Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Social-ecological system resonance: a theoretical framework for brokering sustainable solutions

Sustainability science is a solution-oriented discipline. Yet, there are few theory-rich discussions about how this orientation structures the efforts of sustainability science. We argue that Niklas Luhmann’s social system theory, which explains how societies communicate problems, conceptualize solutions, and identify pathways towards implementation of solutions, is valuable in explaining the general structure of sustainability science. From Luhmann, we focus on two key concepts. First, his notion of resonance offers us a way to account for how sustainability science has attended and responded to environmental risks. As a product of resonance, we reveal solution-oriented research as the strategic coordination of capacities, resources, and information. Second, Luhmann’s interests in self-organizing processes explain how sustainability science can simultaneously advance multiple innovations. The value logic that supports this multiplicity of self-organizing activities as a recognition that human and natural systems are complex coupled and mutually influencing. To give form to this theoretical framework, we offer case evidence of renewable energy policy formation in Texas. Although the state’s wealth is rooted in a fossil-fuel heritage, Texas generates more electricity from wind than any US state. It is politically antagonistic towards climate-change policy, yet the state’s reception of wind energy technology illustrates how social and environmental systems can be strategically aligned to generate solutions that address diverse needs simultaneously. This case demonstrates that isolating climate change—as politicians do as a separate and discrete problem—is incapable of achieving sustainable solutions, and resonance offers researchers a framework for conceptualizing, designing, and communicating meaningfully integrated actions.     

Comparison of analytical descriptions of nocturnal low-level jets within the Ekman model framework

This study focuses on the inertial oscillation aspect of the nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ). In the context of the Ekman model solutions, conceptual NLLJ inertial oscillation analytical frameworks proposed by Blackadar in 1957 and Shapiro and Fedorovich and van de Wiel et al. in 2010 are compared. Considering a NLLJ produced via direct numerical simulation over flat terrain with no baroclinic influence as a reference case, the deficiencies of each framework in representing a realistic NLLJ are assessed. The Blackadar theory results in unrealistic wind profiles near the surface. While extensions of Blackadar’s framework by Shapiro and Fedorovich and van de Wiel et al. produce more realistic NLLJs, the simpler approach taken by van de Wiel et al. does not describe the NLLJ wind hodograph at later times sufficiently in qualitative terms.     

Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle

Multiple factors including climate change, price uncertainties, and geopolitical instability have prompted many industries to investigate the feasibility of replacing traditional petroleum-based fuels with biofuel alternatives. However, to make this transition successful, these new biofuels must be environmentally sustainable and the necessary support infrastructure must be in place to make the production, distribution, and storage of these biofuels technologically feasible and cost effective. Developing a value chain, spanning from feedstock production to distribution to end users, requires garnering buy-in from multiple stakeholders by demonstrating environmental, economic, and social benefits and incentives. Two critical factors are the environmental benefits achieved from the use of the biofuel technology and the degree of resilience of the value chain to emergent conditions to ensure steady supply to consumers. Moreover, different biofuel pathways have different costs, benefits, and risks which must be compared. In this paper, we describe how environmental sustainability can be modeled using life cycle assessment (LCA) and how the resilience of value chain initiatives can be modeled using a scenario-based decision model. We then describe how sustainability and resilience assessments can be integrated in an iterative, anticipatory LCA framework. These assessments can be used as the basis for a business case for various investments, as well as a means for promoting responsible innovations, with the aviation industry used as a case study.     

Does Zoning Winter Recreationists Reduce Recreation Conflict?

Environmental Management - Parks and protected area managers use zoning to decrease interpersonal conflict between recreationists. Zoning, or segregation, of recreation—often by non-motorized...     

Analysis of short-term ozone and PM2.5 measurements: Characteristics and relationships for air sensor messaging

