Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city–state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213–414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313–534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30–38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.     

Efficacy of extracting indices from large‐scale acoustic recordings to monitor biodiversity

Passive acoustic monitoring could be a powerful way to assess biodiversity across large spatial and temporal scales. However, extracting meaningful information from recordings can be prohibitively time consuming. Acoustic indices (i.e., a mathematical summary of acoustic energy) offer a relatively rapid method for processing acoustic data and are increasingly used to characterize biological communities. We examined the relationship between acoustic indices and the diversity and abundance of biological sounds in recordings. We reviewed the acoustic‐index literature and found that over 60 indices have been applied to a range of objectives with varying success. We used 36 of the most indicative indices to develop a predictive model of the diversity of animal sounds in recordings. Acoustic data were collected at 43 sites in temperate terrestrial and tropical marine habitats across the continental United States. For terrestrial recordings, random‐forest models with a suite of acoustic indices as covariates predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds with high accuracy (R² ≥ 0.94, mean squared error [MSE] ≤170.2). Among the indices assessed, roughness, acoustic activity, and acoustic richness contributed most to the predictive ability of models. Performance of index models was negatively affected by insect, weather, and anthropogenic sounds. For marine recordings, random‐forest models poorly predicted Shannon diversity, richness, and total number of biological sounds (R² ≤ 0.40, MSE ≥ 195). Our results suggest that using a combination of relevant acoustic indices in a flexible model can accurately predict the diversity of biological sounds in temperate terrestrial acoustic recordings. Thus, acoustic approaches could be an important contribution to biodiversity monitoring in some habitats.     

NitroGenius:氮决策支持系统--荷兰氮污染问题最佳解决方案的一个游戏模拟实验

利用计算机模拟的方法,我们为第二届国际氮会议研制开发了一个游戏形式的氮决策支持系统.研制这一系统的目的是:①使科学工作者和决策者们都能认识到荷兰氮污染问题的复杂性,因为荷兰是一个农业、工业和运输业活动密集的区域;②探索以最低的社会经济代价解决氮污染的最佳方案.NitroGenius由有关时空范围内的氮流动模型组成,其中包括氨和氮氧化合物的释放及其对地表水和地下水的污染.NitroGenius中还包括了一个经济模型,它描述了各个重要经济部门之间的关系,以及不同氮排放控制措施对国民生产总值(GDP)、失业率、能源消耗和环境的影响.在第二次国际氮会议期间,大约有50个研究组对NitroGenius进行了测试,结果表明,如果认真进行计划并选择适当的治理措施,就能够以适当的代价解决荷兰的氮污染问题.     

Tanzania's vanishing rain forests — assessment of nature conservation values, biodiversity and importance for water catchment

The rain forests of Tanzania occupy small areas, mostly confined to isolated mountains. Except for some isolated volcanic mountains (Mt. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Meru, the Ngorongoro Crater), most of the rain forests are confined to the so-called Eastern Arc mountains with old crystalline bedrocks. The Eastern Arc rain forests are characterized by high biodiversity, and have large numbers of endemic and rare taxa of plants and animals. The submontane and montane rain forests are extremely important water catchments, providing water for major cities and densely populated rural areas. Most of the rain forest catchments are forest reserves, but still the human impact around and inside the reserves is considerable. Intensive cultivation due to heavy population pressure affects the reserves from all sides, leaving the forests isolated, fragmented ‘islands’ surrounded by the cultural landscape. Former timber production and logging programs initiated by the State and some foreign development organizations have depleted large areas of rain forests, e.g. in the Usambara Mountains. Extensive, destructive, legal and illegal activities such as, e.g. logging, pit-sawing and grazing have taken place inside most of the forest reserves. Some research programs on rain forest catchments are now being carried out in Tanzania, forming a basis for future management and monitoring of the forest reserves. The forest authorities are currently much concerned about the problems, giving catchment forest management highest priority in the Tropical Forestry Action Plan.     

Heterogeneity shapes invasion: host size and environment influence susceptibility to a nonnative pathogen.

Theoretical study of invasion dynamics has suggested that spatial heterogeneity should strongly influence the rate and extent of spreading organisms. However, empirical support for this prediction is scant, and the importance of understanding heterogeneity for real-world systems has remained ambiguous. This study quantified the influence of host and environmental heterogeneity on the dynamics of a 19-year disease invasion by the exotic and fatal pathogen, Phytophthora lateralis, within a stream population of its host tree, Port Orford cedar (Chamaecyparis lawsoniana). Using dendrochronology, we reconstructed the invasion history along a 1350-m length of infected stream, which serves as the only route of pathogen dispersal. Contrary to theoretical predictions, the temporal progression of the disease invasion was not related to a host's downstream spatial position, but instead was determined by two sources of heterogeneity: host size and proximity to the stream channel. These sources of heterogeneity influenced both the epidemic and endemic dynamics of this pathogen invasion. This analysis provides empirical support for the influence of heterogeneity on the invasion dynamics of a commercially important forest pathogen and highlights the need to incorporate such natural variability into both invasion theory and methods aimed at controlling future spread.     

