Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.
Poor countries are disproportionately affected by the cost of disasters. Yet there is evidence of the benefits of seeking
to mitigate the impact of a disaster, compared with the costs incurred in ‘making good’ after a major event has occurred.
This article reviews a programme of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Eastern Caribbean. The construction
of appropriate surface water management measures, based on the application of scientific and engineering principles, has been
demonstrated to reduce the hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides. Adopting a community-based approach additionally delivers
social and environmental benefits relating to employment generation, improvements in the environmental conditions within the
community, and improvements slope management practices. The sustained implementation of the community-based projects has provided
the necessary evidence-base for these practices to influence Government policy and practice, and gain recognition from regional
development agencies. The strategic and incremental uptake of the community-based methodology is demonstrated to be an effective
means for delivering physical landslide risk reduction measures in the most ‘at risk’ areas of unplanned housing. 相似文献
Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied. 相似文献
Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level
effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods
and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation
data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions
in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land
development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution
of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use
zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based
on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire
interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest
and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located
along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple
way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider
the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions. 相似文献
2,4-Dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) is widely distributed in wastewaters discharged from several industries, and it is considered as a priority pollutant due to its high toxicity. In this study, the use of different peroxidase extracts for 2,4-DCP removal from aqueous solutions was investigated. Tobacco hairy roots (HRs), wild-type (WT), and double-transgenic (DT) for tomato basic peroxidases (TPX1 and TPX2) were used to obtain different peroxidase extracts: total peroxidases (TPx), soluble peroxidases (SPx), and peroxidases ionically bound to the cell wall (IBPx). All extracts derived from DT HRs exhibited higher peroxidase activity than those obtained from WT HRs. TPx and IBPx DT extracts showed the highest catalytic efficiency values. The optimal conditions for 2,4-DCP oxidation were pH 6.5, H2O2 0.5 mM, and 200 U mL?1 of enzyme, for all extracts analyzed. Although both TPx extracts were able to oxidize different 2,4-DCP concentrations, the removal efficiency was higher for TPx DT. Polyethylene glycol addition slightly improved 2,4-DCP removal efficiency, and it showed some protective effect on TPx WT after 2,4-DCP oxidation. In addition, using Lactuca sativa test, a reduction of the toxicity of post removal solutions was observed, for both TPx extracts. The results demonstrate that TPx extracts from both tobacco HRs appear to be promising candidate for future applications in removing 2,4-DCP from wastewaters. This is particularly true considering that these peroxidase sources are associated with low costs and are readily available. However, TPx DT has increased peroxidase activity, catalytic efficiency, and higher removal efficiency than TPx WT, probably due to the expression of TPX1 and TPX2 isoenzymes. 相似文献
We have numerically modeled the breakdown of small quantities of several chlorinated hydrocarbons (CH3CI, CH2CI2, CHCI3, CCI4, C2H3CI, and C2H5CI) in a lean mixture of combustion products between 800 and 1480 K. This simulates the fate of poorly atomized waste in a liquid-Injection Incinerator. Kinetics calculations were performed using the CHEMKIN and SENKIN programs, with a reaction mechanism that was developed at Louisiana State University to model flat-flame burner experiments. A 99.99-percent destruction efficiency was attained In one second at temperatures ranging from 1280 to 960 K, with CCI4 requiring the highest temperature for destruction and C2H5CI the lowest. For all compounds except C2H5CI, there was a range of temperatures at which byproducts accounted for several percent of the elemental chlorine at the outlet. The more heavily chlorinated compounds formed more byproducts even though the amount of elemental chlorine was the same in all cases. The sensitivity of results to residence time, equivalence ratio, temperature profile, and the presence of additional chlorine, was examined for the case of CHCI3. 相似文献
Abstract Twenty-five MiniVol samplers were operated throughout the Mexico City metropolitan region from February 22 through March 22, 1997, to evaluate the variability of PM10 concentrations and composition. The highest PM10 concentrations were found in neighborhoods with unpaved or dirty roads, and elements related to crustal material were the main cause of differences from nearby (<200 m) monitors that were not adjacent to the roadbed. SO42?concentrations were homogeneous across the city. SO42?measured at the city boundaries was about two-thirds of the concentrations measured within the urbanized area, indicating that most SO42? is of regional origin. Elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations were highly variable, with higher concentrations in areas that had high diesel traffic and older vehicles. Spatial correlations among PM10 concentrations were high, even though absolute concentrations were variable, indicating a common effect of meteorology on the concentration or dispersion of local emissions. 相似文献
A bench‐scale study was conducted to evaluate the effect of divalent cations on the adsorption of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) onto soil particles. The study entailed batch testing of a synthetic soil mixture under a range of Epsom salt (soluble magnesium sulfate heptahydrate) concentrations. The synthetic soil was produced using a mix of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter that then was mixed and saturated with water collected from a PFAS‐impacted water source. The results indicate that variable concentrations of magnesium (divalent cation) had a minor effect on the sorption of perfluorooctane sulfonate with the highest sorption occurring in the strongest solution of Epsom salt. An unanticipated result of the test involved apparent biomediated transformation of polyfluorinated alkylated sulfonates (fluorotelomers or FTS) to perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluoroheptanoic acid (PFHpA), and perfluorononanoic acid. We believe this is the first time the complete transformation of 6:2 FTS to PFHpA has been observed and reported under ambient surface water‐like conditions within 6 months, a relatively short timeframe. 相似文献
This paper discusses the extent to which charity-led initiatives can contribute to capacity building for food justice in England. The paper draws on evaluations of two projects run by the charity Garden Organic: the Master Gardener Programme, operating a network of volunteers who mentor households, schools and community groups to support local food growing, and the Sowing New Seeds programme, which engages “Seed Stewards” to work with communities to encourage the growing and cooking of “exotic” crops. Based on qualitative data about peoples’ motivations for participation and the benefits that are experienced, we interpret these projects as examples of capacity building for food justice. We suggest that whilst currently depoliticised, the “quiet” process of reskilling and awareness raising that occurs through shared gardening projects could have transformative potential for people’s relationship with food. Finally, we use our findings to raise critical questions and propose future research about food justice concepts and practices. 相似文献