Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.     

Possible involvement of plant ABC transporters in cadmium detoxification: a cDNA sub-microarray approach

As a nontolerant plant to a large number of toxic compounds, Arabidopsis thaliana is a suitable model to study regulation of genes involved in response to heavy metals. Using a cDNA-microarray approach, we identified some ABC transporters that are differentially regulated after cadmium treatments, making them putative candidates for being involved in Cd sequestration and redistribution in plants. Regarding yeast and fission yeast, in which Cd is able to form complexes either with glutathione (GSH) or phytochelatins (PC) subsequently transported into vacuoles via ABC transporters, it is also very likely that some plant ABC transporters are able to transport GS(2)-Cd or PC-Cd complexes into subcellular compartments or outside of the cell. The characterization of such transporters is of great interest for developing molecular biology approaches in phytoremediation.     

Open fetal surgery for myelomeningocele

Despite efforts at prevention through the use of preconception folic acid, spina bifida remains one of the most common congenital anomalies of the central nervous system that is compatible with life. It is, however, associated with a significant degree of lifelong morbidity. The development of open fetal surgery for myelomeningocele (MMC) has been a long process but one that serves as a model for how new procedures and technologies need to be properly evaluated before being brought into mainstream medical practice. Even so, risks and benefits need to be evaluated for each patient. The currently available studies have been carried out on a highly selected patient population where the fetal findings provided the maximum opportunity for benefit from prenatal closure of the MMC defect. There is the potential that as the surgery becomes more widely available, pressure will be brought to bear to perform surgery in cases where the likelihood for benefit is decreased and yet the risks are not. The only way to duplicate the results of the current studies is to follow the methodology and criteria that were used in the studies. This will mean that not every fetus with an MMC will be a candidate for in utero surgery. The balance of risk to benefit will continue to evolve as further technological advances are evaluated and more follow-up information is obtained. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of volcanic dust in the atmospheric transport and deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and mercury

The role of volcanic ash as scavenger of atmospheric pollutants, in their transport and final deposition to the ground is examined. Attention is focused on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and on particulate mercury (Hgp). The ash-fall deposits studied belong to the 2001 and 2002 eruptive activity of Mount Etna, Southern Italy, and were investigated at three (2001) and four (2002) sites downwind of the major tephra dispersal pattern. The dry deposition of mercury and PAHs was determined, and, in particular, a downward flux to the ground of PAHs (approximately 7.29 microg m(-2) per day) and mercury (750 ng m(-2) per day) was estimated in Catania from October 26 to October 28, 2002. Finally, evidence on the anthropogenic origin of PAHs scavenged from the troposphere by volcanic ash is supported by the analysis of PAH compositions in granulometrically homogeneous fractions.     

Estimation of road vehicle exhaust emissions from 1992 to 2010 and comparison with air quality measurements in Genoa,Italy

An investigation into road transport exhaust emissions in the Genoa urban area was performed by comparing the quantities of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM) emitted by different vehicle categories with air quality measurements referred to the same pollutants. Exhaust emissions were evaluated by applying the PROGRESS (computer PROGramme for Road vehicle EmiSSions evaluation) code, developed by the Internal Combustion Engines Group of the University of Genoa, to eight different years (from 1992 to 2010), considering spark ignition and Diesel passenger cars and light duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles and buses, motorcycles and mopeds. Changes in terms of vehicles number, mileage and total emissions are presented together with relative distributions among the various vehicle categories. By comparing 1992 and 2010 data, calculated trends show a 7% increase in the number of vehicles, with total mileage growing at a faster rate (approx. 22%); total emissions decrease considerably, by approximately 50% for NO_x and PM, 70% for HC and 80% for CO, due to improvements in engines and fuels forced by the stricter European legislation and the fleet renewal, while primary NO₂ emission will be very close to 1992 level, after a decrease of about 18% in 2000.Air quality was analysed by selecting traffic and background measuring stations from the monitoring network managed by the Environmental Department of the Province of Genoa: average annual concentrations of considered pollutants from 1994 to 2007 were calculated in order to obtain the relative historical trends and compare them with European public health limits and with road vehicle emissions. Though an important reduction in pollutant concentrations has been achieved as a consequence of cleaner vehicles, some difficulties in complying with present and/or future NO₂ and PM₁₀ limits are also apparent, thus requiring suitable measures to be taken by the local authorities.     

Prenatal interventions for fetal lung lesions

The widespread availability of high resolution ultrasound equipment and almost universal routine anatomy scanning in all pregnant women in the developed world has lead to increased detection of abnormalities in the fetal thorax. Already in the 1980s, large pleural effusions and significant macrocystic lesions in the fetus were easily detected on ultrasound. However, smaller lung tumours were often missed. Nowadays, fetal medicine centres receive many referrals for evaluation of fetal lung lesions, of which the most common are congenital cystic adenomatoid malformation and bronchopulmonary sequestration. Almost invariably, both the parents and the referring physicians experience anxiety after detection of large lung masses in the fetus. However, the vast majority of the currently detected fetal lung lesions have an excellent prognosis without the need for prenatal intervention. In the small group of fetuses in which the prognosis is poor, almost exclusively those with concomitant fetal hydrops and cardiac failure, several options for fetal therapy exist, often with a more than 50% survival rate. Indications, techniques, complications and outcomes of these interventions will be described in this review. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.     

Extending large-scale forest inventories to assess urban forests

Urban areas are continuously expanding today, extending their influence on an increasingly large proportion of woods and trees located in or nearby urban and urbanizing areas, the so-called urban forests. Although these forests have the potential for significantly improving the quality the urban environment and the well-being of the urban population, data to quantify the extent and characteristics of urban forests are still lacking or fragmentary on a large scale. In this regard, an expansion of the domain of multipurpose forest inventories like National Forest Inventories (NFIs) towards urban forests would be required. To this end, it would be convenient to exploit the same sampling scheme applied in NFIs to assess the basic features of urban forests. This paper considers approximately unbiased estimators of abundance and coverage of urban forests, together with estimators of the corresponding variances, which can be achieved from the first phase of most large-scale forest inventories. A simulation study is carried out in order to check the performance of the considered estimators under various situations involving the spatial distribution of the urban forests over the study area. An application is worked out on the data from the Italian NFI.