Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

Simultaneous CO2 injection and water production to optimise aquifer storage capacity

The estimates for geological CO₂ storage capacity worldwide vary, but it is generally believed that the capacity in saline aquifers will be sufficient for the amounts of CO₂ that will need to be stored. The effort required to select and qualify a geological storage site for safe storage will, however, be significant and storage capacity may be a limited resource regionally. Both from a economic and resource management perspective it is therefore important that potential storage sites are exploited to their full potential.In static capacity estimates, where the maximum stored amount of CO₂ is given as a fraction of the formation pore volume, typically arrive at efficiency factors in the range of a few per cents. Recent work has shown that when the dynamic behaviour of the injected CO₂ is taken into account, the efficiency factor will be reduced because of the increase in pore pressure in the region around the injection well(s). The increase in pore pressure will propagate much further than the CO₂. The EU directive on geological CO₂ storage specifically addresses the restriction that will apply when different storage sites are interacting due to pressure communication. Consequently, the pore pressure increase at the boundary of the storage license area will be an important limiting factor for the amount of CO₂ that can be injected.One obvious method to control the pore pressure is to produce water from the aquifer at some distance from the CO₂ injection wells. This paper discusses results from simulations of CO₂ injection in two aquifers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf; the Johansen aquifer and the southern part of the Utsira aquifer. These aquifers are candidates for injection of CO₂ shipped out via pipeline from the Norwegian West Coast. The injected amounts of CO₂ over a period of 50 years are 0.518 Gtonne for the Johansen aquifer and 1.04 Gtonne for the Utsira aquifer.Several design options for the injection operations are investigated: Injection of CO₂ without water production; injection into several wells to distribute the injected fluids and reduce the local pressure increase around each injection well; and injection with simultaneous production of water from one or more wells. The boundaries of the aquifer formations are assumed closed in all simulations. The possible consequences of other types of boundary conditions (semi-closed or open) are briefly discussed.     

BENEFITS OF ITERATIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C., METROPOLITAN AREA1

The three largest water utilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) rely on the Potomac River and its reservoirs for water supply. These utilities have committed to a periodic review of the system's adequacy to meet future demands. In 1990, 1995, 2000, and again in 2004 (for publication in 2005) the utilities requested that the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) conduct a 20‐year water demand and resource adequacy study to fulfill this need. The selection of the five‐year interval provides multiple benefits. It allows regular updates and incorporation of recent demographic forecasts, and it increases visibility and understanding of the adequacy of the region's water resources. It also provides adequate time to conduct research on the physical system and to incorporate modifications based on this research into subsequent studies. The studies and lessons learned are presented in this case study of the WMA. The work has been a natural outgrowth of a long history of cooperative water supply planning and management among the main WMA water utilities and ICPRB.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Extended prediction models for crashes at roundabouts

This paper builds upon the results of previously developed crash prediction models for roundabouts. The originally investigated sample was extended from 90 to 148 roundabouts. Poisson and gamma modelling techniques were used, the latter ones since underdispersion in the crash data was observed. Separate models were fit for crashes with six different types of road users: bicyclists, motorcyclists, passenger and heavy four-wheel vehicles, moped riders and pedestrians. A further distinction was made between single-vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes.The results show that the overall number of crashes is more or less proportional to the number of motorized vehicles. The mean number of single-vehicle crashes per passing vehicle is lower on busier roundabouts. Confirmation is found for the existence of a ‘safety-in-numbers’ effect for different types of road users. Three-leg roundabouts tend to perform worse than roundabouts with four or more legs. More crashes seem to occur at roundabouts with bypasses for traffic in some direction. Larger central islands correlate with more single-vehicle crashes. Moped riders and motorcyclists are strongly overrepresented in both single-vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes whereas bicyclists are clearly overrepresented in multiple-vehicle crashes. Roundabouts with cycle paths perform better than roundabouts with other types of cycle facilities, particularly in comparison with roundabouts with cycle lanes close to the roadway.     

