What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

A comparative global assessment of potential negative emissions technologies

The paper summarises a global assessment of around 30 prospective negative emissions techniques (NETs) found in the literature. Fourteen techniques including direct air capture, BECCS, biochar, and ocean alkalinity enhancement are considered in more detail.The novel functional categorisation of NETs developed in the course of the assessment is set out and a comparative quantitative summary of the results is presented, focusing on the relative readiness, global capacity, costs and side-effects of the prospective NETs.Both technology specific and more generic potential limitations are discussed, notably those arising from energy requirements, from availability of geological storage capacity and from sustainable supply of biomass.Conclusions are drawn regarding the overall scope of NETs to contribute to safe carbon budgets, and challenges arising in the future governance of NETs, with particular reference to the potential role of carbon markets.     

Vegetation fire emissions and their impact on air pollution and climate

Gaseous and particulate emissions from vegetation fires substantially modify the atmospheric chemical composition, degrade air quality and can alter weather and climate. The impact of vegetation fire emissions on air pollution and climate has been recognised in the late 1970s. The application of satellite data for fire-related studies in the beginning of the 21th century represented a major break through in our understanding of the global importance of fires. Today the location and extent of vegetation fires, burned area and emissions released from fires are determined from satellite products even though many uncertainties persist. Numerous dedicated experimental and modeling studies contributed to improve the current knowledge of the atmospheric impact of vegetation fires. The motivation of this paper is to give an overview of vegetation fire emissions, their environmental and climate impact, and what improvements can be expected in the near future.     

Improving the farmland biodiversity value of riparian buffer strips: conflicts and compromises

The intensity of management of lowland grassland fields in the United Kingdom, coupled with the fact that such grasslands dominate much of the lowland landscape, means that there are now few opportunities for many plants, invertebrates, birds, or mammals to survive. The Scottish Agricultural College (SAC) has investigated whether fencing off the margins of such fields next to watercourses to control diffuse pollution has any positive impacts on biodiversity, based on assessments of vegetation composition and condition and structure of assemblages of invertebrates of importance as foodstuffs to farmland birds. Fencing watercourses increased the abundance of key groups of invertebrates. However, the invertebrate species diversity was not increased unless the margins were ≥ 5.4 m in width. Margins established in the study area to prevent access by livestock to watercourses or to enhance biodiversity are generally ≤ 2.6 m wide and are therefore unlikely to provide conditions for additional invertebrate species to use. The dense, tall swards within such margins are also unlikely to provide foraging opportunities for farmland birds. Management (such as low-intensity grazing by livestock in the margins) is essential to provide the conditions required for these groups, but this could conflict with the diffuse pollution mitigation aims. A compromise is proposed whereby limited autumn/winter grazing by livestock could be used to open the vegetation structure in the margins. Grazing by livestock at that time may be acceptable since it is not occurring in the period of main diffuse pollution concern (i.e., the fecal contamination of watercourses and bathing waters in the spring and summer). It is also essential that a landscape-scale approach is taken, driven by knowledge of the full needs of the species concerned, when deciding where best to target agri-environmental actions aimed at farmland bird conservation.