Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Effects of recreational disturbance on tidal wetlands: supporting the importance of undisturbed roosting sites for waterbird conservation

In coastal wetlands, the increasing level of disturbance from recreational activities could threaten waterbird populations, which overall are showing decreasing trends. Despite the crucial contribution of waterbirds to biodiversity, empirical studies measuring the effects of disturbance on them remain scarce, especially in terms of the impact upon their roosting sites. We developed an experimental treatment to measure the effects of a pedestrian walking on a site used by overwintering waterbirds in a wetland of international importance. We registered 156 events (88 at high tide) of flushing birds, totaling 4,018 individuals. Each treatment drove the flushing of 1?C5?% of the wintering populations of nearly all species present during high tide. In addition, 1.5?% of the Eurasian curlew wintering population was driven to change site. All the effects were found to be reduced during other tidal periods. Therefore, allowing recreational use in a previously undisturbed area can systematically increase daily energy expenditure of significant percentages of different waterbird populations during high tide, and even cause birds to avoid a site completely. These effects will probably be even worse given that our results were derived only from a disturbance source of low magnitude and frequency. We recommend that, prior to developing recreational areas close to the shoreline, coastal wetland managers should study the habitat use of waterbirds during high tide in relation to total waterbird populations using the wetland.     

Normalisation models for accounting for fat content in stable isotope measurements in salmonid muscle tissue

Stable isotope analysis is increasingly used in ecological studies. Because lipid content influences δ¹³C, lipids should be removed from lipid-rich samples before δ¹³C analysis. To account for differences in δ¹³C arising from differences in lipid content, relationships between lipid content, C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C with lipid removal can be used to normalise lipid content to uniform levels. We investigate these relationships for salmonid muscle and evaluate the suitability of previously published normalisation equations for these fish. Salmonids with a wide range of condition (muscle lipid content = 3–35% of dry weight) were considered. There were no consistent relationships between lipid content or C:N ratio and Δδ¹⁵N. There were linear relationships between C:N ratio and lipid content (L = −16.53 + 6.27 × C:N); C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = −1.87 + 0.65 × C:N); and lipid content and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = 0.01 + 0.10 × L), which should be used on salmonid stable isotope studies.     

Bioluminescence in the high Arctic during the polar night

This study examines the composition and activity of the planktonic community during the polar night in the high Arctic Kongsfjord, Svalbard. Our results are the first published evidence of bioluminescence among zooplankton during the Arctic polar night. The observations were collected by a bathyphotometer detecting bioluminescence, integrated into an autonomous underwater vehicle, to determine the concentration and intensity of bioluminescent flashes as a function of time of day and depth. To further understand community dynamics and composition, plankton nets were used to collect organisms passing through the bathyphotometer along with traditional vertical net tows. Additionally, using a moored bathyphotometer closed to the sampling site, the bioluminescence potential itself was shown not to have a diurnal or circadian rhythm. Rather, our results provide evidence for a diel vertical migration of bioluminescent zooplankton that does not correspond to any externally detectable changes in illumination.     

Individual deviation from behavioural correlations: a simple approach to study the evolution of behavioural syndromes

The study of correlations between different behaviours in a population—referred to as behavioural syndromes—has begun to flourish during recent years. However, the evolutionary mechanisms that cause behavioural traits to vary non-independently from each other are still poorly understood. Here, we bring behavioural syndromes into a new perspective, in which the phenomenon is regarded at the individual level and on a continuous scale instead of as a population-level presence/absence trait. As the correlation between behaviours is never perfect (i.e. r < 1), individuals are likely to vary in how consistently they behave. Therefore, we can predict that if behavioural syndromes at the population level are results of natural selection, the consistency in a suite of behaviours—and not the behavioural configuration per se—should be heritable and involve fitness advantages at the individual level. We define a variable that describes the individual deviation from the hypothetical perfect correlation predicted by the syndrome. The use of such a variable depicting the consistency of behaviours of individuals allows us to make solid evolutionary inferences about correlated behaviours from patterns of individual instead of population variation. We suggest that, by adopting the concept of syndrome deviation, understanding the evolution of behavioural syndromes and, in particular, testing competing evolutionary hypotheses about the origin of behavioural syndromes becomes possible in a more rigorous manner than before.     

Triangulation based inclusion probabilities: a design-unbiased sampling approach

A probabilistic sampling approach for design-unbiased estimation of area-related quantitative characteristics of spatially dispersed population units is proposed. The developed field protocol includes a fixed number of 3 units per sampling location and is based on partial triangulations over their natural neighbors to derive the individual inclusion probabilities. The performance of the proposed design is tested in comparison to fixed area sample plots in a simulation with two forest stands. Evaluation is based on a general approach for areal sampling in which all characteristics of the resulting population of possible samples is derived analytically by means of a complete tessellation of the areal sampling frame. The example simulation shows promising results. Expected errors under this design are comparable to sample plots including a much greater number of trees per plot.     

Optical fibers for transmission of information

This article is meant to provide an overview on light and information transmission through glass fibers, the most important methods of fiber fabrication, and some examples of present-day applications.     

Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change

The use of assimilation tools for satellite validation requires true estimates of the accuracy of the reference data. Since its inception, the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) has provided systematic lidar measurements of ozone and temperature at several places around the world that are well adapted for satellite validations. Regular exercises have been organised to ensure the data quality at each individual site. These exercises can be separated into three categories: large scale intercomparisons using multiple instruments, including a mobile lidar; using satellite observations as a geographic transfer standards to compare measurements at different sites; and comparative investigations of the analysis software. NDSC is a research network, so each system has its own history, design, and analysis, and has participated differently in validation campaigns. There are still some technological differences that may explain different accuracies. However, the comparison campaigns performed over the last decade have always proved to be very helpful in improving the measurements. To date, more efforts have been devoted to characterising ozone measurements than to temperature observations. The synthesis of the published works shows that the network can potentially be considered as homogeneous within +/-2% between 20-35 km for ozone and +/-1 K between 35-60 km for temperature. Outside this altitude range, larger biases are reported and more efforts are required. In the lower stratosphere, Raman channels seem to improve comparisons but such capabilities were not systematically compared. At the top of the profiles, more investigations on analysis methodologies are still probably needed. SAGE II and GOMOS appear to be excellent tools for future ozone lidar validations but need to be better coordinated and take more advantage of assimilation tools. Also, temperature validations face major difficulties caused by atmospheric tides and therefore require intercomparisons with the mobile systems, at all sites.