Staying in place during times of change in Arctic Alaska: the implications of attachment,alternatives, and buffering

The relationship between stability and change in social-ecological systems has received considerable attention in recent years, including the expectation that significant environmental changes will drive observable consequences for individuals, communities, and populations. Migration, as one example of response to adverse economic or environmental changes, has been observed in many places, including parts of the Far North. In Arctic Alaska, a relative lack of demographic or migratory response to rapid environmental and other changes has been observed. To understand why Arctic Alaska appears different, we draw on the literature on environmentally driven migration, focusing on three mechanisms that could account for the lack of response: attachment, the desire to remain in place, or the inability to relocate successfully; alternatives, ways to achieve similar outcomes through different means; and buffering, the reliance on subsidies or use of reserves to delay impacts. Each explanation has different implications for research and policy, indicating a need to further explore the relative contribution that each makes to a given situation in order to develop more effective responses locally and regionally. Given that the Arctic is on the front lines of climate change, these explanations are likely relevant to the ways changes play out in other parts of the world. Our review also underscores the importance of further attention to the details of social dynamics in climate change impacts and responses.

     

DIFFERENCES IN WARM-SEASON,RAINSTORM-GENERATED STORMFLOWS FOR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS URBANIZED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation, streamflow, and population data were analyzed over the 1941–1990 period to determine whether changes in stormflows and net (post. minus pre-rainstorm) stormflows, associated with warm-season large rainstorms, were similar for two urbanized northeastern Illinois basins. Warm season large rainstorms were defined as April through October rainfall events in which ? 5.1 cm occurred in a 48-hour period over the basin. To minimize differences associated with varying large rainstorm amounts over time, the net sthrmflow for each event was divided by the large rainstorm amount. This ratio, Ui, indicated that the two urbanized basins experienced significant, yet different, increases (102 percent and 49 percent) in flow amount per centimeter of rainfall from 1941–1965 to 1966–1990. Results of a regression analysis between Ui and population showed that the increase in U_i per 100,000 increase in population ranged from 0.59 to 0.67 m³s^-1 per cm of rainfall for the two basins. These results demonstrate the varying degree of change that urban planners can expect in stormflows associated with large warm season rainstorms for areas undergoing urbanization.     

Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity

Many factors, including climate, resource availability, and habitat diversity, have been proposed as determinants of global diversity, but the links among them have rarely been studied. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we investigated direct and indirect effects of climate variables, host-plant richness, and habitat diversity on butterfly species richness across Britain, at 20-km grid resolution. These factors were all important determinants of butterfly diversity, but their relative contributions differed between habitat generalists and specialists, and whether the effects were direct or indirect. Climate variables had strong effects on habitat generalists, whereas host-plant richness and habitat diversity contributed relatively more for habitat specialists. Considering total effects (direct and indirect together), climate variables had the strongest link to butterfly species richness for all groups of species. The results suggest that different mechanistic hypotheses to explain species richness may be more appropriate for habitat generalists and specialists, with generalists hypothesized to show direct physiological limitations and specialists additionally being constrained by trophic interactions (climate affecting host-plant richness).     

Design and Operating Parameters for a Large Ambient Aerosol Chamber

Recent investigations of ambient aerosol behavior over urban areas have pointed out the need for controlled experimental data to link together field investigation results and computer simulation studies. This paper describes the design considerations, construction details and operating parameters of a large (8000 ft³) outside reaction chamber constructed in rural North Carolina. The chamber is triangular in cross-section, 20 ft wide, 20 ft high and 40 ft long, and is covered with clear 5 ml Teflon film. The outdoor location of the chamber permits the reaction volume to be exposed to the natural conditions of temperature and solar radiation. A recirculating air system allows the air in the chamber to be passed through an “absolute” fiberglas filter for adjustment of condensation nuclei concentration and also through driers for humidity adjustment. Internal fans are provided for mixing of the chamber contents without use of the recirculating system so that various degrees of turbulence can be approximated. A sampling line from the chamber passes directly to an instrument room, located directly under the chamber, where direct analyses for particle composition, concentration, and size, and gas composition and concentration are carried out. Parameters which can be varied in this system include number, size, distribution, and chemical composition of pre-existing nuclei, as well as humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and trace gas concentration and composition.     

Photochemical Conversion of NO to NO2 by Hydrocarbons in an Outdoor Chamber

Significant differences occur between results of chamber work conducted outdoors versus work conducted indoors under constant light intensity. Under outdoor conditions at constant [NO_X]_O, lower [HC]o resulted in lower [NO₂]_max and NO₂ dosage during the daylight hours. The percent reduction in [NO₂]_max was a function of the [HC]₀ reduction and the [NO_X]_O level. Under all experimental conditions the 10 hour N0₂ average to maximum N0₂ concentration ratio appeared to be constant at 0.73 during the daylight hours. A regression equation relating [NO_x]_max to [NO_X]_O, [HC]_O, and measures of solar radiation accounted for 92% of the variance in the data. Although there is unavoidable confoundment between [HC]₀ and solar radiation, the HC term in this regression equation can introduce ±20 % change in [N0₂]_max - This variation can be partially offset or enhanced by variations in solar radiation.     

Trapping phosphorus in runoff with a phosphorus removal structure

Reduction of phosphorus (P) inputs to surface waters may decrease eutrophication. Some researchers have proposed filtering dissolved P in runoff with P-sorptive byproducts in structures placed in hydrologically active areas with high soil P concentrations. The objectives of this study were to construct and monitor a P removal structure in a suburban watershed and test the ability of empirically developed flow-through equations to predict structure performance. Steel slag was used as the P sorption material in the P removal structure. Water samples were collected before and after the structure using automatic samples and analyzed for total dissolved P. During the first 5 mo of structure operation, 25% of all dissolved P was removed from rainfall and irrigation events. Phosphorus was removed more efficiently during low flow rate irrigation events with a high retention time than during high flow rate rainfall events with a low retention time. The six largest flow events occurred during storm flow and accounted for 75% of the P entering the structure and 54% of the P removed by the structure. Flow-through equations developed for predicting structure performance produced reasonable estimates of structure "lifetime" (16.8 mo). However, the equations overpredicted cumulative P removal. This was likely due to differences in pH, total Ca and Fe, and alkalinity between the slag used in the structure and the slag used for model development. This suggests the need for an overall model that can predict structure performance based on individual material properties.