Air quality sensors are becoming increasingly available to the general public, providing individuals and communities with information on fine-scale, local air quality in increments as short as 1 min. Current health studies do not support linking 1-min exposures to adverse health effects; therefore, the potential health implications of such ambient exposures are unclear. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Air Quality Index (AQI) on the best science available, which typically uses longer averaging periods (e.g., 8 hr; 24 hr). Another consideration for interpreting sensor data is the variable relationship between pollutant concentrations measured by sensors, which are short-term (1 min to 1 hr), and the longer term averages used in the NAAQS and AQI. In addition, sensors often do not meet federal performance or quality assurance requirements, which introduces uncertainty in the accuracy and interpretation of these readings. This article describes a statistical analysis of data from regulatory monitors and new real-time technology from Village Green benches to inform the interpretation and communication of short-term air sensor data. We investigate the characteristics of this novel data set and the temporal relationships of short-term concentrations to 8-hr average (ozone) and 24-hr average (PM_2.5) concentrations to examine how sensor readings may relate to the NAAQS and AQI categories, and ultimately to inform breakpoints for sensor messages. We consider the empirical distributions of the maximum 8-hr averages (ozone) and 24-hr averages (PM_2.5) given the corresponding short-term concentrations, and provide a probabilistic assessment. The result is a robust, empirical comparison that includes events of interest for air quality exceedances and public health communication. Concentration breakpoints are developed for short-term sensor readings such that, to the extent possible, the related air quality messages that are conveyed to the public are consistent with messages related to the NAAQS and AQI.

Implications: Real-time sensors have the potential to provide important information about fine-scale current air quality and local air quality events. The statistical analysis of short-term regulatory and sensor data, coupled with policy considerations and known health effects experienced over longer averaging times, supports interpretation of such short-term data and efforts to communicate local air quality.     

Detention Outlet Retrofit Improves the Functionality of Existing Detention Basins by Reducing Erosive Flows in Receiving Channels

By discharging excess stormwater at rates that more frequently exceed the critical flow for stream erosion, conventional detention basins often contribute to increased channel instability in urban and suburban systems that can be detrimental to aquatic habitat and water quality, as well as adjacent property and infrastructure. However, these ubiquitous assets, valued at approximately $600,000 per km² in a representative suburban watershed, are ideal candidates to aid in reversing such cycles of channel degradation because improving their functionality would not necessarily require property acquisition or heavy construction. The objective of this research was to develop a simple, cost‐effective device that could be installed in detention basin outlets to reduce the erosive power of the relatively frequent storm events (~ < two‐year recurrence) and provide a passive bypass to maintain flood control performance during infrequent storms (such as the 100‐year recurrence). Results from a pilot installation show that the Detain H₂O device reduced the cumulative sediment transport capacity of the preretrofit condition by greater than 40%, and contributed to reduced flashiness and prolonged baseflows in receiving streams. When scaling the strategy across a watershed, these results suggest that potential gains in water quality and stream channel stability could be achieved at costs that are orders of magnitude less than comparable benefits from newly constructed stormwater control measures.     

Capacity building for food justice in England: the contribution of charity-led community food initiatives

This paper discusses the extent to which charity-led initiatives can contribute to capacity building for food justice in England. The paper draws on evaluations of two projects run by the charity Garden Organic: the Master Gardener Programme, operating a network of volunteers who mentor households, schools and community groups to support local food growing, and the Sowing New Seeds programme, which engages “Seed Stewards” to work with communities to encourage the growing and cooking of “exotic” crops. Based on qualitative data about peoples’ motivations for participation and the benefits that are experienced, we interpret these projects as examples of capacity building for food justice. We suggest that whilst currently depoliticised, the “quiet” process of reskilling and awareness raising that occurs through shared gardening projects could have transformative potential for people’s relationship with food. Finally, we use our findings to raise critical questions and propose future research about food justice concepts and practices.     

Phytoremediation of a Petroleum‐Hydrocarbon Contaminated Shallow Aquifer in Elizabeth City,North Carolina,USA

A former bulk fuel terminal in North Carolina is a groundwater phytoremediation demonstration site where 3,250 hybrid poplars, willows, and pine trees were planted from 2006 to 2008 over approximately 579,000 L of residual gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Since 2011, the groundwater altitude is lower in the area with trees than outside the planted area. Soil‐gas analyses showed a 95 percent mass loss for total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and a 99 percent mass loss for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX). BTEX and methyl tert‐butyl ether concentrations have decreased in groundwater. Interpolations of free‐phase, fuel product gauging data show reduced thicknesses across the site and pooling of fuel product where poplar biomass is greatest. Isolated clusters of tree mortalities have persisted in areas with high TPH and BTEX mass. Toxicity assays showed impaired water use for willows and poplars exposed to the site's fuel product, but Populus survival was higher than the willows or pines on‐site, even in a noncontaminated control area. All four Populus clones survived well at the site. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.*