Zeolites relieves inhibitory stress from high concentrations of long chain fatty acids

Protein and fat rich slaughterhouse waste is a very attractive waste stream for the production of biogas because of the high biochemical methane potential of the substrate. The material has however some drawbacks as the sole material for biogas production due to the production of several process disturbing metabolites such as ammonia, sulfides and long chain fatty acids. We can in this work present results that show that zeolites have the potential to relieve inhibitory stress from the presence of long chain fatty acids. Moreover, the results strongly indicate that it is mainly acetic acid consumers that are most negatively affected by long chain fatty acids and that the mechanism of stress relief is an adsorption of long chain fatty acids to the zeolites. In addition to this, it is shown that the effect is immediate and that only a small amount of zeolites is necessary to cancel the inhibitory effect of long chain fatty acids.     

Does Organic Farming Face Distinctive Livestock Welfare Issues? – A Conceptual Analysis

The recent development and growth oforganic livestock farming and the relateddevelopment of national and internationalregulations has fueled discussions amongscientists and philosophers concerning theproper conceptualization of animal welfare.These discussions on livestock welfare inorganic farming draw on the conventionaldiscussions and disputes on animal welfare thatinvolve issues such as different definitions ofwelfare (clinical health, absence of suffering,sum of positive and negative experiences,etc.), the possibility for objective measuresof animal welfare, and the acceptable level ofwelfare. It seems clear that livestock welfareis a value-laden concept and that animalwelfare science cannot be made independent ofquestions of values and ethics. The questioninvestigated here is whether those values thatunderpin organic farming, in particular, alsoaffect the interpretation of livestock welfare,and, if so, how. While some of the issuesraised in connection with organic farming arerelatively uncontroversial, others are not. Theintroduction of organic farming values seems tointroduce new criteria for what counts as goodanimal welfare, as well as a different ethicalbasis for making moral decisions on welfare.Organic farming embodies distinctive systemicor communitarian ethical ideas and the organicvalues are connected to a systemic conceptionof nature, of agriculture, of the farm, and ofthe animal. The new criteria of welfare arerelated to concepts such as naturalness,harmony, integrity, and care. While the organicvalues overlap with those involved in theconventional discussion of animal welfare, someof them suggest a need to set new prioritiesand to re-conceptualize animal welfare – forexample, with respect to ``naturalness,' inrelation to the possibilities for expression ofnatural behavior and in relation to animalintegrity as a concept for organismic harmony.The organic perspective also seems to suggest awider range of solutions to welfare problemsthan changes in farm routines or operations onthe animals. The systemic solutions include thechoice and reproduction of suitable breeds,changes in the farm structure, and changes inthe larger production and consumption system – including consumer perceptions andpreferences. But the organic values may alsocall for sacrifices of individual welfare in aconventional sense in order to advance welfarefrom the perspective of organic farming.Whether this is good or bad cannot be decidedwithout entering into an inquiry and discussionof the values and ethics involved.     

Elevated cadmium concentrations in potato tubers due to irrigation with river water contaminated by mining in Potosí, Bolivia

Risk of cadmium (Cd) in the human food chain in Cd-contaminated areas is often limited by phytotoxicity from zinc (Zn) that is associated with the Cd contamination. A semiarid area, 60 km downstream of a tin mine in Bolivia, was surveyed where irrigation with Cd-contaminated river water (65-240 microg Cd L(-1)) has increased median soil Cd to 20 mg kg(-1) while median soil Zn was only about 260 mg kg(-1). Cadmium concentrations in potato tubers increased from background values (0.05 mg kg(-1) dry wt.) in soils irrigated with spring water to a median value of 1.2 mg kg(-1) dry wt. in the affected area. Median concentration of Cd in soil solutions was 27 microg L(-1) and exceeded the corresponding value of Zn almost twofold. Soil-extractable chloride ranged from 40 to 1600 mg Cl(-) kg(-1) and was positively correlated with soil total Cd. Increasing soil solution Cl(-) decreased the solid-liquid distribution coefficient of Cd in soil. Soil total Cd explained 64% of the variation of tuber Cd concentration while only 3% of the variation was explained by soil extractable Cl(-) (n = 49). The estimated dietary Cd intake from potato consumption by the local population is about 100 microg d(-1) which exceeds the WHO recommended total daily intake. It is concluded that the food chain risk of Cd in the irrigation water of the semiarid area is aggravated by the association with Cl(-) and, potentially, by the relatively large Cd/Zn ratio.