Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Catchment-wide assessment of the cost-effectiveness of stormwater remediation measures in urban areas

The cost effectiveness of catchment-wide funding for the environmental remediation of urban waterways on the scale of a major metropolitan catchment is examined considering the typical land-use and pollutant-export characteristics of urban catchments. The evaluation is performed by comparing the effectiveness of the major stormwater treatment modes for the pollutants of concern with the proportion of pollutant export to which the measure applies. The heavy metals copper, lead, and zinc in the aqueous phase or bound to fine particulates are identified as representative of the pollutants of concern in drainage from urban catchments. The analysis suggests that these priority pollutants are predominantly (79–87%) derived from runoff from residential property and roads as disseminated urban surfaces. Analysis of a specific case of catchment-wide funding of stormwater remediation in the Sydney Harbour catchment, Australia reveals that the funding allocation cannot be expected to have achieved reductions in the loads of priority pollutants due to the types of treatment measures implemented and the sources addressed. The apportionment of funding in better accordance with the maximum potential effectiveness of stormwater treatment modes and the pollutant-export characteristics of urban catchments could thus be expected to achieve a more cost-effective result from such funding initiatives.     

Paradigms for parasite conservation

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite‐inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid‐20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host‐density threshold and cost‐benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host–parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future.     

The use of silver as a selective precipitant for I in radioactive waste management

¹²⁹I is one of the more hazardous nuclides occurring in radioactive waste. In the form of I⁻, its most likely speciation, it is poorly sorbed on most geologic media. Several workers have suggested the use of silver to precipitate I⁻ as the insoluble AgI, in a cemented waste form, or as a “getter”. The efficacy of this procedure is examined by experiment, in conjunction with thermodynamic predictions.The addition of AgNO₃ to Portland cement leads to coprecipitation with C-S-H, with low Ag solubilities ( 10 μmg/L); 2–;3 orders of magnitude lower than predicted (from Ag₂O). AgI is stable in these matrices, with low aqueous I concentrations (<2 mg/L). In 85% BFS-15% OPC pastes, AgI is unstable due to redox and complexation reactions, with much I⁻ passing into solution; concentrations up to 900 mg/L were observed. It is shown that repository conditions, on closure, are also likely to induce solubilisation of I⁻ from AgI. It is concluded that the use of Ag is unlikely to significantly improve the immobilisation properties of the near field for radioiodine.     

ESTIMATING THE WATER QUALITY BENEFITS FROM SOIL EROSION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: A framework for estimating the water quality benefits from soil erosion was developed. The framework is based on the linkages between soil erosion and offsite damages. The linkages are: erosion on the field, movement of eroded materials to waterways, impact of discharged material on water quality parameters, impact of water quality changes on ability of water to provide economic services, and the economic value of the changes in water use. These linkages need to be modeled in order to estimate the water quality benefits from reductions in soil erosion. Methods for modeling each link on a geographic level, which enables the analyses of national soil conservation, were examined. Areas where data or models were found to be lacking include transport of sediment and nutrients to water systems, impact of discharged materials on water quality parameters, and impact of water quality on ability of water to provide economic services. An economic evaluation of 1983 soil conservation programs was presented as an example of how the framework could be used. A number of simplifying assumptions were made to represent links that could not be modeled with available data.     

Social organization in deer: Implications for localized management

Populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) inhabiting many state and national parks and suburban areas have grown to the point that they conflict with human activities. Conflicts range from destruction of vegetation through browsing to public perception that diseases carried by deer pose threats to human health. Traditional modes of hunting to control populations are inappropriate in many of these areas because of intense human development and activity. This article explores an alternative approach for population reduction based on deer social organization. Female white-tailed deer are highly philopatric and female offspring remain near their dams for life. This suggests that a population expands slowly as a series of overlapping home ranges in a form analogous to the petals on a rose. Incorporating the rose petal concept into a model of population growth shows that removal of deer by family unit can potentially alleviate conflicts in localized areas for as many as 10–15 yr.     

PARTITIONING SMALL SCALE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RUNOFF AND EROSION ON SAGEBRUSH RANGELAND1

ABSTRACT: Most hydrologic models require input parameters which represent the variability found across an entire landscape. The estimation of such parameters is very difficult, particularly on rangeland. Improved model parameter estimation procedures are needed which incorporate the small-scale and temporal variability found on rangeland. This study investigates the use of a surface soil classification scheme to partition the spatial variability in hydrologic and interrill erosion processes in a sagebrush plant community. Four distinct microsites were found to exist within the sagebrush coppice-dune dune-interspace complex. The microsites explained the majority of variation in hydrologic and interrill erosion response found on the site and were discernable based on readily available soil and vegetation information. The variability within each microsite was quite low and was not well correlated with soil and vegetation properties. The surface soil classification scheme defined in this study can be quite useful for defining sampling procedures, for understanding hydrologic and erosion processes, and for parameterizing hydrologic models for use on sagebrush range-land.     

Screening method for locating groundwater monitoring wells

The traditional approach to characterizing the extent of groundwater contamination is often phased over a period of several years. A screening method has been developed that allows the investigation process to be reduced to a single phase. Existing data are used to develop a preliminary estimate of the extent of contamination, which is refined by the screening method using groundwater data collected and analyzed in the field. The screening method is applicable at sites with volatile organic compound contamination. Groundwater samples are collected using direct push or drill rig assisted methods, and the groundwater headspace gas is analyzed for the contaminant of interest. The refined estimate is used to locate all of the groundwater monitoring wells necessary to finalize the estimate of the extent of contamination. Therefore, only one investigation phase is required, and time and cost savings are realized with respect to the traditional multiphase approach. The screening method was successfully applied at a CERCLA site in Nebraska with two distinct plumes of TCE-contaminated groundwater. The Nebraska remedial investigation was completed approximately 18 months earlier than the estimated completion of a comparable phased investigation, with a corresponding cost reduction estimated at approximately 10 percent. If data from the screening method were used instead of data from monitoring wells, the estimated cost savings would be over 50 percent. Additional applications and evaluations may lead to industry and regulatory acceptance of the method as a primary characterization tool.