Incorporating governance influences into social-ecological system models: a case study involving biodiversity conservation

Addressing environmental problems requires sophisticated approaches to complexity and uncertainty. Conceptual models are increasingly used to improve understanding of complex system interactions. However, cursory treatment of governance limits their analytical potential. This study included governance considerations in a social-ecological system model of biodiversity conservation in the Tasmanian Midlands (Australia). Effectiveness of engagement processes and conservation programme longevity were identified as critical governance influences. The conceptual representation of this system enabled exploration of how governance influences interact with social drivers (e.g. landholder engagement in conservation practices) to modify the effect of biophysical drivers (e.g. land use) on biodiversity outcomes. Such a methodology provides essential information for identifying and guiding governance related points of intervention.     

Reducing Nitrogen Export from the Corn Belt to the Gulf of Mexico: Agricultural Strategies for Remediating Hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen‐load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen‐load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen‐management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen‐management practices with innovative nitrogen‐removal practices such as tile‐drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream‐channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen‐management practices with nitrogen‐removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen‐removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen‐management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen‐removal practices at the landscape scale.     

New postcrania of Deccanolestes from the Late Cretaceous of India and their bearing on the evolutionary and biogeographic history of euarchontan mammals

Extant species of the supraordinal mammal clade Euarchonta belong to the orders Primates, Scandentia, or Dermoptera. The fossil record of euarchontans suggests that they underwent their initial radiation during the Paleocene (65–55 million years ago) in North America, Eurasia, and Africa. The time and place of origin is poorly resolved due to lack of definitive fossils of euarchontan stem taxa. We describe a fragmentary humerus and two fragmentary ulnae from the latest Cretaceous of India that bear significantly on this issue. The fossils are tentatively referred to Deccanolestes cf. hislopi due to their small size and the fact that Deccanolestes is the only eutherian dental taxon to have been recovered from the same locality. The new fossils are used to evaluate the existing behavioral hypothesis that Deccanolestes was arboreal, and the competing phylogenetic hypotheses that Deccanolestes is a stem eutherian versus a stem euarchontan. The humerus resembles those of euarchontans in possessing a laterally keeled ulnar trochlea, a distinct zona conoidea, and a spherical capitulum. These features also suggest an arboreal lifestyle. The ulnar morphology is consistent with that of the humerus in reflecting an arboreal/scansorial animal. Detailed quantitative comparisons indicate that, despite morphological correlates to euarchontan-like arboreality, the humerus of Deccanolestes is morphologically intermediate between those of Cretaceous “condylarthran” mammals and definitive Cenozoic euarchontans. Additionally, humeri attributed to adapisoriculids are morphologically intermediate between those of Deccanolestes and definitive euarchontans. If adapisoriculids are euarchontans, as recently proposed, our results suggest that Deccanolestes is more basal. The tentative identification of Deccanolestes as a basal stem euarchontan suggests that (1) Placentalia began to diversify and Euarchonta originated before the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary and (2) the Indian subcontinent, Eurasia, and Africa are more likely places of origin for Euarchonta than is North America.     

Investigation of spatial trends and neurochemical impacts of mercury in herring gulls across the Laurentian Great Lakes

Herring gulls (Larus argentatus) bioaccumulate mercury (Hg) but it is unknown whether they are exposed at levels of neurological concern. Here we studied brain tissues from gulls at five Great Lakes colonies and one non-Great Lakes colony during spring of 2001 and 2003. Total brain Hg concentrations ranged from 0.14 to 2.0 μg/g (dry weight) with a mean of 0.54 μg/g. Gulls from Scotch Bonnet Island, on the easternmost edge of the Great Lakes, had significantly higher brain Hg than other colonies. No association was found between brain Hg concentration and [3H]-ligand binding to neurochemical receptors (N-methyl-d-aspartate, muscarinic cholinergic, nicotinic cholinergic) or nicotinic receptor α-7 relative mRNA expression as previously documented in other wildlife. In conclusion, spatial trends in Hg contamination exist in herring gulls across the Great Lakes basin, and herring gulls accumulate brain Hg but not at levels associated with sub-clinical neurochemical alterations.     

A major increase in snake pipefish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Entelurus aequoreus</Emphasis>) in northern European seas since 2003: potential implications for seabird breeding success

Since the early 2000s routine fish surveys have recorded increasing numbers of snake pipefish, Entelurus aequoreus, in the northeast Atlantic. Fishermen and divers have also commented on this increase and pipefish have started to appear in the diet of seabirds and other marine predators. This paper collates information from these diverse sources and assesses the current status of snake pipefish. We found compelling evidence of a dramatic increase in the abundance of snake pipefish starting around 2003 and continuing up to the present (2006) and a range expansion northwards to Spitzbergen and the Barents Sea. Since 2004 snake pipefish have been increasingly recorded in the diet of many species of seabird breeding in colonies around the coast of the UK, and in Norway, Iceland and the Faeroe Islands. Information on the nutrient value of snake pipefish is currently lacking but their rigid, bony structure makes them difficult for young seabirds to swallow and there are numerous records of chicks choking to death. Thus, in the case of avian predators during the breeding season, it appears unlikely that increased abundance of snake pipefish will provide a useful alternative prey. The reason for the rapid and dramatic increase in numbers of snake pipefish is currently unclear but such events are characteristic of marine ecosystems and will almost certainly have an effect on food web dynamics.     

