole, the starting-jet vortices are pulled apart and advected away from the inlet mouth early in the tidal cycle, resulting in a reduction in the spin-up time and the amount of vorticity input during starting-jet vortex formation. Second, the advection of each dipole away from the inlet disconnects each starting-jet vortex from the starting jet; hence, the vortices are not fed by fluid in the jet or energized by shear in the jet boundary layers. These influences of the lateral boundary layer on the starting-jet vortices’ formation and propagation are found to be a function of the channel length L, maximum velocity U, and tidal period T, resulting in a predictive value to characterize their trajectory, strength, and evolution.     

Is natural hatching asynchrony optimal? An experimental investigation of sibling competition patterns in a facultatively siblicidal seabird

In unpredictable environments, any tactic that enables avian parents to adjust brood size and, thus, energy expenditure to environmental conditions should be favoured. Hatching asynchrony (HA), which occurs whenever incubation commences before clutch completion, may comprise such a tactic. For instance, the sibling rivalry hypothesis states that the hierarchy among chicks, concomitant to HA, should both facilitate the adjustment of brood size to environmental conditions and reduce several components of sibling competition as compared to synchronous hatching, at both brood and individual levels. We thus predicted that brood aggression, begging and feeding rates should decrease and that older chick superiority should increase with HA increasing, leading to higher growth and survival rates. Accordingly, we investigated the effects of an experimental upward and downward manipulation of HA magnitude on behaviour, growth and survival of black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) chicks. In line with the sibling rivalry hypothesis, synchronous hatching increased aggression and tended to increase feeding rates by parents at the brood level. Begging rates, however, increased with HA contrary to our expectations. At the individual level, as HA magnitude increased, the younger chick was attacked and begged proportionally more often, experienced a slower growth and a higher mortality than its sibling. Overall, the occurrence of energetic costs triggered by synchronous hatching both for parents and chicks, together with the lower growth rate and increased mortality of the younger chick in highly asynchronous broods suggest that natural HA magnitude may be optimal.     

Partial fertility and polyandry: a benefit of multiple mating hiding in plain sight?

Multiple mating is common in many socially monogamous birds and mammals, but why is still unclear. Fertility insurance is one the posited genetic benefits. However, this mechanism fails if females cannot detect male infertility before mating, and infertile sperm are equally capable of fertilizing eggs (e.g., fertilization occurs but is followed by early developmental arrest): multiple mating simply exchanges whole brood loss for partial brood loss with no difference in the overall proportion of failed offspring. However, I note here that these two options will rarely result in equivalent reproductive success: partial brood loss will generally result in more surviving offspring than whole brood loss vs. whole brood survival due to increasing per capita survival of offspring in smaller broods. A partial fertility strategy can yield benefits even in the extreme case where fertility is cryptic and defective sperm are capable of fertilizing eggs. Moreover, partial fertility will yield an added benefit to fertility insurance when the precedence of fertile over infertile sperm is incomplete.     

Symbiont shuffling during thermal bleaching and recovery in the sea anemone Entacmaea quadricolor

The sea anemone Entacmaea quadricolor simultaneously harbours multiple symbiont types from the genus Symbiodinium, while providing essential habitat for anemonefish. This anemone lives close to its upper thermal threshold and experiences bleaching under elevated temperature and light stress. Here, we determine whether E. quadricolor experienced a shuffling in the abundance of two genetically distinct symbiont types (Symbiodinium C25 and C3.25) during bleaching and recovery. Anemones were exposed to control (22.9 °C) or elevated temperature (28.5 °C) for 42 days, whereas for the following 75 days, all anemones were exposed to 22.9 °C. By day 47, a more pronounced bleaching occurred via symbiont expulsion in the elevated temperature treatment than the control, and the proportion of C25 to C25 + C3.25 increased by 6.2 and 13.2 % in the control and bleached anemones, respectively. The increased relative abundance of C25 to C3.25 after exposure to thermal stress may indicate that C3.25 performs poorly when temperature is elevated. Although no significant recovery in symbiont density was detected, a revival of the C3.25 genotype was found at day 117, which may indicate that it is either more competitive or has qualities that are beneficial to the symbiosis when thermal stress is no longer apparent. This work demonstrates the potential for this anemone species to shuffle its symbiont types in response to environmental change and could provide resilience during times of stress.     

A Probabilistic,Parcel‐Level Inundation Prediction Tool for Medium‐Range Flood Forecasting in Large Lake Systems

This study contributes a bathtub‐style inundation prediction model with abstractions of coastal processes (i.e., storm surge and wave runup) for flood forecasting at medium‐range (weekly to monthly) timescales along the coastline of large lakes. Uncertainty from multiple data sources are propagated through the model to establish probabilistic bounds of inundation, providing a conservative measure of risk. The model is developed in a case study of the New York Lake Ontario shoreline, which has experienced two record‐setting floods over the course of three years (2017–2019). Predictions are developed at a parcel‐level and are validated using inundation accounts from an online survey and flyover imagery taken during the recent flood events. Model predictions are compared against a baseline, deterministic model that accounts for the same processes but does not propagate forward data uncertainties. Results suggest that a probabilistic approach helps capture observed instances of inundation that would otherwise be missed by a deterministic inundation model. However, downward biases are still present in probabilistic predictions, especially for parcels impacted by wave runup. The goal of the tool is to provide community planners and property owners with a conservative, parcel‐level assessment of flood risk to help inform short‐term emergency response and better prepare for future flood events.     

Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions in the sustainable development Goals Agenda

In 2017 the paper ‘The Sustainable Development Oxymoron: Quantifying and Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals’ was published, showing that there is a conflict between socio-economic development goals and ecological sustainability goals using cross-country time-series data. The authors looked at production-based CO2 emissions to measure and model the 13^th SDG goal addressing climate change. Their models showed that production-based CO2 emissions were stalling or even decreasing in rich countries, which suggests that other countries are also likely to see stalling and decrease in their CO2 emissions once they become rich. However, this conclusion can be challenged when accounting for consumption-based CO2 emissions rather than production-based CO2 emissions. In this follow-up paper, we re-run some of the analyses performed in the original paper making use of consumption-based CO2 emissions. The analysis confirms the inherent SDG conflict between socio-economic and ecological SDGs. But, this new analysis demonstrates that from a consumption perspective the trend of stalling or decreasing CO2 emissions is reversed, with natural depletion costs being exported to poorer countries. Despite this new perspective on CO2 emissions, the conflict between SDG goals can still be avoided by making investments in public health, education and renewable energy, as suggested in the original paper.     

Hunger and food allocation among nestlings of facultatively siblicidal ospreys

Summary Previous studies of food allocation among nestlings of siblicidal birds have focussed on the proximate link between food and aggression. However, food sharing among sibs (and brood reduction) need not involve aggression. Here I examine the role of hunger (defined operationally in terms of the amount of food eaten recently) within the broader framework of passive and aggressive food-sharing among nestlings of facultatively siblicidal ospreys (Pandion haliaetus). Feeding among brood members was hierarchical; senior, dominant sibs ate more when hungry, leaving a smaller residual share of food for junior sibs. Senior sibs did not become more generous at large meals (i.e., the prospect of a large meal did not quell the selfish tendencies of senior sibs). That individuals ate more when hungry indicates a proximate link between food and the allocation of resources among siblings. Overall, aggression was infrequent and seemed to be used when junior sibs contested food allocation at meals. Aggression was diminished and food allocation was skewed toward the junior sib in broods with artificially exaggerated hatching intervals, suggesting that senior sibs were more generous when their dominant status was not threatened.Offprint requests to the present address