THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION ON CRITERION LOW STREAMFLOWS USED FOR DETERMINING TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOADS1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the possible impacts of global climate change on low streamflows in the Midwest, both directly, through lower precipitation, and indirectly, by rendering irrigation profitable in areas where it has found little application in the past. In the analysis presented here, streamflow data are altered to represent the effect of climate change and stream-supplied irrigation, and then used to estimate new values for two low-flow criteria, the one- and seven-day-ten-year low flows (₇Q₁₀ and ₁Q₁₀) under 20 climate change and irrigation scenarios. Additionally, the frequencies of violation of these two criteria, and multiple violations in a three-year period, are determined. Results show that the potential impact of the assumed climate change scenarios on low flow standards is substantial. A 25 percent decrease in mean precipitation results in a 63 percent reduction in design flow, even in the absence of irrigation. With irrigation, the reduction can be as much as 100 percent. The frequency of single violations of low flow criteria is found to increase several fold with irrigation. The frequency of multiple violations of low flow criteria in a three-year period is sensitive to climate change, increasing from around 20 percent to nearly 100 percent as the climate change becomes more severe.     

Levels and trends of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in camel milk (Camelus bactrianus and Camelus dromedarius) from Kazakhstan

To date, despite the fact it represents a very important part of the national dairy production, no data are available concerning the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in camel milk from the Republic of Kazakhstan. Selected PCDDs, PCDFs, and PCBs were measured in pools of milk from camels (n=15) located in various places of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Atyrau, Aralsk, Shymkent) and sampled at two different seasons for two different species (Camelus bactrianus and Camelus dromedarius). Non-dioxin-like (NDL-)PCB concentrations (6.3±2.7 ng g(-1) fat, median 5.1 ng g(-1) fat, range 0.6-17.4 ng g(-1) fat) were far below the maximum value of 40 ng g(-1) fat proposed by the EU. Dioxin-like (DL-)PCB concentrations (1.7±0.7 ng g(-1) fat, median 1.5 ng g(-1) fat, range 0.3-4.2 ng g(-1) fat) and the NDL-PCB to DL-PCB ratio (4.3) were similar to what is reported in EU for cow-based dairy products. PCB 52 and PCB 101 appeared to be proportionally more present in Kazakh camel milk samples (>60% of the sum of the 6 indicator NDL-PCBs) than in European cow milk samples (<10% of the sum of the 6 indicator NDL-PCBs), indicating possible differences in the route of exposure to PCBs in Kazakhstan. PCB 105 and PCB 118 appeared to be present at higher concentrations in camel milk (>80% of the sum of the 12 DL-PCBs). PCB 105, PCB 118 and PCB 156 were the major congeners for DL-PCBs, accounting for 92% of the sum of concentrations of DL-PCBs (88% for Belgian cows). In terms of TEQ, PCB 126 and PCB 118 are the major contributors and represent, respectively, 80% and 14% of the DL-PCB TEQWHO05 concentrations. No significant interracial or geographical trends were observed for NDL- and DL-PCB profiles. However, concentrations of all DL-PCBs appeared to be significantly higher for samples collected in Atyrau region. 2,3,7,8-TCDD level (mean 0.08±0.07 pg g(-1) fat, median 0.08 pg g(-1) fat, range 0.00-0.18 pg g(-1) fat, 60%>LOQs) were very low for all samples and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF was the major contributor (27%) to the PCDD/F TEQWHO05. Considering the total TEQWHO05 (sum of DL-PCBs and PCDD/Fs), DL-PCB and PCDD/F contributed for 73% and 27%, respectively. A decrease of only 1% of the total TEQ was observed when using the TEFWHO05 scale instead of the TEFWHO98 scale. Two samples collected in the region of Atyrau exceeded the EU maximum level value of 6.00 pg TEQWHO98 g(-1) fat (6.4 pg TEQWHO05 g(-1) fat and 6.9 pg TEQWHO05 g(-1) fat). Both samples exceeded the EU action level for the sum of DL-PCBs. Based on the fact that camel milk is used to prepare popular traditional fermented drinks like shubat, this suggests that the human exposure in the Caspian Sea region of Atyrau should be expected to be higher than in the other regions studied here.     

