Watershed land use effects on lake water quality in Denmark

Mitigating nutrient losses from anthropogenic nonpoint sources is today of particular importance for improving the water quality of numerous freshwater lakes worldwide. Several empirical relationships between land use and in-lake water quality variables have been developed, but they are often weak, which can in part be attributed to lack of detailed information about land use activities or point sources. We examined a comprehensive data set comprising land use data, point-source information, and in-lake water quality for 414 Danish lakes. By excluding point-source-influenced lakes (n = 210), the strength in relationship (R2) between in-lake total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and the proportion of agricultural land use in the watershed increased markedly, from 10-12% to 39-42% for deep lakes and from 10-12% to 21-23% for shallow lakes, with the highest increase for TN. Relationships between TP and agricultural land use were even stronger for lakes with rivers in their watershed (55%) compared to lakes without (28%), indicating that rivers mediate a stronger linkage between landscape activity and lake water quality by providing a "delivery" mechanism for excess nutrients in the watershed. When examining the effect of different near-freshwater land zones in contrast to the entire watershed, relationships generally improved with size of zone (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 m from the edge of lake and streams) but were by far strongest using the entire watershed. The proportion of agricultural land use in the entire watershed was best in explaining lake water quality, both relative to estimated nutrient surplus at agricultural field level and near-lake land use, which somewhat contrasts typical strategies of management policies that mainly target agricultural nutrient applications and implementation of near-water buffer zones. This study suggests that transport mechanisms within the whole catchment are important for the nutrient export to lakes. Hence, the whole watershed should be considered when managing nutrient loadings to lakes, and future policies should ideally target measures that reduce the proportion of cultivated land in the watershed to successfully improve lake water quality.     

Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal modelling of trends and future projections in the ocean wave climate with a \text{ CO }_2 regression component

Bad weather and rough seas continue to be a major cause for ship losses and is thus a significant contributor to the risk to maritime transportation. This stresses the importance of taking severe sea state conditions adequately into account, with due treatment of the uncertainties involved, in ship design and operation in order to enhance safety. Hence, there is a need for appropriate stochastic models describing the variability of sea states. These should also incorporate realistic projections of future return levels of extreme sea states, taking into account long-term trends related to climate change and inherent uncertainties. The stochastic ocean wave model presented in this paper exploits the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space-time models. It allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet at the same time remains intuitive and easily interpreted. Furthermore, by taking a Bayesian approach, the uncertainties of the model parameters are also taken into account. A regression component with $\text{ CO }_2$ as an explanatory variable has been introduced in order to extract long-term trends in the data. The model has been fitted by monthly maximum significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined in the paper, and the results will be discussed. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model will be given.     

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Ambio - In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided...     

Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea

Ambio - The coastal zone of the Baltic Sea is diverse with strong regional differences in the physico-chemical setting. This diversity is also reflected in the importance of different...     

Urban tinkering

Cities are currently experiencing serious, multifaceted impacts from global environmental change, especially climate change, and the degree to which they will need to cope with and adapt to such challenges will continue to increase. A complex systems approach inspired by evolutionary theory can inform strategies for policies and interventions to deal with growing urban vulnerabilities. Such an approach would guide the design of new (and redesign of existing) urban structures, while promoting innovative integration of grey, green and blue infrastructure in service of environmental and health objectives. Moreover, it would contribute to more flexible, effective policies for urban management and the use of urban space. Four decades ago, in a seminal paper in Science, the French evolutionary biologist and philosopher Francois Jacob noted that evolution differs significantly in its characteristic modes of action from processes that are designed and engineered de novo (Jacob in Science 196(4295):1161–1166, 1977). He labeled the evolutionary process “tinkering”, recognizing its foundation in the modification and molding of existing traits and forms, with occasional dramatic shifts in function in the context of changing conditions. This contrasts greatly with conventional engineering and design approaches that apply tailor-made materials and tools to achieve well-defined functions that are specified a priori. We here propose that urban tinkering is the application of evolutionary thinking to urban design, engineering, ecological restoration, management and governance. We define urban tinkering as:

A mode of operation, encompassing policy, planning and management processes, that seeks to transform the use of existing and design of new urban systems in ways that diversify their functions, anticipate new uses and enhance adaptability, to better meet the social, economic and ecological needs of cities under conditions of deep uncertainty about the future.