Sensitivity of ecological models to their climate drivers: statistical ensembles for forcing.

Global and regional numerical models for terrestrial ecosystem dynamics require fine spatial resolution and temporally complete historical climate fields as input variables. However, because climate observations are unevenly spaced and have incomplete records, such fields need to be estimated. In addition, uncertainty in these fields associated with their estimation are rarely assessed. Ecological models are usually driven with a geostatistical model's mean estimate (kriging) of these fields without accounting for this uncertainty, much less evaluating such errors in terms of their propagation in ecological simulations. We introduce a Bayesian statistical framework to model climate observations to create spatially uniform and temporally complete fields, taking into account correlation in time and space, spatial heterogeneity, lack of normality, and uncertainty about all these factors. A key benefit of the Bayesian model is that it generates uncertainty measures for the generated fields. To demonstrate this method, we reconstruct historical monthly precipitation fields (a driver for ecological models) on a fine resolution grid for a climatically heterogeneous region in the western United States. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of ecological models to the uncertainty associated with prediction of their climate drivers. To assess their numerical sensitivity to predicted input variables, we generate a set of ecological model simulations run using an ensemble of different versions of the reconstructed fields. We construct such an ensemble by sampling from the posterior predictive distribution of the climate field. We demonstrate that the estimated prediction error of the climate field can be very high. We evaluate the importance of such errors in ecological model experiments using an ensemble of historical precipitation time series in simulations of grassland biogeochemical dynamics with an ecological numerical model, Century. We show how uncertainty in predicted precipitation fields is propagated into ecological model results and that this propagation had different modes. Depending on output variable, the response of model dynamics to uncertainty in inputs ranged from uncertainty in outputs that matched that of inputs to those that were muted or that were biased, as well as uncertainty that was persistent in time after input errors dropped.     

An unintended experiment in fisheries science: a marine area protected by war results in Mexican waves in fish numbers-at-age

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are attaining increasing importance in the management of marine ecosystems. They are effective for conservation in tropical and subtropical areas (mainly coral and rocky reefs), but it is debated whether they are useful in the management of migratory fish stocks in open temperate regions. World War II created a large marine area within which commercial fishing was prevented for 6 years. Here we analyse scientific trawl data for three important North Sea gadoids, collected between 1928 and 1958. Using statistical models to summarise the data, we demonstrate the potential of MPAs for expediting the recovery of over-exploited fisheries in open temperate regions. Our age-structured data and population models suggest that wild fish stocks will respond rapidly and positively to reductions in harvesting rates and that the numbers of older fish in a population will react before, and in much greater proportion, than their younger counterparts in a kind of Mexican wave. Our analyses demonstrate both the overall increase in survival due to the lack of harvesting in the War and the form of the age-dependent wave in numbers. We conclude that large closed areas can be very useful in the conservation of migratory species from temperate areas and that older fish benefit fastest and in greater proportion. Importantly, any rise in spawning stock biomass may also not immediately result in better recruitment, which can respond more slowly and hence take longer to contribute to higher future harvestable biomass levels.     

Fishery Enhancement Reef Building Exercise

The constructive use of coal-fired power station waste products for building artificial reefs is being explored for the first time in the U.K. at present, the practice of sea dumping of raw pulverised fuel ash (PFA) from coal combustion is under review and the use of consolidated PFA blocks offers a possible alternative. the planned fitting of flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) plant in the U.K. will additionally produce large quantities of gypsum. to test the environmental compatability of such materials in marine structures, an experimental reef has been constructed off the central south coast of the U.K. Fifty tonnes of blocks made from different combinations of PFA, gypsum, FGD waste water sludge, cement and gravel using standard concrete as the control material, were deployed. the site selected is remote from prominent sea bed features in an area of flat sand with limited species variety.The preliminary studies leading to the licensing of this project included bioassay experiments with diatom cultures, field trials with test tiles and trace metal bioaccumulation studies the stages of consultation and licensing of the project are outlined.

Colonisation of the reef has been rapid, initially by shoaling fish, particularly by bib (Trisopterus luscus) then, within the first month, by representatives of the commercial crab and lobster species typical of the local natural rocky coast. After three months the epifauna and flora were well established. at this stage some 80 species of flora and fauna have been identified in association with the reef with no differentiation in colonisation apparent between the PFA/gypsum mixtures and the concrete control. the number of species far exceeds that of PFA powder dumping grounds. Analyses for heavy metal ions in the reef blocks after 2 months immersion have not shown any significant difference from the original composition.