Probing emissions of military cargo aircraft: description of a joint field measurement Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program

To develop effective air quality control strategies for military air bases, there is a need to accurately quantify these emissions. In support of the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program project, the particulate matter (PM) and gaseous emissions from two T56 engines on a parked C-130 aircraft were characterized at the Kentucky Air National Guard base in Louisville, KY. Conventional and research-grade instrumentation and methodology were used in the field campaign during the first week of October 2005. Particulate emissions were sampled at the engine exit plane and at 15 m downstream. In addition, remote sensing of the gaseous species was performed via spectroscopic techniques at 5 and 15 m downstream of the engine exit. It was found that PM mass and number concentrations measured at 15-m downstream locations, after dilution-correction generally agreed well with those measured at the engine exhaust plane; however, higher variations were observed in the far-field after natural dilution of the downstream measurements was accounted for. Using carbon dioxide-normalized data we demonstrated that gas species measurements by extractive and remote sensing techniques agreed reasonably well.     

On a combined theory of pay level satisfaction

For decades, research on pay level satisfaction has focused on two theories and one approach: the direct link theory, the discrepancy theory, and the no‐difference‐scores approach. However, there are still unsolved puzzles facing pay level satisfaction research. We develop a combined theory to consider the impact of the interaction of reported pay and pay discrepancy. With this newly developed theory, we expect that (a) both reported pay and pay discrepancy have main effects on pay level satisfaction; (b) reported pay and pay discrepancy also interact with each other, in that the effect of pay discrepancy on pay level satisfaction decreases as pay level increases; (c) equitable payment is more related to pay level dissatisfaction when pay level is low; and (d) overpayment in general is related to pay level satisfaction, not dissatisfaction. An empirical study (N = 481) using four types of comparison standards was conducted, and the results supported our predictions. The findings of our study have important implications for both academic research and management practice.     

Liver lesions in demersal fishes near a large ocean outfall on the San Pedro Shelf, California

The prevalence of toxicopathic liver lesions in demersal fish on the San Pedro Shelf, California was determined for a 15-year period (1988–2003). Fish livers were sampled at fixed locations as part of the Orange County Sanitation Districts (OCSD) ocean monitoring program. Histopathological examination of selected fish liver tissues was studied to determine whether the wastewater discharge had affected fish health. The prevalence of toxicopathic lesion classes neoplasms (NEO), preneoplastic foci of cellular alteration (FCA), and hydropic vacuolation (HYDVAC) varied among species and locations. For all species sampled, severe lesions occurred in 6.2% of the fish examined (n = 7,694). HYDVAC (4.1%) was the most common toxicopathic lesion type followed by FCA (1.4%) and NEO (0.7%). HYDVAC occurred only in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus), accounting for 84.8% of the toxicopathic lesions for this species. Prevalence of HYDVAC, NEO, and FCA in white croaker was 15.2, 2.0, and 0.7%, respectively. The prevalence of HYDVAC and NEO in white croaker increased with age and size but there was no sexual difference. A linear regression model was used for hypothesis testing to account for significant differences in fish size (and age for croakers) at the different sampling locations. This analysis showed that for HYDVAC there was no spatial or location effect for lesion rate or size/age of onset. For NEO, the model predicted that white croaker near the wastewater outfall may acquire these lesions at a smaller size/younger age, and at a higher rate, than at other sites. However, this result may be biased due to the unequal size frequency distributions and the low prevalence of NEO in white croaker at the different sampling sites. Bigmouth sole (Hippoglossina stomata) had a prevalence of FCA and NEO of 1.3 and 0.35%, respectively, but the prevalence and distribution of lesions was too few for statistical testing. There was no sexual difference for lesion prevalence in hornyhead turbot (Pleuronichthys verticalis) and the prevalence of FCA and NEO was 3.4 and 0.37%, respectively. FCA prevalence increased with size in hornyhead turbot and there were no significant spatial differences for lesion rates and fish size at lesion onset. Overall, consistent spatial differences for lesion prevalence were not demonstrated and highlight the analytical difficulties of detecting a possible point source impact when the effect is rare, correlated with the size/age structure of the population, and may be caused by exposure to unknown multiple sources. Thus, the usefulness of liver histopathology as a point-source monitoring tool is best applied to where the spatial scale of impact generally exceeds the home range of the target species.     