This approach has the potential to substantially complement and augment conventional urban development, replacing predictability, linearity and monofunctional design with anticipation of uncertainty and non-linearity and design for multiple, potentially shifting functions. Urban tinkering can function by promoting a diversity of small-scale urban experiments that, in aggregate, lead to large-scale often playful innovative solutions to the problems of sustainable development. Moreover, the tinkering approach is naturally suited to exploring multi-functional uses and approaches (e.g., bricolage) for new and existing urban structures and policies through collaborative engagement and analysis. It is thus well worth exploring as a means of delivering co-benefits for environment and human health and wellbeing. Indeed, urban tinkering has close ties to systems approaches, which often are recognized as critical to sustainable development. We believe this concept can help forge much-closer, much-needed ties among engineers, architects, evolutionary ecologists, health specialists, and numerous other urban stakeholders in developing innovative, widely beneficial solutions for society and contribute to successful implementation of SDG11 and the New Urban Agenda.

     

Geographic distribution of selected elements in the livers of polar bears from Greenland, Canada and the United States

To assess geographic distributions of elements in the Arctic we compared essential and non-essential elements in the livers of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) collected from five regions within Canada in 2002, in Alaska between 1994 and 1999 and from the northwest and east coasts of Greenland between 1988 and 2000. As, Hg, Pb and Se varied with age, and Co and Zn with gender, which limited spatial comparisons across all populations to Cd, which was highest in Greenland bears. Collectively, geographic relationships appeared similar to past studies with little change in concentration over time in Canada and Greenland for most elements; Hg and Se were higher in some Canadian populations in 2002 as compared to 1982 and 1984. Concentrations of most elements in the polar bears did not exceed toxicity thresholds, although Cd and Hg exceeded levels correlated with the formation of hepatic lesions in laboratory animals.     

Bioaccumulation and biotransformation of brominated and chlorinated contaminants and their metabolites in ringed seals (Pusa hispida) and polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from East Greenland

We report on the comparative bioaccumulation, biotransformation and/or biomagnification from East Greenland ringed seal (Pusa hispida) blubber to polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissues (adipose, liver and brain) of various classes and congeners of persistent chlorinated and brominated contaminants and metabolic by-products: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlordanes (CHLs), hydroxyl (OH-) and methylsulfonyl (MeSO₂-) PCBs, polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), OH-PBBs, polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) flame retardants and OH- and methoxyl (MeO-) PBDEs, 2,2-dichloro-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethene (p,p′-DDE), 3-MeSO₂-p,p′-DDE, pentachlorophenol (PCP) and 4-OH-heptachlorostyrene (4-OH-HpCS). We detected all of the investigated contaminants in ringed seal blubber with high frequency, the main diet of East Greenland bears, with the exception of OH-PCBs and 4-OH-HpCS, which indicated that these phenolic contaminants were likely of metabolic origin and formed in the bears from accumulated PCBs and octachlorostyrene (OCS), respectively, rather than being bioaccumulated from a seal blubber diet. For all of the detectable sum of classes or individual organohalogens, in general, the ringed seal to polar bear mean BMFs for ΣPCBs, p,p′-DDE, ΣCHLs, ΣMeSO₂-PCBs, 3-MeSO₂-p,p′-DDE, PCP, ΣPBDEs, total-(α)-HBCD, ΣOH-PBDEs, ΣMeO-PBDEs and ΣOH-PBBs indicated that these organohalogens bioaccumulate, and in some cases there was tissue-specific biomagnification, e.g., BMFs for bear adipose and liver ranged from 2 to 570. The blood-brain barrier appeared to be effective in minimizing brain accumulation as BMFs were ≤ 1 in the brain, with the exception of ΣOH-PBBs (mean BMF = 93 ± 54). Unlike OH-PCB metabolites, OH-PBDEs in the bear tissues appeared to be mainly accumulated from the seal blubber rather than being metabolic formed from PBDEs in the bears. In vitro PBDE depletion assays using polar bear hepatic microsomes, wherein the rate of oxidative metabolism of PBDE congeners was very slow, supported the probability that accumulation from seals is the main source of OH-PBDEs in the bear tissues. Our findings demonstrated from ringed seal to polar bears that organohalogen biotransformation, bioaccumulation and/or biomagnification varied widely and depended on the contaminant in question. Our results show the increasing complexity of bioaccumulated and in some cases biomagnified, chlorinated and brominated contaminants and/or metabolites from the diet may be a contributing stress factor in the health of East Greenland polar bears.