A High‐Resolution National‐Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model

Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.     

Significance of Riverine Hypoxia for Fish: The Case of the Big Sunflower River,Mississippi1

Shields, F. Douglas, Jr. and Scott S. Knight, 2011. Significance of Riverine Hypoxia for Fish: The Case of the Big Sunflower River, Mississippi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 170‐186. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00606.x Abstract: Degraded streams draining low‐relief, intensively cultivated watersheds may experience periods of hypoxia or anoxia. A three‐year study of water chemistry, fish, and physical habitat in the Big Sunflower River in northwestern Mississippi coupled with continuously logged physicochemical and hydrology data provided by others showed prolonged periods of hypoxia associated with higher flows. Fish species richness was directly related to dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration (r² = 0.35, p = 0.00004), and ordination using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) indicated strong association between fish community structure and DO. Low‐head weirs supported relatively dense and diverse fish communities and thus provided local habitat enhancement, but may create stagnant zones upstream due to backwater effects that exacerbate low DO problems. Although hypoxia has been reported for some lightly degraded rivers and floodplains, our observations suggest hypoxia in Big Sunflower River and similar systems alters fish species composition and should be remediated. Cost‐effective remediation will require better understanding of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes that control DO and the relationship of these processes to discharge.     

Dynamics of Plains Cottonwood (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Populus deltoides</Emphasis>) Forests and Historical Landscape Change along Unchannelized Segments of the Missouri River,USA

Construction of six large dams and reservoirs on the Missouri River over the last 50–75 years has resulted in major landscape changes and alterations in flow patterns, with implications for riparian forests dominated by plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides). We quantified changes in land cover from 1892–1950s and the 1950s–2006 and the current extent and age structure of cottonwood forests on seven segments (two reservoir and five remnant floodplain) comprising 1127 km (53 %) of the unchannelized upper two-thirds of the Missouri River. Riparian forest area declined by 49 %; grassland 61 %; shrubland 52 %; and sandbar habitat 96 %; while agricultural cropland increased six-fold and river/reservoir surface area doubled from 1892 to 2006. Net rates of erosion and accretion declined between the 1892–1950s and 1950s–2006 periods. Accretion exceeded erosion on remnant floodplain segments, resulting in declines in active channel width, particularly in 1950s–2006. Across all study segments in 2006, most cottonwood stands (67 %) were >50 years old, 22 % were 25–50 years old, and only 10 % were <25 years old. Among stands <50 years old, the higher proportion of 25–50 year old stands represents recruitment that accompanied initial post-dam channel narrowing; while declines in sandbar and shrubland area and the low proportion of stands <25 years old suggest declines in geomorphic dynamism and limited recruitment under recent river management. Future conservation and restoration efforts should focus both on limiting further loss of remnant cottonwood stands and developing approaches to restore river dynamics and cottonwood recruitment processes.     

On "China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials" case in terms of DSB's interpretations

The Appellate Body report in January 2012 had supported the decision of Panel in the"China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials"case(WT/DS394,395,398)and affirmed that China's restrictions(such as tariffs and quota measures)on the exportation of raw materials violated rules put forth by the WTO,which were required to be modified.In this case China's right to invoke Article 20 of GATT1994("general exception")to justify its exemption from the guidelines in Article 11.3 of the WTO Accession Protocol was denied by the Panel and the Appellate Body.This was due to the fact that the phrasing in Article 11.3 of Protocol failed to mention"GATT."This was the consequence of the two interpretation approaches the Dispute Settlement Body(DSB)adopted-a narrow textual interpretation and a subjective presumption of"legislative silence."The inappropriate use of the two methods of interpretation lead to an imbalance between the right and obligation of China under the additional obligations that were imposed upon China by the WTO,which create a negative impact on China's rare earth case and the protection of domestic natural resources.     

The utility of behavioral studies for aquatic toxicology testing: A meta-analysis

Behavioral responses have been applied for decades as tools for aquatic toxicity testing, but have received far less attention than studies assessing lethality, development or reproduction. With improved visual and non-visual assessment tools and increased knowledge of the importance of behavior for organism health and fitness, interest in behavioral analysis has increased in recent years. However, to our knowledge there has never been a quantitative assessment of the available techniques for organismal toxicity testing, so it is not clear whether behavioral studies represent valuable additions to environmental monitoring. We performed a meta-analysis comparing the relative sensitivities and average durations of behavioral studies to those assessing acute lethality, development and reproduction. Results demonstrate that the average duration of behavioral studies is consistently less than developmental or reproductive studies, and that behavioral endpoints are generally more sensitive than those assessing development or reproduction. We found effect sizes to be lower but power to be higher in behavioral and reproductive studies compared to studies assessing development, which likely relates to low sample sizes commonly used in developmental studies. Overall, we conclude that behavioral studies are comparatively fast and sensitive, and therefore warrant further attention as tools for assessing the toxicological effects of environmental contaminants. We suggest that research aimed at developing and optimizing techniques for behavioral analysis could prove extremely useful to the field of toxicology, but that future work must be directed at determining what specific behaviors are most sensitive to various classes of contaminants, and at understanding the relevance of changes to discrete behaviors for influencing organismal and population-level health and fitness.     

