Modelling the global heat balance

A previous model of the global heat balance has been expanded by including the influence of SO₂ pollution, water content of the atmosphere and cloudiness. It was found that the previous results were not changed significantly by this expansion of the model. The conclusions set up uising the previous model were still valid: (1) it is great importance to include the buffer capacity of the sea, including its dependence on pH and the temperature; (2) it is of importance to include natural climatic variations; (3) the dominanting factor is the trend in the consumption of fossil fuel.     

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.     

Biological assessment of bisphenol A degradation in water following direct photolysis and UV advanced oxidation

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) are exogenous environmental chemicals that can interfere with normal hormone function and present a potential threat to both environmental and human health. The fate, distribution and degradation of EDCs is a subject of considerable investigation. To date, several studies have demonstrated that conventional water treatment processes are ineffective for removal of most EDCs and in some instances produce multiple unknown transformation products. In this study we have investigated the use of direct photolysis with low-pressure (LP) Hg UV lamps and UV+hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) advanced oxidation process (AOP) for the degradation of a prototypic endocrine disrupter, bisphenol A (BPA), in laboratory water. Removal rates of BPA and formation of degradation products were determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. Changes in estrogenic activity were evaluated using both in vitro yeast estrogen screen (YES) and in vivo vitellogenin (VTG) assays with Japanese medaka fish (Oryzias latipes). Our results demonstrate that UV alone did not effectively degrade BPA. However, UV in combination with H(2)O(2) significantly removed BPA parent compound and aqueous estrogenic activity in vitro and in vivo. Removal rates of in vivo estrogenic activity were significantly lower than those observed in vitro, demonstrating differential sensitivities of these bioassays and that certain UV/AOP metabolites may retain estrogenic activity. Furthermore, the UV/H(2)O(2) AOP was effective for reducing larval lethality in treated BPA solutions, suggesting BPA degradation occurred and that the degradation process did not result in the production of acutely toxic intermediates.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Poaching, enforcement, and the efficacy of marine reserves.

Marine reserves are promoted as an effective supplement to traditional fishery management techniques of harvest quotas and effort limitation. However, quantitative fishery models have ignored the impact of noncompliance (poaching). Here we link a model of a harvested fish population to a game-theoretic representation of fisherman behavior to quantify the effect of poaching on fishery yield and the enforcement effort required to maintain any desired level of reserve effectiveness. Although higher fish densities inside reserves will typically entice fishermen to poach, we show that the initial investment in enforcement efforts provides the greatest return on maintaining the benefits of the reserve to the fishery. Furthermore, we find that poaching eliminates the positive effect of fish dispersal on yield that is predicted by traditional models that ignore fisherman behavior. Our results broaden a fundamental insight from previous models of marine reserves, the effective equivalence of the harvest quota and reserve fraction, to the more realistic scenario in which fishermen attempt to maximize their economic payoffs.     

Why insects swarm: testing the models for lek mating systems on swarming Empis borealis females

Summary Female dance-flies, Empis borealis L., gather to swarm, and males carrying nuptial gifts visit swarms for mating. Field observations and experiments were performed on this behaviorally sex-role reversed species to test models of lekking behavior. The key predictions were: (1) female preference model: male visiting rate and mating rate should increase with the number of females in swarm (swarm size), (2) hotspot model: male visiting rate should be independent of swarm size, and (3) hotshot model: swarm size should be positively correlated with the body size of the largest female in swarm. We found that male visiting rate and mating rate increased with swarm size, and that mating rate per female increased with swarm size. Males also mated more often in larger swarms than in smaller ones. Both males and females visited swarm sites even in the absence of other individuals. When females were successively removed from swarm sites more males than females on average arrived at these sites: 2.25 males per female. When no individuals were present at the swarm site, arriving males moved on to another site, whereas arriving females generally stayed. Larger experimental swarm-markers attracted both more males and more females and even more males when swarming females were present. There was no correlation between mean or median female size in swarms and the number of females in swarms. Thus, the female preference model and the hotspot model were corroborated, while other models were judged unlikely to explain swarming behavior in E. borealis. Correspondence to: B.G. Svensson     

No cultural transmission of species recognition between parents and offspring in free-living great tits and blue tits

Imprinting plays a key role in the development of species recognition, with young imprinting upon the morphological characters of their parents. However, the potential role that cultural transmission might play in species recognition remains largely uninvestigated. Great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) do not normally perceive each other as sexual competitors or potential partners. However, after reciprocal interspecific cross-fostering, both species may perceive individuals of the foster species as potential rivals or mates. Although the experience of being raised by heterospecifics clearly has affected the species recognition of cross-fostered birds, some of them breed naturally with conspecifics. The offspring of such cross-fostered birds (OCF) are hence raised by parents that look like ordinary conspecifics but display deviant species recognition as compared to controls in terms of aggressive response towards rivals. Comparing the aggressive behavior of OCF, cross-fostered birds and controls towards territorial intruders may thus help tease apart the influence of morphological vs behavioral cues of parents in the development of offspring species recognition. To this end, we compared birds from all three treatments with respect to their aggressive response to territorial intruders of both species during the breeding season. OCF and controls did not differ in their pattern of response towards heterospecific and conspecific stimuli. Compared to cross-fostered birds, OCF and controls showed less aggression towards heterospecific intruders, while the response towards conspecific intruders did not differ between treatments. These results demonstrate that both tit species imprint on the morphological characters of their parents, but that parental behavior is not important for the development of species recognition in terms of aggressive response towards territorial intruders.     

Economic assessment of the negative impacts of ozone on crop yields and forest production. A case study of the estate Ostads Säteri in southwestern Sweden

Ground level ozone concentrations, in combination with the prevailing climate, at the estate Ostads S?teri in southwestern Sweden were estimated to reduce the yield of wheat and potato ranging between 5% and 10%. Occasionally, in years with the highest ozone concentrations and/or climatic conditions favoring high rates of ozone uptake to the leaves, yield loss levels above 10% may occur. Based on simple extrapolation, these ozone-induced reductions of crop yields at Ostads S?teri represent a potential total annual yield loss in Sweden in the range of 24.5 million Euro for wheat and 7.3 million Euro for potato, respectively. A simulation of forest growth at Ostad S?teri predicted that prevailing mean ozone exposure during 1993-2003 had the potential to reduce forest growth by 2.2% and the economic return of forest production by 2.6%. Using this value for extrapolation to the national level, the potential annual economic loss for Sweden due to negative impacts of ozone on forest production would be in the range of 56 million Euro (2004 prices).