Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.     

Revisiting the classics: considering nonconsumptive effects in textbook examples of predator-prey interactions

Predator effects on prey dynamics are conventionally studied by measuring changes in prey abundance attributed to consumption by predators. We revisit four classic examples of predator-prey systems often cited in textbooks and incorporate subsequent studies of nonconsumptive effects of predators (NCE), defined as changes in prey traits (e.g., behavior, growth, development) measured on an ecological time scale. Our review revealed that NCE were integral to explaining lynx-hare population dynamics in boreal forests, cascading effects of top predators in Wisconsin lakes, and cascading effects of killer whales and sea otters on kelp forests in nearshore marine habitats. The relative roles of consumption and NCE of wolves on moose and consequent indirect effects on plant communities of Isle Royale depended on climate oscillations. Nonconsumptive effects have not been explicitly tested to explain the link between planktonic alewives and the size structure of the zooplankton, nor have they been invoked to attribute keystone predator status in intertidal communities or elsewhere. We argue that both consumption and intimidation contribute to the total effects of keystone predators, and that characteristics of keystone consumers may differ from those of predators having predominantly NCE. Nonconsumptive effects are often considered as an afterthought to explain observations inconsistent with consumption-based theory. Consequently, NCE with the same sign as consumptive effects may be overlooked, even though they can affect the magnitude, rate, or scale of a prey response to predation and can have important management or conservation implications. Nonconsumptive effects may underlie other classic paradigms in ecology, such as delayed density dependence and predator-mediated prey coexistence. Revisiting classic studies enriches our understanding of predator-prey dynamics and provides compelling rationale for ramping up efforts to consider how NCE affect traditional predator-prey models based on consumption, and to compare the relative magnitude of consumptive and NCE of predators.     

Population structure of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Symbiodinium</Emphasis> sp. associated with the common sea fan, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorgonia ventalina</Emphasis>, in the Florida Keys across distance,depth, and time

Numerous marine invertebrates form endosymbiotic relationships with dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium. However, few studies have examined the fine-scale population structure of these symbionts. Here, we describe the genetic structure of Symbiodinium type “B1/B184” inhabiting the gorgonian Gorgonia ventalina along the Florida Keys. Six polymorphic microsatellite loci were utilized to examine 16 populations along the Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys spanning a range of ~200 km. Multiple statistical tests detected significant differentiation in 54–92% of the 120 possible pairwise comparisons between localities, suggesting low levels of gene flow in these dinoflagellates. In general, populations clustered by geographic region and/or reefs in close proximity. Some of the sharpest population differentiation was detected between Symbiodinium from deep and shallow sites on the same reef. In spite of the high degree of population structure, alleles and genotypes were shared among localities, indicating some connectivity between Symbiodinium populations associated with G. ventalina. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Gametogenic and reproductive cycles of the sea anemone, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Entacmaea quadricolor</Emphasis>

Host sea anemones are ecologically important as they provide habitat for obligate symbiotic anemonefish in many areas of the Indo-Pacific. Despite their importance, no information is available on their gametogenic cycles. This study aimed to address this lack of knowledge by determining the gametogenic cycles of Entacmaea quadricolor. Gonad samples were taken from January 2003 to February 2005 at North Solitary Island, Solitary Islands Marine Park, Australia using a specially developed non-lethal field biopsy sampling technique. Sampling was done 17 times during the study period, with 15–20 individuals being sampled on each occasion. Samples were examined prior to fixation, and then histologically sectioned to determine the reproductive activity of each individual. Female anemones were significantly more abundant than males, and had asynchronous oocyte development both within and among individuals. Male anemones showed a single annual cycle of spermary growth, development and spawning. Data from the 26-month study indicated that spawning occurred in the austral summer and autumn between January and April, which coincided with the observed spawning periods that have previously been documented for this species in outdoor flow-through seawater tanks at the study location. The biopsy sampling technique used during this study provides an opportunity to gain a more thorough understanding of the gametogenic cycles and sexual pattern of host sea anemones throughout their distribution.     

Mechanisms of nonlethal predator effect on cohort size variation: ecological and evolutionary implications

Understanding the factors responsible for generating size variation in cohorts of organisms is important for predicting their population and evolutionary dynamics. We group these factors into two broad classes: those due to scaling relationships between growth and size (size-dependent factors), and those due to individual trait differences other than size (size-independent factors; e.g., morphology, behavior, etc.). We develop a framework predicting that the nonlethal presence of predators can have a strong effect on size variation, the magnitude and sign of which depend on the relative influence of both factors. We present experimental results showing that size-independent factors can strongly contribute to size variation in anuran larvae, and that the presence of a larval dragonfly predator reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Further, a review of a number of experiments shows that the effect of this predator on relative size variation of a cohort ranged from negative at low growth rates to positive at high growth rates. At high growth rates, effects of size-dependent factors predominate, and predator presence causes an increase in the scaling of growth rate with size (larger individuals respond less strongly to predator presence than small individuals). Thus predator presence led to an increase in size variation. In contrast, at low growth rates, size-independent factors were relatively more important, and predator presence reduced expression of these size-independent factors. Consequently, predator presence led to a decrease in size variation. Our results therefore indicate a further mechanism whereby nonlethal predator effects can be manifest on prey species performance. These results have strong implications for both ecological and evolutionary processes. Theoretical studies indicate that changes in cohort size variation can have profound effects on population dynamics and stability, and therefore the mere presence of a predator could have important ecological consequences. Further, changes in cohort size variation can have important evolutionary implications through changes in trait heritability.     

