Modelling the global cycle of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus and their influence on the global heat balance

A model for the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been set up, taking into consideration: (1) the global cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus: (2) the CO₂-diffusion in the oceans with means of a multilayer ?ea model; (3) the ability of the oceans to take up CO₂; (4) the influence of the CO₂-concentrations and of the temperature on this ability; (5) different growth rates for the consumption of fossil fuel including logistic growth; (6) the natural climatic variation.It is shown to be essential to include all these factors. The inclusion of factors (4) and (6), which have been omitted in many previous publications, is very essential to the model.     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Life cycle assessment and environmental improvement of residential and drinking water supply systems in Hanoi,Vietnam

In many Asian cities the public water supply is characterised by low pressure, frequent interruptions and occasional contamination. Hence, private households have to store water and increase pressure individually to ensure an uninterrupted supply at sufficient pressure and water for drinking has to be boiled or supplied separately in bottles. In this study the present water supply system in Hanoi and a number of modification options were analysed from an environmental point of view through life cycle assessment (LCA) in order to identify the most sustainable solutions for future water supply. It was found that the boiling of water for drinking was the largest source of impacts in the present system. Impacts could be reduced significantly if the public supply network was improved and private pumping and storage could be avoided and if the water could be used directly for drinking. It was also found that impacts could be reduced if consumers used bottled water for drinking instead of boiling tap water. Finally, it was demonstrated that even if drinking water cannot be supplied directly through the public network, a reliable public water supply at high pressure is environmentally advantageous. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the conclusions of this study are likely to be applicable to other cities with similar water supply systems.     

The role of size and aggression in intrasexual male competition in a social lizard species, Egernia whitii

Competition between males is a key component of the agonistic intrasexual interactions that influence resource acquisition, social system dynamics, and ultimately reproductive success. Sexual selection theory predicts that traits that enhance success in intrasexual competition (particularly male–male competition) should be favored. In vertebrates, this often includes body size and aggression, with larger and/or more aggressive males outcompeting smaller or less aggressive conspecifics. The majority of studies consider aggression as a flexible trait which responds to local social or environmental conditions. However, aggression frequently shows considerable within-individual consistency (i.e., individuals have identifiable aggressive behavioral types). Little is known about how such consistency in aggression may influence competition outcomes. We integrated a detailed field study with a laboratory experiment to examine how a male’s aggressive phenotype and his size influence competitive interactions in Egernia whitii, a social lizard species which exhibits strong competition over resources (limited permanent shelter sites and basking sites). Individual aggression and size did not predict competition outcome in the laboratory nor did they predict home range size, overlap, or reproductive success in the field. However, winners of laboratory trial contests maintained consistent aggressive phenotypes while consistency in aggression was lost in losers. We suggest that aggression may be important in other functional contexts, such as parental care, and that alternative traits, such as fighting experience, may be important in determining competition outcome in this species.     

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

A model on the carbon cycling in Lake Taihu, China

A model of the carbon cycling in Lake Taihu was developed based on the previous developed model EcoTaihu Model, which couples the hydrology, the nutrient cycling and a number of biological processes. The carbon cycling model (abbreviated CCM) has in addition to the states variables of the EcoTaihu Model, the carbon in phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, macroplant, hydrogen carbonate carbon, carbonate carbon, dissolved carbon, abiotic organic carbon in water, organic carbon in sediment, soluble organic carbon in pore water, inorganic carbon in sediments, soluble inorganic carbon in pore water and pH. The calibration and validation of the CCM showed that the model results are in good accordance with the observations (from the period February17 to December. 5, 2003). It implies that the model can be used to assess the variation of the carbon dioxide flux at the water-air interface, and to find the pH value of the lake water as function of time. According to the model, the carbon dioxide flux at the water-air interface has clear, diurnal variations. Eutrophied water is a sink for the atmospheric carbon dioxide due to the phytosynthesis during the summer. Due to the terrestrial input of carbon to the lake, Lake Taihu is, however, a source of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The total annual flux is almost equal to the terrestrial input of carbon to the lake.     

常规风与飓风的极值风速预测模型评述

结构在服役期内设计荷载的取值是否可靠,极大地影响着结构的安全性及经济效益.由于柔性大的结构如高耸、大跨结构和桥梁等对极值风速作用非常敏感,目前世界范围内因风灾造成的结构破坏和损失趋益严重,因此结构尤其是沿海地区结构的设计风荷载取值就非常重要.着重评述了近20年来欧美在常规风、飓风等极值风速统计预测模型方面的研究进展.