Shapes of simulated fires in discrete fuels

Simulation models are used to examine the possible effects of discrete fuel distributions and of several fire-spread mechanisms on fire shapes. Two postulated fire spread mechanisms —heat accumulation and flame contact—are shown to yield near-ellipses in continuous fuels, but a wide range of shapes in discrete and very patchy fuels. The alternative shapes include ovoids, “tear-drop” (with the ignition point at varying positions on the major axis), and straight lines. Simulated fires in discrete, patchy fuels are less regular in shape than in uniform and continuous fuels and show little or no backburning. The results may explain certain observed differences between wildfire shapes that occur in different environments and at different burning intensities.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

The impact of a nationwide effort to reduce airbag-related deaths among children: an examination of fatality trends among younger and older age groups

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of a nationwide response to emerging airbag-related deaths among children. This response, implemented in 1996, focused on moving children to a rear seat and increasing proper restraint usage. METHOD: Fatality trends from 1992 through 1996 and from 1996 through 2003 were examined for younger children (ages 0-3) and for older children (ages 4-12). RESULTS: Prior to 1997, a steady reduction in unrestrained deaths (among younger children) was offset by increases in restrained deaths (among younger and older children), increases in rear-seat deaths (among younger children), and increases in front-seat deaths (among older children). After 1996, there were significant decreases in fatalities in both age groups, with larger and more immediate reductions among the younger children. The largest reductions were immediately after 1996, when younger-child deaths declined by 16%, and after 1999, when deaths among both age groups declined by about 16%. CONCLUSIONS: The immediate reduction in front-seat deaths among younger children, particularly infants, appears to have been closely associated with the nationwide public information efforts implemented in 1996. Later reductions in front-seat and unrestrained deaths, among both younger and older children, were likely associated with the combination of legislative, enforcement, and public information programs, which increased after 1999. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings suggest that a large expenditure of resources by public and private-sector organizations after 1996 resulted in the prevention of hundreds of deaths among young children. In addition, the results provide insights with regard to the categories of deaths most affected by such programs and issues that deserve additional attention.     

Feedbacks between bivalve density, flow, and suspended sediment concentration on patch stable states

We explore the role of biophysical feedbacks occurring at the patch scale (spatial scale of tens of meters) that influence bivalve physiological condition and affect patch stability by developing a numerical model for the pinnid bivalve, Atrina zelandica, in cohesive sediments. Simulated feedbacks involve bivalve density, flow conditions (assumed to be primarily influenced by local water depth and peak current speed), suspended sediment concentration (evaluated through a balance between background concentration, deposition, and erosion), and changes in the physiology of Atrina derived from empirical study. The model demonstrates that high bivalve density can lead to skimming flow and to a concomitant decrease in resuspension that will affect suspended sediment concentration over the patch directly feeding back on bivalve physiology. Consequently, for a given flow and background suspended sediment load, the stability of a patch directly depends on the size and density of bivalves in the patch. Although under a range of conditions patch stability is ensured independently of bivalve density, simulations clearly indicate that sudden changes in bivalve density or suspended sediment concentration can substantially affect patch structure and lead to different stable states. The model highlights the role of interactions between organisms, flow, and broader scale environmental conditions in providing a mechanistic explanation for the patchy occurrence of benthic suspension feeders.     

The estimated reduction in the odds of loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles equipped with electronic stability control

INTRODUCTION: Using data from the NASS General Estimates System (GES), the method of induced exposure was used to assess the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on loss-of-control type crashes for sport utility vehicles. METHOD: Sport utility vehicles were classified into crash types generally associated with loss of control and crash types most likely not associated with loss of control. Vehicles were then compared as to whether ESC technology was present or absent in the vehicles. A generalized additive model was fit to assess the effects of ESC, driver age, and driver gender on the odds of loss of control. In addition, the effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were compared to effects on roads that were dry. RESULTS: Overall, the estimated percentage reduction in the odds of a loss-of-control crash for sport utility vehicles equipped with ESC was 70.3%. Both genders and all age groups showed reduced odds of loss-of-control crashes, but there was no significant difference between males and females. With respect to driver age, the maximum percentage reduction of 73.6% occurred at age 27. The positive effects of ESC on roads that were not dry were significantly greater than on roads that were dry.     

Seasonal and spatial patterns of metals at a restored copper mine site II. Copper in riparian soils and Bromus carinatus shoots

Soil and plants were sampled throughout winter and spring near a perennial stream traversing a restored mine site in a winter-rainy climate. Within 1m of an acidic reach of the stream, soil had pH 3-5 and 50-100 microg/g "bioavailable" copper (extractable with 0.01 M CaCl2). Soil 2-3 m from the stream had pH 5-8 and lower (less than 3 microg/g) bioavailable copper. "Oxide-bound" copper (extractable with 2N HCl) was 50-100 microg/g at most locations. Copper concentrations in the shoots of field-collected Bromus carinatus declined from 20 microg/g in winter to 2 microg/g in spring at all sampling sites. A similar temporal pattern was found in plants grown under controlled conditions. Thus B. carinatus has a developmental program for control of shoot copper concentration, causing a seasonally-varying pattern of copper phytoaccumulation over a large range of copper availability in the soil.     

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density–yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.