Economics of place-based monitoring under the safe drinking water act, part III: performance evaluation of place-based monitoring strategies

The goals of environmental legislation and associated regulations are to protect public health, natural resources, and ecosystems. In this context, monitoring programs should provide timely and relevant information so that the regulatory community can implement legislation in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) of 1974 attempts to ensure that public water systems (PWSs) supply safe water to its consumers. As is the case with many other federal environmental statutes, SDWA monitoring has been implemented in relatively uniform fashion across the USA. In this three part series, we present over 30 years of evidence to demonstrate unique patterns in water quality contaminants over space and time, develop alternative place-based monitoring approaches that exploit such patterns, and evaluate the economic performance of such approaches to current monitoring practice. Part III: Place-based (PBA) and current SDWA monitoring approaches were implemented on test datasets (1995-2001) from 19 water systems and evaluated based on the following criteria: percent of total detections, percent detections above threshold values (e.g. 20, 50, 90% of MCL), and cost. The PBA outperformed the current SDWA monitoring requirements in terms of total detections, missed only a small proportion of detections below the MCL, and captured all detections above 50% of the MCL. Essentially the same information obtained from current compliance monitoring requirements can be gained at approximately one-eighth the cost by implementing the PBA. Temporal sampling strategies were implemented on test datasets (1995-2001) from four water systems and evaluated by the following criteria: parameter estimation, percent deviation from "true" 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and number of samples versus accuracy of the estimate. Non event-based (NEB) strategies were superior in estimating percentiles 1-50, but underestimated the higher percentiles. Event-based strategies were superior in estimating 95th and 99th percentiles, and required significantly fewer samples (than NEB strategies) to estimate the "true" 95th and 99th percentiles. Incorporation of place-based information significantly improves the performance of monitoring and temporal sampling strategies in the context of surface-influenced water systems in the state of Iowa. Application of similar methods to other areas and types of water systems would likely produce similar results. Compared to current SDWA monitoring, the place based approach allows for cost-effective, enhanced characterization of local contaminants of concern.     

Economics of place-based monitoring under the safe drinking water act, part II: Design and development of place-based monitoring strategies

The goals of environmental legislation and associated regulations are to protect public health, natural resources, and ecosystems. In this context, monitoring programs should provide timely and relevant information so that the regulatory community can implement legislation in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) of 1974 attempts to ensure that public water systems (PWSs) supply safe water to its consumers. As is the case with many other federal environmental statutes, SDWA monitoring has been implemented in relatively uniform fashion across the United States. In this three part series, spatial and temporal patterns in water quality data are utilized to develop, compare, and evaluate the economic performance of alternative place-based monitoring approaches to current monitoring practice. Part II: Several factors affect the performance of monitoring strategies, including: measurable objectives, required precision in estimates, acceptable confidence levels of such estimates, available budget for sampling. In this paper, we develop place-based monitoring strategies based on extensive analysis of available historical water quality data (1960-1994) of 19 Iowa community water systems. These systems supply potable water to over 350,000 people. In the context of drinking water, the objective is to protect public health by utilizing monitoring resources to characterize contaminants that are detectable, and are close to exceeding health standards. A place-based monitoring strategy was developed in which contaminants were selected based on their historical occurrence, rather than their appearance on the SDWA contaminant list. In a subset of the water systems, the temporal frequency of monitoring for one ubiquitous contaminant, nitrate, was tailored to patterns in its historical occurrence and concentration. Three sampling allocation models (linear, quadratic, and cubic) based on historic patterns in peak occurrence were developed and evaluated. Random and fixed-interval sampling strategies within the context of such models were also developed and evaluated. Strategies were configured to incorporate a variety of options for frequency and number of samples (depending on budget and the desired precision in estimate of peak concentrations).     