Benefits to rare plants and highway safety from annual population reductions of a “native invader,” white-tailed deer, in a Chicago-area woodland

Overabundant white-tailed deer are one of the most serious threats to woodland plant communities in the Chicago area. Moreover, the abundant deer in a highly populated area causes economic harm and poses hazards to human safety through collisions with vehicles. The artificial conditions causing the overabundance and resulting consequences qualify the white-tailed deer in the Chicago area to be considered as “native invaders”. We examined the benefits of culling deer at a Chicago-area woodland preserve by comparing browse rates on four endangered plant species from years before culling began with years with culling. We also examined deer–vehicle collision and traffic flow rates on area roads from years before culling began and years with culling to assess whether population reductions may have benefited road safety in the area. All four endangered plant species (three orchid species and sweet fern) had lower browse rates in years with culls, although the decreased browsing rates were statistically distinguishable for only two of the species (grass pink orchid and sweet fern). After first verifying that traffic flow rates did not decrease from pre-cull years to years with culls, we analyzed the Illinois Department of Transportation data from area roads based on deer–vehicle collisions causing >US$500 in damage and showed a one-third reduction in deer–vehicle collisions. An economic analysis showed a cost savings during the cull years of US$0.6 million for reducing browsing to just these four monitored plant species and the reduction in deer–vehicle collisions.     

An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

Modeling the Reduction of Vapor Phase Emissions from Surface Soils Due to Soil Matrix Effects: Porosity/Tortuosity Concepts

ABSTRACT

A major route for transport of volatile organic compounds within porous media is vapor phase diffusion. The diffusion rate through a porous medium is less than that through free-air due to the decreased cross-sectional area available for gas movement and the increased path length due to pore tortuosity. Numerous empirical expressions have been published that relate the diffusion coefficient in porous media to the diffusion coefficient in free-air (unobstructed gas phase). Published measurements of relative diffusivity and air-filled porosity were combined into a database. Empirical expressions available in the literature, including the popular Millington-Quirk equation, were evaluated along with a fourth-degree polynomial expression developed by the authors to determine the best type of equation to predict relative diffusivity as a function of air-filled porosity over the domain of values for porosity ranging from 0.071 to 1 for different types of materials. Mean square deviations were used as the statistical test to compare equations. The polynomial expression developed in this project produced a significantly different effective diffusion coefficient (1.3 x 10^-6 m²/sec) compared to values of 9.2 x 10^-6 m²/sec and 3.1 x 10^-6 m²/ sec predicted by forms of the Millington-Quirk equation for a specific case.     

Idle Emissions from Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles: Review and Recent Data

Abstract

Heavy-duty diesel vehicle idling consumes fuel and reduces atmospheric quality, but its restriction cannot simply be proscribed, because cab heat or air-conditioning provides essential driver comfort. A comprehensive tailpipe emissions database to describe idling impacts is not yet available. This paper presents a substantial data set that incorporates results from the West Virginia University transient engine test cell, the E-55/59 Study and the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study. It covered 75 heavy-duty diesel engines and trucks, which were divided into two groups: vehicles with mechanical fuel injection (MFI) and vehicles with electronic fuel injection (EFI). Idle emissions of CO, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO₂) have been reported. Idle CO₂ emissions allowed the projection of fuel consumption during idling. Test-to-test variations were observed for repeat idle tests on the same vehicle because of measurement variation, accessory loads, and ambient conditions. Vehicles fitted with EFI, on average, emitted [~20 g/hr of CO, 6 g/hr of HC, 86 g/hr of NO_x, 1 g/hr of PM, and 4636 g/hr of CO₂ during idle. MFI equipped vehicles emitted ~35 g/hr of CO, 23 g/hr of HC, 48 g/hr of NO_x, 4 g/hr of PM, and 4484 g/hr of CO₂, on average, during idle. Vehicles with EFI emitted less idleCO, HC, and PM, which could be attributed to the efficient combustion and superior fuel atomization in EFI systems. Idle NO_x, however, increased with EFI, which corresponds with the advancing of timing to improve idle combustion. Fuel injection management did not have any effect on CO₂ and, hence, fuel consumption. Use of air conditioning without increasing engine speed increased idle CO₂, NO_x, PM, HC, and fuel consumption by 25% on average. When the engine speed was elevated from 600 to 1100 revolutions per minute, CO₂ and NO_x emissions and fuel consumption increased by >150%, whereas PM and HC emissions increased by ~100% and 70%, respectively. Six Detroit Diesel Corp. (DDC) Series 60 engines in engine test cell were found to emit less CO, NO_x, and PM emissions and consumed fuel at only 75%of the level found in the chassis dynamometer data. This is because fan and compressor loads were absent in the engine test cell.