The Estuarine Component of the Us E.P.A.'S Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program

The US Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development has initiated the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) to monitor status and trends in the condition of the nation's near coastal waters, forests, wetlands, agro-ecosystems, surface waters, deserts and rangelands. the programme is also intended to evaluate the effectiveness of Agency policies at protecting ecological resources occurring in these systems. Monitoring data collected for all ecosystems will be integrated for regional and national status and trends assessments. the near coastal component of EMAP consists of estuaries, coastal waters, and the Great Lakes. Near coastal ecosystems have been regionalized and classified, and an integrated sampling strategy has been developed. EPA and NOAA have agreed to coordinate and, to the extent possible, integrate the near coastal component of EMAP with the NOAA National Status and Trends Program. A demonstration project was conducted in estuaries of the mid-Atlantic region (Chesapeake Bay to Cape Cod) in the summer of 1990. in 1991, monitoring continued in mid-Atlantic estuaries and was initiated in estuaries of a portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Preliminary results indicate: there are no insurmountable logistical problems with sampling on a regional scale; several of the selected indicators are practical and sensitive on the regional scale; and an efficient effort in future years will provide valuable information on condition of estuarine resources at regional scales.     

Long‐term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the psychological well‐being of evacuees

Hurricane Katrina of August 2005 forced more than one million people to evacuate the Gulf Coast of the United States. This study examines the psychological health and well‐being of a subset of evacuees to determine the prevalence of ongoing mental health problems. Interviews were conducted with 101 adults who evacuated to Louisville, Kentucky, and were living in the state at the one‐year anniversary of the event or had recently returned to the Gulf Coast. The psychological health and well‐being of respondents was evaluated using several well‐validated measures. More than one‐half met the criteria for post‐traumatic stress disorder and a majority were suffering from depression and anxiety. The mean quality of life score was 0.6 on a scale from 0–1, suggesting that adaptation and return to pre‐hurricane well‐being had not occurred 12 months after the storm. The potential for long‐term psychological damage exists in this sample of Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Results suggest other evacuees may also be at heightened risk.     

Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity in the Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is characterized by a high variation in landform types and there are complex interactions between land, water and the atmosphere which dramatically affect the distribution of biota. Biodiversity depends upon the intensity, predictability and scale of these interactions. Observations, as well as predictions of large-scale climate models which include ocean circulation, reveal an anomalous cooling of northeastern Canada in recent decades, in contrast to the overall significant increase in average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from models are necessary to forecast the change in the treeline in the 21st century which may lead to a major loss of tundra. The rate of change in vegetation in response to climate change is poorly understood. The treeline in central Canada, for example, is showing infilling with trees, and in some locations, northerly movement of the boundary. The presence of sea ice in Hudson Bay and other coastal areas is a major factor affecting interactions between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Loss of ice and therefore hunting of seals by polar bears will reduce bear and arctic fox populations within the region. In turn, this is likely to have significant effects on their herbivorous prey populations and forage plants. Further, the undersurface of sea ice is a major site for the growth of algae and marine invertebrates which in turn act as food for the marine food web. A rise in sea-level may flood coastal saltmarsh communities leading to changes in plant assemblages and a decline in foraging by geese and other consumers. The anomalous cooling in the eastern Arctic, primarily in late winter and early spring, has interrupted northern migration of breeding populations of geese and ducks and led to increased damage to vegetation in southern arctic saltmarshes as a result of foraging. It is likely that there has been a significant loss of invertebrates in those areas where the vegetation has been destroyed. Warming will have major effects on permafrost distribution and on ground-ice resulting in a major destabilization of slopes and slumping of soil, and disruption of tundra plant communities. Disruption of peat and moss surfaces lead to loss of insulation, an increase in active-layer depth and changes in drainage and plant assemblages. Increases of UV-B radiation will strongly affect vulnerable populations of both plants and animals. The indigenous peoples will face major changes in life style, edibility of food and health standards, if there is a significant warming trend. The great need is for information which is sensitive to the changes and will assist in developing an understanding of the complex interactions of the arctic biota, human populations and the physical environment.     

Managing Endangered Species Within the Use–Preservation Paradox: The Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) as a Tourism Attraction

A significant challenge to wildlife managers in tourism settings is to provide visitors with opportunities to observe rare and endangered wildlife while simultaneously protecting the target species from deleterious impacts. Nearly 100,000 people annually visit Crystal River, Florida, USA to observe and swim with the Florida manatee, an endangered species. This research aimed to investigate and describe human-manatee interactions in a tourism context, to understand the salient issues related to such interactions as identified by stakeholders, and to recommend a course of action to address multiple interests in the planning and management of human-manatee interactions. Five issues were identified by all stakeholder groups: water quality, harassment, density and crowding, education, and enforcement. Currently, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which is responsible for manatee management, does not have mechanisms in place to manage the tourism component of the manatee encounter. Although a regulatory approach can be taken, a better approach would be to create an organization of tour operators to establish "best practices" that reflect the goal of the managing agency to enhance manatee protection (and thus ensure their livelihood) and to enhance the visitor experience.