Fine particles and oxidant pollution: developing an agenda for cooperative research

This paper describes a background for the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) cooperative program integrating studies of O3 and PM2.5. It discusses several important aspects for rationalizing NARSTO's trinational investigative approach, including (1) an outlook on the state of knowledge about fine particles in the troposphere and their origins in Canada, Mexico, and the United States; (2) the need for enhancement and strengthening of key field measurements in relation to tropospheric chemistry and a health effects component; and (3) the use of a central theme for advancing air quality modeling using evolving techniques to integrate and guide key process-oriented field campaigns. The importance of organizing a scientific program to acquire "policy-relevant" information is stressed, noting cooperative research directions that address combined PM2.5 and O3 issues, illustrated through exploration of hypothetical pathways of PM2.5 response to choices of O3 and PM precursor emission reductions. The information needed for PM2.5 research is noted to intersect in many cases with those of O3, but diverge in other cases. Accounting for these distinctions is important for developing NARSTO's strategy over the next decade.     

Interlocks for first offenders: effective?

OBJECTIVE: Vehicle interlocks have been shown to effectively reduce the recidivism of multiple driving-while-impaired (DWI) offenders; however, the evidence for their effectiveness with first offenders has been mixed. Two Canadian studies found that the installation of an interlock reduced first DWI recidivism, but U.S. studies in West Virginia and California failed to find a significant reduction in recidivism for first DWI offenders in interlock programs. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which such devices were effective with first offenders in New Mexico. METHODS: This study compared 1,461 first offenders, who installed interlocks in New Mexico between January 1, 2003, and December 1, 2005, with 17,562 first offenders convicted during the same period who did not install the units. Cox multivariate proportional hazards regression (CMVPHR) was used to compare recidivism rates during three periods: while the interlock was on the vehicles of offenders who installed them, after those offenders removed the units until the end of the study period (approximately 2 years), and for the combined period (both while the interlock was installed and after it was removed). RESULTS: While the device was on the vehicles of the interlock group, their recidivism rate, 2.6% per year of exposure, was significantly less than the 7.1% per year rate of the comparison group (CMVPHR hazard ratio = 0.39, p < 0.0001). After the device was removed, the annualized recidivism rate of the interlock group increased to 4.9% per year of exposure, which was less than the 6.7% rate of the comparison group, but the hazard ratio was not statistically significant (CMVPHR hazard ratio = 0.82, p = 0.16). When the combined periods (interlock on and off) were considered, the interlock group had a recidivism rate of 3.9% per year, which again was significantly lower than the 6.8% rate for the comparison group (CMVPHR hazard ratio = 0.61, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The study provides evidence that interlocks are as effective with first offenders (approximately 60% reduction in recidivism when on the vehicle) as they are for multiple offenders. In addition, the benefits of requiring an interlock for first offenders exceed the costs by a factor of three.     

Tug-of-war over reproduction in a cooperatively breeding cichlid

In group-living animals, dominants may suppress subordinate reproduction directly and indirectly, thereby skewing reproduction in their favour. In this study, we show experimentally that this ability (‘power’) is influenced by resource distribution and the body size difference between unrelated dominants and subordinates in the cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher. Reproduction was strongly skewed towards the dominant female, due to these females producing more and larger clutches and those clutches surviving egg eating better than those of subordinate females, but was not so when subordinates defended a patch. If breeding shelters were provided in two patches, subordinate females were more likely to exclusively defend a patch against the dominant female and breed, compared to when the same breeding resource was provided in one patch. Relatively large subordinate females were more likely to defend a patch and reproduce. Females also directly interfered with each other’s reproduction by eating the competitors’ eggs, at which dominants were more successful. Although dominant females benefited from subordinate females due to alloparental care and an increase in egg mass, they also showed costs due to reduced growth in the presence of subordinates. The results support the view that the dominant’s power to control subordinate reproduction determines reproductive partitioning, in agreement with the predictions from tug-of-war models of reproductive skew.     

A comparative performance evaluation of the AURAMS and CMAQ air-quality modelling systems

A harmonized comparative performance evaluation of A Unified Regional Air-quality Modelling System (AURAMS) v1.3.1b and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) v4.6 air-quality modelling systems was conducted on the same North American grid for July 2002 using the same emission inventories, emissions processor, and input meteorology.Comparison of AURAMS- and CMAQ-predicted O₃ concentrations against hourly surface measurement data showed a lower normalized mean bias (NMB) of 20.7% for AURAMS versus 46.4% for CMAQ. However, AURAMS and CMAQ had more similar normalized mean errors (NMEs) of 46.9% and 54.2%, respectively. Both models did similarly well in predicting daily 1-h O₃ maximums; however, AURAMS performed better in calculating daily minimums. CMAQ's poorer performance for O₃ is partly due to its inability to correctly predict nighttime lows.Total PM_2.5 hourly surface concentration was under-predicted by both AURAMS and CMAQ with NMBs of ?10.4% and ?65.2%, respectively. However, as with O₃, both models had similar NMEs of 68.0% and 70.6%, respectively. In general, AURAMS performance was better than CMAQ for all major PM_2.5 species except nitrate and elemental carbon. Both models significantly under-predicted total organic aerosols (TOAs), although the mean AURAMS concentration was over four times larger than CMAQ's. The under-prediction of TOA was partly due to the exclusion of forest-fire emissions. Sea-salt aerosol made up approximately 50.2% of the AURAMS total PM_2.5 surface concentration versus only 6.2% in CMAQ when averaged over all grid cells. When averaged over land cells only, sea-salt still contributed 13.9% to the total PM_2.5 mass in AURAMS versus 2.0% in CMAQ.     

