Environmental change and declining resource availability for small-mammal communities in the Great Basin

Changes in climate and land use can impact natural systems across all levels of ecological organization. Most documented and anticipated effects consider species' properties, including phenologies, geographic distributions, and abundances. Responses of higher-level aggregate community or ecosystem properties have not been considered as they are assumed to be relatively stable due to compensatory dynamics and diversity-stability relationships. However, this assumption may not be as fundamental as previously thought. Here we assess stability in the aggregate properties of total abundance, biomass, and energy consumption for small-mammal communities in the Great Basin, using paired historical and modern survey data spanning nearly a century of environmental change. Results show marked declines in each aggregate property independent of spatial scale, elevation, or habitat type, and a reallocation of available biomass and energy favoring diet and habitat generalists. Because aggregate properties directly reflect resource availability, our findings indicate a regionwide decline in resources of 50% over the past century, which may signal a resource crisis. This work illustrates the power of using aggregate properties as indicators of ecological conditions and environmental change at broad spatial and temporal scales.     

Case-control and cross-sectional methods for estimating crash modification factors: comparisons from roadway lighting and lane and shoulder width safety effect studies

Problem

While observational before-after studies are considered the industry standard for developing crash modification factors (CMFs), there are practical limitations that may preclude their use in highway safety analysis. There is a need to explore alternative methods for estimating CMFs.

Method

This paper employs case-control and cross-sectional analyses to estimate CMFs for fixed roadway lighting and the allocation of lane and shoulder widths.

Results

Based on the case-control method, the CMF for intersection lighting is 0.886, while the cross-sectional study indicates a CMF of 0.881. The CMFs developed for lane and shoulder widths are also similar when comparing the two methods.

Conclusions

This paper suggests that case-control and cross-sectional studies produce consistent results if care is taken in the study design and model development.

Impact on industry

Case-control and cross-sectional studies may provide a viable alternative to estimate CMFs when a before-after study is impractical due to data restrictions.     

What’s past is prologue: Organizational learning from a serious patient injury

This exploratory case study examines how one hospital learned from an adverse event (AE), a medication overdose that seriously injured a patient. Using qualitative data analysis, we examined how four professional groups reacted to the AE: physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and representatives from the combined quality assurance and risk management departments. Following the AE, each professional group classified the event differently, assessed a different segment of history, made decisions about different issues, and chose different courses of action. Despite these differences, the physician, nursing and pharmacy management teams all decided on which solutions to implement before the first root cause analysis meeting was convened. Indeed, to understand how the hospital implemented changes in the aftermath of the AE, it was necessary to examine the learning from near misses and other warnings that preceded it. This case highlights the importance of the politics of organizational learning and raises theoretical and practical questions about how hospitals learn from potential and actual adverse events.     

Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos,Nigeria

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.     

Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States

We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.     

Electrokinetic ion transport through unsaturated soil: 2. Application to a heterogeneous field site

Results of a field demonstration of electrokinetic transport of acetate through an unsaturated heterogeneous soil are compared to numerical modeling predictions. The numerical model was based on the groundwater flow and transport codes MODFLOW and MT3D modified to account for electrically induced ion transport. The 6-month field demonstration was conducted in an unsaturated layered soil profile where the soil moisture content ranged from 4% to 28% (m3 m(-3)). Specially designed ceramic-cased electrodes maintained a steady-state moisture content and electric potential field between the electrodes during the field demonstration. Acetate, a byproduct of acetic acid neutralization of the cathode electrolysis reaction, was transported from the cathode to the anode by electromigration. Field demonstration results indicated preferential transport of acetate through soil layers exhibiting higher moisture content/electrical conductivity. These field transport results agree with theoretical predictions that electromigration velocity is proportional to a power function of the effective moisture content. A numerical model using a homogeneous moisture content/electrical conductivity domain did not adequately predict the acetate field results. Numerical model predictions using a three-layer electrical conductivity/moisture content profile agreed qualitatively with the observed acetate distribution. These results suggest that field heterogeneities must be incorporated into electrokinetic models to predict ion transport at the field-scale.     

Gorlin syndrome (naevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome): Prenatal detection in a fetus with macrocephaly and ventriculomegaly

The Gorlin (naevoid basal cell carcinoma) syndrome is an autosomal dominant disorder consisting principally of naevoid basal cell carcinomas, odontogenic keratocysts, skeletal abnormalities, and intracranial calcification. We report the prenatal detection of the Gorlin syndrome by ultrasonography in a fetus with macrocephaly and mild ventriculomegaly.