NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.     

What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas?

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level rise equivalent to global mean temperature rises of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C with respect to pre-industrial for three ensemble members of a modified A1B scenario. Annual climate variability today (with approximately 1.0 °C of warming) is potentially more important, in terms of coastal impacts, than an additional 0.5 °C warming. In coastal Bangladesh, the average depth of flooding in protected areas is projected to double to between 0.07 and 0.09 m when temperatures are projected at 3.0 °C compared with 1.5 °C. In unprotected areas, the depth of flooding is projected to increase by approximately 50% to 0.21–0.27 m, whilst the average area inundated increases 2.5 times (from 5 to 13% of the region) in the same temperature frame. The greatest area of land flooded is projected in the central and north-east regions. In contrast, lower flood depths, less land area flooded and fewer people are projected in the poldered west of the region. Over multi-centennial timescales, climate change mitigation and controlled sedimentation to maintain relative delta height are key to a delta’s survival. With slow rates of sea-level rise, adaptation remains possible, but further support is required. Monitoring of sea-level rise and subsidence in deltas is recommended, together with improved datasets of elevation.

     

Abandonment landscapes: user attitudes,alternative futures and land management in Castro Laboreiro,Portugal

Land abandonment is an important process for the European Union, which primarily occurs in less productive, remote and mountainous areas with unfavourable conditions for agriculture. Future management directions of these abandonment areas are under debate, with increasing calls to adjust policies to the local characteristics, including the promotion of rewilding and the management of succession of larger areas of less-productive land. While there is an increase in studies focusing on the environmental impacts of land abandonment, there are few studies that focus on the perceptions of abandonment by different user groups, even though an understanding of local perceptions, opportunities and trade-offs associated with changing land management is crucial for landscape-related policies and planning measures. In a case study in Northern Portugal, we used a combination of statements, photograph rating exercises and open questions to assess the perceptions of local inhabitants, visitors and experts regarding land abandonment and their preferences of different possible trajectories after abandonment. The results show that all user groups have a negative response towards abandonment and associate it mainly with negative emotions and the loss of heritage and traditions. The assessment of the different abandonment stages and outcomes clearly yielded different preferences and explanations, which can be used as input for finding a common ground for landscape management, reducing conflict and as a starting point for a more spatially targeted and nuanced management approach.

     

Understanding the changing role of global public health in biodiversity conservation

Zoonotic disease emergence has become a core concern of biodiversity conservation amid the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Major international conservation groups now comprehensively center larger human–nature imbalances not only as problems of global public health but as a core challenge of the conservation movement, alongside habitat destruction, biodiversity loss and climate change. There is, however, little consideration of how new biosecurity concerns might alter conservation practice with unexpected and potential harmful impacts on human communities, particularly in developing nations with significant human–wildlife interfaces. Reviewing emerging policy positions from key conservation organizations, this article argues that the proposed responses to the COVID-19 pandemic hold the potential to (a) amplify existing people-park conflicts, and (b) generate new tensions by integrating global systems of viral surveillance into biodiversity conservation. I conclude that the close integration of biosecurity concerns into conservation policies requires greater acknowledgment of the unique challenges for human communities.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-021-01576-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Reproductive toxicity of trenbolone acetate in embryonically exposed Japanese quail

This study was conducted to assess the effects of a one time embryonic exposure to trenbolone acetate on reproductive development and function in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica). Embryos were exposed to either 0.05, 0.5, 5, or 50microg trenbolone or a sesame oil vehicle control at embryonic day 4. Onset of puberty, gonadal histopathology, sperm motility, cloacal gland size, and male copulatory behavior were assessed in adults. Trenbolone delayed onset of puberty in males, inhibited cloacal gland development, and reduced male reproductive behaviors. Industry laboratories have shown trenbolone acetate to be non-teratogenic in mammalian studies. Our study, however, shows that this one time in ovo exposure delayed onset of puberty in and suppressed adult copulatory behavior in quail males. These results suggest that this one time embryonic exposure to trenbolone may have disrupted development of either the central nervous system or the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. This is the first study to demonstrate a demasculinizing effect on copulatory behavior in Japanese quail from embryonic exposure to a non-aromatizable androgenic chemical. More studies are needed to determine the mechanisms behind the observed effects.     

The Anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great forces of Nature?

We explore the development of the Anthropocene, the current epoch in which humans and our societies have become a global geophysical force. The Anthropocene began around 1800 with the onset of industrialization, the central feature of which was the enormous expansion in the use of fossil fuels. We use atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as a single, simple indicator to track the progression of the Anthropocene. From a preindustrial value of 270-275 ppm, atmospheric carbon dioxide had risen to about 310 ppm by 1950. Since then the human enterprise has experienced a remarkable explosion, the Great Acceleration, with significant consequences for Earth System functioning. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has risen from 310 to 380 ppm since 1950, with about half of the total rise since the preindustrial era occurring in just the last 30 years. The Great Acceleration is reaching criticality. Whatever unfolds, the next few decades will surely be a tipping point in the evolution of the Anthropocene.     

Benefits of Collaborative Learning for Environmental Management: Applying the Integrated Systems for Knowledge Management Approach to Support Animal Pest Control

Resource management issues continually change over time in response to coevolving social, economic, and ecological systems. Under these conditions adaptive management, or “learning by doing,” offers an opportunity for more proactive and collaborative approaches to resolving environmental problems. In turn, this will require the implementation of learning-based extension approaches alongside more traditional linear technology transfer approaches within the area of environmental extension. In this paper the Integrated Systems for Knowledge Management (ISKM) approach is presented to illustrate how such learning-based approaches can be used to help communities develop, apply, and refine technical information within a larger context of shared understanding. To outline how this works in practice, we use a case study involving pest management. Particular attention is paid to the issues that emerge as a result of multiple stakeholder involvement within environmental problem situations. Finally, the potential role of the Internet in supporting and disseminating the experience gained through ongoing adaptive management processes is examined.