Economics of place-based monitoring under the safe drinking water act, part I: spatial and temporal patterns of contaminants, and design of screening strategies

The goals of environmental legislation and associated regulations are to protect public health, natural resources, and ecosystems. In this context, monitoring programs should provide timely and relevant information so that the regulatory community can implement legislation in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) of 1974 attempts to ensure that public water systems (PWSs) supply safe water to its consumers. As is the case with many other federal environmental statutes, SDWA monitoring has been implemented in relatively uniform fashion across the USA. In this three part series, spatial and temporal patterns in water quality data are utilized to develop, compare, and evaluate the economic performance of alternative place-based monitoring approaches to current monitoring practice. Under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA), a common list of over 90 contaminants is analyzed nationwide using EPA-authorized laboratory procedures. National and state-level summaries of SDWA data have shown that not all contaminants occur in all places at all times. This hypothesis is confirmed and extended by showing that only a few (less than seven) contaminants are of concern in any one of 19 Iowa surface water systems studied. These systems collectively serve about 350,000 people and their sizes vary between 1,200 and 120,000. The distributions of contaminants found in these systems are positively skewed, with many non-detect measurements. A screening strategy to identify such contaminants in individual systems is presented. These findings have significant implications not only for the design of alternative monitoring programs, but also in multi-billion-dollar decisions that influence the course of future drinking water infrastructure, repair, and maintenance investments.     

Perceptions and Behaviors of Indigenous Populations Regarding Illegal Use of Protected Area Resources in East Africa’s Mountain Gorilla Landscape

Illegal activities and use of park resources are the main challenges facing mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) conservation and the protection of their habitats in the East Africa’s Greater Virunga Transboundary Landscape (GVTL). Indigenous residents around GVTL are considered the primary illegal users of park resources. Despite this, there is limited understanding of the current and past perceptions of indigenous residents living in communities adjacent to two GVTL parks; Volcanoes National Park in Rwanda and Mgahinga Gorilla National Park in Uganda. Equally, there is also limited understanding regarding the actual incidences of illegal activities inside both parks. This paper addresses these gaps. Perception data were collected from indigenous residents living adjacent to both parks. Further, Ranger-based Monitoring (RbM) data from both parks were analyzed to determine actual numbers and types of illegal activities over the 9-year period. Interestingly, findings indicated that residents perceived the prevalence of illegal activities to be decreasing across GVTL. To the contrary, RbM findings indicated that the number of actual illegal activities was increasing significantly, particularly in Volcanoes National Park. The discrepancy found between the two perspectives provides for a discussion of the social biases potentially present in these data, and their implications for management. Results also illuminated the subsistence-related nature of most illegal behaviors and suggest that to reduce illegal activities and local dependency on park resources, park management must work with communities and support them in tapping into alternative livelihoods and finding ways to address community household subsistence needs.     

A study of extractive and remote-sensing sampling and measurement of emissions from military aircraft engines

Aircraft emissions contribute to the increased atmospheric burden of particulate matter (PM) that plays an important role in air quality, human health, visibility, contrail formation and climate change. Sampling and measurement of modern aircraft emissions at the engine exhaust plane (EEP) for engine and fuel certification remains challenging, as no agency-certified method is available. In this paper we summarize the results of three recent field studies devoted to investigate the consistency and applicability of “extractive” and “optical remote-sensing” (ORS) technologies in the sampling and measurement of gaseous and PM emitted by a number of military aircraft engines. Three classes of military engines were investigated; these include T56, TF33, and T700 & T701C types of engines, which consume 70–80% of the military aviation fuel each year. JP-8 and Fischer–Tropsch (FT)-derived paraffinic fuels were used to study the effect of fuels. It was found that non-volatile particles in the engine emissions were in the 20 nm range for the low power condition of new helicopter engines to 80 nm for the high power condition of legacy engines. Elemental analysis indicated little metals were present on particles, while most of the materials on the exhaust particles were carbon and sulfate based. Alkanes, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, formaldehyde, ethylene, acetylene and propylene were detected. The last five species were most noticeable only under low engine power. The emission indices calculated based on the ORS data deviate significantly from those based on the extractive data. Nevertheless, the ORS techniques were useful in the sense that it provided non-intrusive real-time detection of species in the exhaust plume, which warrants further development. The results obtained in this program help validate sampling methodology and measurement techniques used for non-volatile PM aircraft emissions as described in the SAE AIR6037 (2009).