Fine Particles and Oxidant Pollution: Developing an Agenda for Cooperative Research

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a background for the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) cooperative program integrating studies of O₃ and PM_{2 5}. It discusses several important aspects for rationalizing NARSTO's trinational investigative approach, including (1) an outlook on the state of knowledge about fine particles in the troposphere and their origins in Canada, Mexico, and the United States; (2) the need for enhancement and strengthening of key field measurements in relation to tropospheric chemistry and a health effects component; and (3) the use of a central theme for advancing air quality modeling using evolving techniques to integrate and guide key process-oriented field campaigns. The importance of organizing a scientific program to acquire “policy-relevant” information is stressed, noting cooperative research directions that address combined PM_2.5 and O₃ issues, illustrated through exploration of hypothetical pathways of PM_2.5 response to choices of O₃ and PM precursor emission reductions. The information needed for PM_2.5 research is noted to intersect in many cases with those of O₃, but diverge in other cases. Accounting for these distinctions is important for developing NARSTO's strategy over the next decade.     

A Qualitative Approach to Evaluating the Anticipated Reliability of a Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Model for a Selected Application

ABSTRACT

Photochemical air quality simulation models are now used widely in evaluating the merits of alternative emissions control strategies on spatial scales from metropolitan to sub-continental. Greatly varying levels of resources have been available to support modeling, from relatively comprehensive databases and evaluation of performance to a paucity of aerometric data for developing model inputs. Where data are sparse, many alternative outcomes are consistent with the knowledge at hand. Where performance evaluation is inadequately supported, the probability of error may be high. In each instance, uncertainties may be large when compared with the signal of interest, and thus confidence in the reliability of the model as an estimator of future air quality may come into question.

This paper proposes a qualitative procedure for assessing whether a particular application of a modeling system is likely to be potentially unreliable, suggesting that either (1) modification and further evaluation is needed, if supportable, prior to adoption for regulatory application; or (2) the model should not be used if improvement is not supportable. The procedure is proposed for use by policy-makers, staffs of public agencies, air quality managers, environmental staffs of industrial organizations, and other interested parties. The proposed use of the procedure is (1) to assess, a priori, whether a proposed application is likely to be judged questionable or unacceptably uncertain in outcome; and (2) to provide, a posteriori, a basis for judging quickly the likely quality of model performance. The procedure is presented with tropospheric ozone as the pollutant of concern. With adjustments, however, the procedure should be applicable for particu-late matter and other pollutants of interest.     

The Use of Ambient Measurements To Identify which Precursor Species Limit Aerosol Nitrate Formation

ABSTRACT

A thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to investigate the response of aerosol NO₃ to changes in concentrations of HNO₃, NH₃, and H₂SO₄. Over a range of temperatures and relative humidities (RHs), two parameters provided sufficient information for indicating the qualitative response of aerosol NO₃. The first was the excess of aerosol NH₄ ⁺ plus gas-phase NH₃ over the sum of HNO₃, particulate NO₃, and particulate SO₄ ^2- concentrations. The second was the ratio of particulate to total NO₃ concentrations. Computation of these quantities from ambient measurements provides a means to rapidly analyze large numbers of samples and identify cases in which inorganic aerosol NO₃ formation is limited by the availability of NH₃. Example calculations are presented using data from three field studies. The predictions of the indicator variables and the equilibrium model are compared.     

Behavioral adjustments of a pipefish to bacterial Vibrio challenge

Animals can profit from increasing temperatures by prolonged breeding seasons and faster growth rates. However, these fitness benefits are traded off against higher parasite load and increased virulence of temperature-sensitive pathogens. In thermally stratified habitats, behavioral plasticity can allow hosts to choose the optimal temperature to enhance individual fitness and to escape parasite pressure. To test this idea, we performed a temperature choice experiment with the host–parasite system of the sex-role reversed broad-nosed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle) and its bacterial pathogen Vibrio spp. In this species, pregnant males are expected to face a trade-off between shortening their brooding period in warm water and decreasing the effect of the infection in cold water. We found that exposure to Vibrio changed the temperature preference for both pregnant and nonpregnant males, as well as females compared to nonchallenged fish that tended to prefer warm water. This study shows that behavioral plasticity is one option for avoidance of higher bacterial prevalence, as expected due to rising ocean temperatures.