Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector

Winter recreation is an important part of the cultural identity of the Northeast United States and is a multibillion dollar contributor to the regional economy. This study examined the vulnerability of the two largest winter recreation industries, snowmobiling and alpine skiing, to four climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. Under all scenarios, natural snow became an increasingly scarce resource. The diminished natural snow pack had a very negative impact on the snowmobile industry. As early as 2010–2039, 4 to 6 of the 15 snowmobile study areas were projected to lose more than half of the current season. Reliable snowmobile seasons (>50 days) were virtually eliminated in the region under the A1Fi scenarios by 2070–2099. The large investment in snowmaking substantially reduced the vulnerability of the ski industry and climate change posed a risk to only 4 of the 14 ski areas in 2010–2039, where average ski seasons declined below 100 days and the probability of being open for the entire Christmas–New Year’s holiday declined below 75%. Conversely, by 2070–2099 only four ski study areas had not reached these same economic risk criteria. In order to minimize ski season losses, snowmaking requirements are projected to increase substantially, raising important uncertainties about water availability and cost. Climate change represents a notable threat to the winter recreation sector in the Northeast, and the potential economic ramifications for businesses and communities heavily invested in winter tourism and related real estate is sizeable.     

Timber harvest transforms ecological roles of salmon in southeast Alaska rain forest streams

Although species commonly modify habitats and thereby influence ecosystem structure and function, the factors governing the ecological importance of these modifications are not well understood. Pacific salmon have repeatedly been shown to positively influence the abundance of benthic biota by annually transferring large quantities of nutrients from marine systems to the nutrient-poor freshwaters in which they spawn. Conversely, other studies have demonstrated that salmon can negatively influence the abundance of freshwater biota, an effect attributed to bioturbation during upstream migration and nest construction. The factors determining which of these contrasting ecological effects predominates are unknown, including how human activities, such as land use, influence ecological responses to salmon. We sampled a key basal food resource, sediment biofilm, in seven southeast Alaskan streams impacted to varying degrees by timber harvest. Biofilm abundance (measured as chlorophyll a and ash-free dry mass) was positively related to timber-harvest intensity prior to salmon arrival. However, during the salmon run, an inverse relationship emerged of more abundant biofilm in less-harvested watersheds. Among-stream variability in biofilm response to salmon was largely explained by sediment particle size, which was larger in less-harvested watersheds. Collectively, these results suggest that, by altering stream sediment size, timber harvest transformed the dominant effect of salmon from nutrient enrichment to physical disturbance, thus modifying nutrient linkages between marine and freshwater ecosystems.     

Energetics,reproductive suppression and obligate communal breeding in carnivores

Summary Leptogenys processionalis Jerdon forages on termites and other arthropods by raiding in branched trails. Growth and topology of these search trails were studied using Horton's (1945) technique orginally developed to analyze the branching pattern of river systems. Branching was always a bifurcating process and branches emerged symmetrically on either side of the main trail. Branching coefficients (R _b ) were similar to those of a few biological branching systems, such as lungs, that are considered to be non-random in their branching pattern. The R _b values indicated that the rate of branching and growth of trails remained constant within each foraging bout. The length of trails became shorter as they grew out and branched. The branching process was a function of the spatial separation of food patches in the terminal search field. Ants in the terminal search field send signals on encountering prey. The recruits cannot discriminate between these signals if they arise from two food patches situated <40 cm from each other, and hence converge on them in a single trail. However, discrimination is possible when food patches are >40 cm apart and hence recruits congregate on them separately in two trails, resulting in branching. Thus, the branching process is a result of independent decision by the ants conforming to certain simple rules and not a collective decision of the whole colony. We argue that mass recruiting ants selected to forage by branching pattern of trails because of its efficiency over other topologies (Stevens 1973) in minimizing the cost of travel, both from the nest to the food patches and between food patches. Further, the branch angles appear to be a trade-off to minimize travel cost and the resistance to the flow of ants comprising the column.Offprint requests to: T. Veena     

Restoration of riparian forest using irrigation,artificial disturbance,and natural seedfall

In interior western North America, many riparian forests dominated by cottonwood and willow are failing to reproduce downstream of dams. We tested the hypothesis that establishment is now prevented by absence of the bare, moist substrate formerly provided by floods and channel movement. Along Boulder Creek, a dammed stream in the Colorado plains, we tested the effects of disturbance (sod removal), irrigation, and addition of seed on the establishment of seedings of plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp.monilifera) and peachleaf willow (Salix amygdaloides). In unirrigated, undisturbed plots, mean cottonwood density was 0.03 seedlings/m². Irrigation or disturbance alone produced mean cottonwood densities of 0.39 and 0.75 seedlings/m². Plots that were both irrigated and disturbed produced a mean cottonwood density of 10.3 seedlings/m². The effects of irrigation and disturbance on cottonwood establishment were significant (P<0.005); added seed had no significant effect (P=0.78). The few cottonwood seedlings in unirrigated plots were in low positions susceptible to scour by future moderate flows. We conclude that cottonwood establishment along Boulder Creek is limited by the scarcity of bare, moist sites safe from future scour. Establishment of peachleaf willow was significantly affected only by disturbance; daily sprinkler irrigation did not provide sufficient moisture to increase survival of this species. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of restoring plains cottonwood forests using natural seedfall, even where only widely scattered adult trees are present. Because use of natural seedfall conserves the genetic makeup of the local population, this method may be preferable to the use of imported cuttings.     

Determination and implementation of optimal air quality standards

This paper utilizes two least-cost emission control strategies and develops rules for structuring and implementing optimal air quality standards. A strategy typical of those currently enforced, based on the State Implementation Plans (SIP's ), is compared to two least-cost strategies: (i) ambient least cost (ALC ), which achieves required air quality at least cost; and (ii) emissions least cost (ELC ), which achieves required emissions reduction at least cost. A demonstration is given of the theoretically derived result that the ALC strategy should be utilized in cost-benefit analyses to determine air quality standards and to generate emissions taxes. Preliminary analysis of the St. Louis area indicated tentative justification for a particulate ambient standard at least as strict as the current Federal primary standard. The efficiency, equity, and administrative costs for implementation of strategies based on the least-cost concept are also examined.     

ROAD DE-ICING SALTS IN AN URBAN STREAM AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: High concentrations of chloride and sodium were found in the bottom layers of a new flood control reservoir at the beginning of winter thaw periods. The reservoir had a number of significant downstream impacts. After short thaw periods, discharge from the bottom of the reservoir tended to cause higher salt concentrations downstream in comparison with upstream sites. During long thaw periods or when large quantities of rain fell, downstream salt concentrations were considerably less than upstream values. Average chloride and sodium content of soil at the bottom of the reservoir more than doubled as a result of impounding runoff waters for one winter.     

Occupant behavior in a six-storey office building fallowing severe earthquake damage

In the Imperial County, California, earthquake of 15th October 1979, the Imperial County Services Building was seriously damaged — and has subsequently been demolished. At the time of the earthquake there were approximately 123 occupants in the six-storey reinforced concrete building which housed a number of county service departments. This paper investigates occupant behavior in a building subjected to an earthquake, and describes, in detail, what people do during and immediately subsequent to the shock.     

The effects of acid precipitation-long term ecological measurements in loch vale watershed,Rocky Mountain National Park

Contribution from Fourth World Wilderness Congress-Acid Rain Symposium, Denver (Estes Park), Colorado, September 11–18, 1987.