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate

A submodel for anaerobic mud-water exchange of phosphate is obtained from experiments in the laboratory. Phosphorus in the sediment can be divided into exchangeable and non-exchangeable phosphorus. The exchangeable phosphorus is decomposed in accordance with a first-order reaction. The phosphorus moves, after the decomposition process, from the interstitial water to the water phase, in accordance with a diffusion expression. The yearly increase of the sediment was determined by means of the lead concentration as a function of the depth.     

Modelling the global cycle of carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus and their influence on the global heat balance

A model for the accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere has been set up, taking into consideration: (1) the global cycle of nitrogen and phosphorus: (2) the CO₂-diffusion in the oceans with means of a multilayer ?ea model; (3) the ability of the oceans to take up CO₂; (4) the influence of the CO₂-concentrations and of the temperature on this ability; (5) different growth rates for the consumption of fossil fuel including logistic growth; (6) the natural climatic variation.It is shown to be essential to include all these factors. The inclusion of factors (4) and (6), which have been omitted in many previous publications, is very essential to the model.     

Do female roe deer in good condition produce more sons than daughters

In polygynous roe deer Capreolus capreolus, males are only slightly heavier than females and the overall sex ratio at birth is close to unity. We studied offspring sex ratio and litter size (range 1–4, n = 74) of culled females, in utero, which provided an opportunity to examine responses of sex ratio to maternal condition. Male embryos were heavier than their sisters, and male fawns (9 months old) heavier than female fawns, suggesting a higher growth rate in males. There was no evidence for differential mortality between the sexes from birth to 9 months old. Heavier adult females produced larger embryos than lighter, or primiparous females. The overall sex ratio of embryos did not differ from unity, but adult does had more male embryos (55%) than primiparous does (32%), and the proportion of male embryos in a litter increased with the mother's body mass. Litter size also tended to increase with maternal age and body mass. We argue that this pattern reflects adaptive variation in offspring sex ratio.     

Formation and emission of chloroanisoles as indoor pollutants

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Complaints by residents of frame-houses about musty odour in the houses has become an increasing problem within the last years. An additional problem is that the odour is transferred to clothes and skin. The persons themselves do not recognize the smell after a while because of adaptation. Serious social problems are the result. For a long time, the smell was explained to be from mould due to construction-based humidity problems. However, in an increasing number of houses, no indications were found for elevated levels of mould growth. METHODS: Air and material samples were taken from 5 houses, which show typical musty odours, and analysed with respect to chlorophenols and chloroanisoles. Additionally, some samples were analysed for lindane and its metabolites, because lindane was commonly used together with pentachlorophenol (PCP) for wood protection. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Meticulous analysis resulted in the identification of chloroanisoles, mainly 2,3,4,6-tetrachloroanisole. These substances are known from corky wines and from contamination of food from pentachlorophenol (PCP) treated pallets and result from microbiological metabolic processes. Pentachlorophenol was commonly used to protect wood from fungi in Germany mainly in the later 60s and 70s. Details of these processes, as well as effective methods to identify chloroanisoles in the problem houses, are described. CONCLUSIONS: Chloroanisoles formed by metabolism of PCP have been well known to contaminate food or wine. Here, they were identified and are probably responsible for the musty odours in the frame houses. Since it is quite clear that these substances were not components of building materials used in the houses, an explanation for chloroanisole formation is proposed. Localized dampness probably favours microbial growth associated with metabolic conversion of chlorophenols to the corresponding chloroanisoles, primarily 2,3,4,6-tetrachloroanisol, which spread throughout the buildings, resulting in the observed odours. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The group of chloroanisoles has been recognized as important indoor pollutants as they possess musty odours at extremely low concentrations, e.g. for 2,4,6-trichloroanisole in a range of 5-10 ppt in air (Staples 2000). On the basis of currently available toxicological data, exposure of the occupants to the concentrations of chloroanisoles measured is not associated with a health risk. No correlation could be observed between concentrations of chloroanisoles and PCP in house dust and indoor air. However, chloroanisoles are good indicators for possible PCP-treatment of wood in frame houses and their detection should initiate investigations on PCP contamination. Research is continuing to identify the microorganisms involved and to devise a remediation procedure for affected houses.