Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk‐based approach

Flat earthquake premiums are ‘uniformly’ set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk‐based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance.     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

An assessment of attraction toward affirmative action organizations: investigating the role of individual differences

Our study investigated applicant characteristics in response to organizations incorporating an affirmative action policy (AAP) statement in recruitment material. Study participants (N = 217; White upper‐level management students) randomly received recruitment material containing one of three statements (e.g., affirmative action, equal employment opportunity (EEO), or no statement regarding affirmative action or EEO) and were asked to evaluate the attractiveness of the organization publicizing the designated policy. Results indicated that individuals responded negatively to AAPs in recruitment material because of prejudice attitudes, the perceived unfairness of such programs (which we relate to equity sensitivity), or in an attempt to protect their own self‐interest (which we relate to general self‐efficacy). Additionally, individuals' equity sensitivity and general self‐efficacy both moderated the relationship between racial prejudice and organizational attractiveness. Specifically, the negative relationships between participants' prejudice attitudes and the attractiveness of organizations publicizing an affirmative action policy were stronger for benevolents (persons tolerant of situations where they are under‐rewarded) and for persons low in self‐efficacy. Implications of our findings for organizational recruitment practices are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Longitudinal‐Vertical Hydrodynamic and Turbidity Simulations for Prediction of Dam Reconstruction Effects in Asian Monsoon Area1

Abstract: This research investigates possible impacts of enlarged water body according to dam reconstruction on the hydrodynamics and water quality of the reservoir using a laterally averaged, two‐dimensional hydrodynamic and transport model, CE‐QUAL‐W2. The lake was formed by the artificial dam in 1983 for agricultural water supply and is currently under consideration of reconstruction so as to expand the volume of reservoir for flood control as well as water supply in downstream areas. To calibrate and validate the model, field‐collected data were compared with model predictions for water level fluctuations and water temperature during the years of 2001 (from January to December) and 2003 (from March to November). The model results showed a good agreement with field measurements both in calibration and verification. Utilizing the model, impacts of dam reconstruction on the thermal hydrodynamics and turbid current were predicted. From the model results, dam reconstruction limited the depth of thermal stratification below 10 meter and formed steep temperature gradient between epilimnion and hypolimnion. The restricted thermal stratification persisted up to the end of September. This result indicated that thermal stratification would become stronger during summer and stay longer after dam reconstruction. In addition, the restricted thermal stratification caused vertical circulation of water mixing lower than 10 meter and isolated the upper water layer from the lower water layer which increased the volume of hypolimnetic water with low temperature. The vertical circulation near the surface also mitigated propagation of density plume within the depth of 10 m which would remain the hypolimnetic water clean.     

Removal of an airborne low volatility metal under fuel-rich and fuel lean conditions through condensation onto soot and/or sorbent particles.

The removal by a sorbent of a low volatility heavy metal, barium, from a combustor exhaust stream was investigated experimentally. The barium was introduced into the gas phase through a combustion process simulating incineration of waste materials. Sorbent- and metal-feed-rate, temperature and air intake were varied to study the impact on the gas-to-particle conversion and the metal condensation process. Peak temperature and subsequent temperature drop were found to be the dominant factors affecting the condensation process. Fuel-rich and fuel-lean conditions result in lower peak temperatures and a more rapid temperature drop relative to stoichiometric conditions. Since the metal vapor saturation pressure falls exponentially with temperature a larger condensation rate was observed, as long as nucleation was suppressed. Fuel-rich conditions promote the formation of soot particles. These particles function as sites for subsequent metal-species condensation. Chlorine was injected into the flow, to study the effect on metal vaporization. Chlorine promoted the volatilization of barium and therefore the subsequent condensation capture was made more effective.     

Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management1

Kang, Min‐Goo and Gwang‐Man Lee, 2011. Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):813‐827. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00559.x Abstract: To evaluate water resources sustainability at the watershed scale within a river basin’s context, the Water Resources Sustainability Evaluation Model is developed. The model employs 4 criteria (economic efficiency, social equity, environmental conservation, and maintenance capacity) and has 16 indicators, integrating them using their relative weights. The model is applied to evaluate the water resources sustainability of watersheds in the Geum River basin, South Korea. A geographic information system is employed to efficiently build a database for the indicators, and the values of the indicators are normalized using the probability distribution functions fitted to the datasets of the indicators. The evaluation results show that, overall, the water resources sustainability of the watersheds in the upper basin is better than other areas due to the good environmental conditions and the dam management policies of South Korea. The analysis of the correlations among the model’s components and the comparison between the results of the model and the Water Poverty Index show that the model can provide reasonable evaluation results for the water resources sustainability of watersheds. Consequently, it is concluded that the model can be an effective tool for evaluating the states of water resource management from the perspective of sustainable development and provide a basis on which to create policies for improving any inadequacies in watersheds.     

Air quality monitoring system using lichens as bioindicators in Central Argentina

Air quality studies with bioindicators have not been well developed in South America. In the city of Córdoba, there are not permanent air pollutant measurements by equipment. In order to develop an air quality biomonitoring system using lichens, we applied a systematic sampling in the city of Córdoba, Argentina. A total of 341 plots were sampled in the area of the city which is a square of 24 × 24 km. In each sample plot we selected three phorophytes and estimated the frequency and cover of lichen species growing at 1.5 m on trunks. We also calculated the Index of Atmospheric Purity (IAP) using lichen frequencies. Maps with number of lichen species, cover values, and IAP were performed. The lichen community was described with nine species where Physcia undulata and Physcia endochryscea were the most frequent. Moreover, these two species were dominant in the community with the highest cover index. The central area of the city is considered a lichen desert with poor air quality. The southeast and northwest areas of the city showed the highest IAP values and number of species. In general, the city shows fair air quality and few areas with good and very good air quality.     

Multi-level modelling of chlorination by-product presence in drinking water distribution systems for human exposure assessment purposes

During drinking water treatment and distribution, chlorine reacts with organic matter occurring in water to form various chlorination by-products (CBPs) such as trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). This paper presents the occurrence of THMs and HAAs in different water distribution systems (DS) of the same region and their modelling for exposure assessment purposes. This study was conducted in eight DS supplying chlorinated water to the population of Québec City, Canada. These systems differ in type of water source (i.e. surface, ground or mixed water), in treatment applied at the plant, and in size and structure of the DS. Two spatio-temporal databases for THMs and HAAs were implemented, one for model development and the other for model validation. The analysis of the data demonstrates significant seasonal and spatial variations of these compounds. A multi-level statistical modelling approach was applied to estimate the ranges for occurrence of THMs and HAAs in the eight DS (i.e. a single model for the study region for each CBP species). The modelling approach integrates available or easily measurable parameters. For both THMs and HAAs, a two-level model considering a sampling-site random effect was selected among various models initially developed. The model capacity for estimating the presence of THMs and HAAs in drinking water and its usefulness for exposure assessment purposes in the studied region was demonstrated.     

Economic use value of the Belize marine ecosystem: Potential risks and benefits from offshore oil exploration

The announcement of plans for exploratory oil drilling at a number of offshore sites in Belize raised concerns about the risks associated with drilling, particularly given the socio‐economic importance of the marine ecosystem. The current economic value of fisheries and marine ecotourism is estimated, along with the potential revenue from offshore oil and potential economic losses stemming from oil pollution, under various assumptions on risk and uncertainty. Marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated to generate around US$ 183 million per year. Single‐year estimated maximum revenue is higher for oil extraction initially but quickly declines; during a 50 year (two generation) period, total discounted benefits from marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated at US$ 5.1 billion, compared to US$ 3.2 billion from offshore oil revenue. Following a hypothetical oil spill, discounted losses in marine fisheries and ecotourism due to perception and ecological impacts are estimated at US$ 912 million, with clean‐up costs and capital losses of US$ 6.1‐10.4 billion. Considering the short extraction life of oil resources compared to fisheries and ecotourism, the difference in benefits increases substantially in favour of the latter with a longer time horizon. A recent public referendum resulted in a 98% vote against oil exploration and a subsequent annulment of oil concessions pending environmental impact assessments.