Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Maternal dominance rank and lifetime survivorship of male and female rhesus monkeys

Summary The longitudinal survivorship of a group of free-ranging male and female rhesus monkeys from La Parguera, Puerto Rico, was analyzed. Males had lower age-specific survivorship than females. There were no differences in the survivorship of daughters of high- and low-ranking mothers and there was no correlation between total number of offspring born and maternal rank for females. However, the sons of low-ranking mothers had lower survivorship than the sons of high-ranking females. This sex-related difference in survivorship, in conjunction with other evidence, indicates that the average lifetime reproduction of sons of low-ranking females is lower than that of daughters and vice versa for offspring of high-ranking females.     

“Egg dumping” in lace bugs (Gargaphia solani,Hemiptera: Tingidae)

Summary Data are presented which document that females of the subsocial lace bug, Gargaphia solani lay eggs in the nests of conspecifics whenever the opportunity arises. Because of an inverse relationship between time invested in maternal care and fecundity, maternal behavior in G. solani is an ecologically expensive trait that is adaptive only in the face of heavy predation on eggs and nymphs. By facultatively utilizing the maternal defensive behavior of conspecifics, it is possible for egg donors to protect their progeny from predators without limiting fecundity. Whenever possible, females oviposit in recently established egg masses of conspecifics. While guarding their own eggs, egg recipients inadvertently protect the eggs of egg donors. Egg donors need not establish and guard their own masses as long as there are females with egg masses in the vicinity. Instead, egg donors are free to lay as many eggs as physiologically possible by avoiding long periods of maternal care.Published with the approval of the Director of the Delaware Agricultural Experiment Station as Miscellaneous Paper No. 1048, Contribution No. 544 of the Department of Entomology and Applied Ecology, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, USA     

Investigation of contact vacuuming for remediation of fungally contaminated duct materials

Environmental fungi become a potential Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) problem when adequate moisture and nutrients are present in building materials. Because of their potential to rapidly spread contamination throughout a building, ventilation system materials are of particular significance as potential microbial contamination sources. Current recommendations are to discard fibrous glass insulation that appears to be wet or moldy. Unfortunately, this advice is not always followed. Instead, cleaning is sometimes being used in buildings to remediate fibrous glass duct liner that is already contaminated with microbial growth. The objectives of this research program were to: 1) determine, under dynamic test conditions, whether fungal spore levels on heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) duct material surfaces could be substantially reduced by thorough vacuum cleaning, 2) evaluate whether subsequent fungal growth could be limited or contained by mechanical cleaning, and 3) provide data concerning the advisability of cleaning duct materials. The constant high relative humidity (RH) environment to which the test materials were exposed during this study was selected as a favorable growth environment that is frequently found in Southeastern United States HVAC systems. The results showed that, following cleaning, the levels of the two test fungi, A. versicolor and P. chrysogenum, recovered to preclean levels within 6 weeks. Therefore, mechanical cleaning by contact vacuuming alone was able to only temporarily reduce the surface fungal load. The current guidelines to discard contaminated materials should be followed.     

Immobilizing a light,nonaqueous phase liquid

A new technique has been developed to immobilize organic chemicals at a Superfund site. In the course of predesign studies in preparing the Remedial Design for the Pioneer Sand Superfund site in Pensacola, Florida, a light, nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) was discovered floating on the groundwater within the on-site landfill. The liquid, with a viscosity similar to SAE 20 motor oil, was made up of heavy organic chemicals and volatile organic chemicals (VOCs), but no pesticides or polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The volatiles present included toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes. Regulatory agencies expressed concern over the possibility of LNAPL migration and asked that a method of LNAPL immobilization be devised.     

WOODY VEGETATION AND RIPRAP STABILITY ALONG THE SACRAMENTO RIVER MILE 84.5–1191

ABSTRACT: Stability of vegetated and bare riprap revetments along a Sacramento River reach during the flood of record was assessed. Revetment damages resulting from the flood were identified using records provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and verified by contacts with local interests. Vegetation on revetments along a 35.6-mile reach was mapped using inspection records and stereo interpretation of aerial phoths taken shortly before and after the flood. A follow-up field inspection was conducted in September 1989. Revetment age, material, bank curvature, vegetation, and damage were mapped from a boat. Mapping results from both 1986 and 1989 were placed in a data base. About 70 percent of the bank line of the study reach was revetted. About two-thirds of the revetment was cobble; one-third was quarry stone. Revetment vegetation varied from none to large (> 50-inch diameter) cotton-woods. About 10 percent of the revetted bank line supported some type of woody vegetation. Damage rates for revetments supporting woody vegetation tended to be lower than for unvegetated revetments of the same age located on banks of similar curvature. Chisquared tests indicated damage rates were greater for older (pre-1950 construction) revetments, but were unable to detect differences based on vegetation or bank curvature. Research is needed to generate design criteria and construction techniques to allow routine use of woody plants in bank protection structures.     

RUNOFF VOLUME ESTIMATION USING GIS TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall runoff of six watersheds was modeled via the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number model in two ways: conventionally (manually) and via a geographic information system (GIS). Input data (elevation, soils, and landcover) were digital for the latter method. In contrast to previous studies, the GIS was ised for all phases of the modeling process, including watershed delineation and routing of runoff. A comparison between the two methods was consistent with results reported by others and indicates that the use of a GIS is an acceptable alternative to the conventional method for watersheds lacking relatively flat terrain. Given this limitation, the GIS method may prove advantageous over manual methods when study areas are large or numerous, runoff is modeled repetitively, alternative landcover scenarios are explored, or a digital database already exists for the study area.     

Short femur length associated with severe intrauterine growth retardation

Four fetuses with a femur measuring greater than two standard deviations below the mean compared with the biparietal diameter are presented. These four fetuses were subsequently determined to have severe intrauterine growth retardation and no evidence of skeletal dysplasias.     

Measurement of the fetal mandible—feasibility and construction of a centile chart

The prenatal diagnosis of micrognathia is usually based on a subjective impression of the size of the jaw when examining the fetal profile. We have constructed a centile chart for mandibular length between 12 and 27 post-menstrual weeks in a cross-sectional study of 184 fetuses. The application of this chart in clinical practice may permit a more objective diagnosis of micrognathia in the prenatal period.